“Choice,” “Chance,” “Change.” You must make a “Choice” To take a “Chance,” or your life will never “Change.” – Author Unknown.
Week 13 ‘Pick-Six‘ Picks:
1) Bryce Young QB, CAR $4,900 – Bryce Young ($4,900) is my super large-field tournament flier of the week. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 Draft hasn’t lived up to his draft capital and might never. However, he has an excellent matchup against the Bucs pass funnel defense. We also know rookies tend to get better throughout the season. The lack of talent around him is probably too much to overcome, but his minuscule price tag and sub-1% ownership make him worth a small chunk of your GPP portfolio. Plus, we want to pay for the cheap seats here because we are going over the fence in two other positions.
2) Christian McCaffrey RB, SF $9,000 – He’s the most expensive option on DraftKings by a wide margin, but Christian McCaffrey has established himself as the top running back option to pay up for every week. He has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregated rankings and the sixth-best points/salary on DraftKings. CMC had two touchdowns and ran for 114 yards on Thanksgiving night in the 49ers’ win over the Seahawks. He has scored a touchdown in all but one of his 11 games this season, totaling 16 touchdowns while averaging 85.4 rushing yards and 35.4 receiving yards per game. Even though he is always highly-priced, McCaffrey has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four of his last five games and eight of 11 games this season. CMC is in a tough matchup against the Eagles, who have limited opposing running backs to just two touchdowns all season. Opposing running backs have only averaged 62.7 rushing yards against the Eagles defense this season. The Eagles have been the best team in the NFL at limiting opposing running backs. However, they did give up 116 rushing yards to the Chiefs running backs and 92 rushing yards to the Bills’ running backs in the last two weeks. Buffalo’s running backs also added nine catches for 75 yards. The matchup is still tricky, but there have been signs that there are openings for McCaffrey to find.
3) Tyreek Hill WR, MIA $9,600 – The Dolphins have the highest implied team total on Sunday’s slate, and the matchup should be a great one for Tyreek Hill to continue his fantastic season. Hill has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the three-way aggregated projections. Especially with Keenan Allen (quad) and A.J. Brown (thigh) battling injuries, there aren’t many alternative elite options to consider. Hill brings both elite upside and exceptional consistency in his current role as the focus of Miami’s high-scoring offense. He has averaged an impressive 10.9 targets per game this season and has gotten at least 10 targets in each of his last six games. All those opportunities have led to 8.0 catches for 120.4 receiving yards per game for the speedy receiver. He is a constant big-play threat deep down the field but also stays very involved as the team gets into the red zone. He has scored an NFL-leading 10 receiving touchdowns in his 11 games and also leads the league with seven receptions of 40+ yards. His yardage and touchdown production has been very consistent over the past two months. He has six touchdowns in his last seven games and over 100 yards in three of his last four.
The Commanders are an excellent matchup for Hill. Washington has allowed 18 receiver touchdowns in their 11 games this season and given up 196.25 yards per game, the second-highest mark in the NFL. Last week, the Cowboys receivers put up three touchdowns and 245 yards against Washington, and Hill will look to attack the same weaknesses this week.
Stacking Hill with Tua Tagovailoa is also a good option to consider this week based on this matchup.
4) Brevin Jordon TE, HOU $2,500 – Dalton Schultz has been ruled out for this week’s matchup, thrusting Brevin Jordan into a significant role at a discounted price in a smash matchup. Jordan saw two targets in Schultz’s absence last week after the veteran left the game with his hamstring injury. Jordan should get integrated into the offense with a full week of practice. Denver has allowed the third-most yards per target to opposing tight ends and the most DraftKings points per game. We’ve seen Schultz take up a significant red zone role, with five touchdowns this year. It’s unclear if Jordan will slot right in as a red zone threat or if those targets will disperse elsewhere.
Regardless, this price is far too cheap for Jordan. He laps the position in Points/Salary and projected Plus/Minus.
5) Courtland Sutton, DEN $5,400 – Sutton could not find the end zone last week after finding paydirt in five straight games and in seven of his previous eight. On top of not finding the end zone, he caught only three of six targets for 61 yards. Denver was sitting on a comfortable lead for most of the game, so they didn’t need much passing volume. He gets a matchup to be excited about this week, with Houston allowing the sixth-most yards per target to opposing perimeter receivers. They run primarily zone coverage, while Sutton has a 17% target rate per route run against zone compared to 26% against man coverage. However, this is an enticing game environment, and Sutton is underpriced, ranking atop our models in projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary.
6) Titans DST, TEN $2,800 – They are facing a Colts team that will have enormous chalk in the RB position with Moss, and I am going against it in significant field play. Moss ripped a 51-yard tuddy to the house in their last meeting, and Anthony Richardson was the QB. I like Tennessee at home today.
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