We had a good week with teasers and over last week, hoping to get back on track with the unders. On to another week!
It was fun to have games going all weekend last week, but this week, unfortunately, there are six teams on bye, making it a hard week to find winners. With lots of good QB’s out of action, it seems like a good week for the unders. Lets get back on track with those.
Well try to improve this week and go for the ever-elusive perfect week, good luck and happy winning!
6-point Teaser of the Week:
Dolphins (-2.5) at Commanders – The Dolphins seem to be easy to peg in terms of when to bet them, depending on the team they play. If they play a playoff type them it seems like they are close but no cigar on winning, but when they play non-playoff teams, they tend to “smesh” them like Khabib Nurmagomedov. The Commanders are anything but a playoff team, trading away most of their good defensive players at the deadline while also losing three straight and five of their last six games. The only thing that might be able to stop the Dolphins this week is the weather, but it appears the rain should just be a light drizzle versus a huge downpour. Take the Dolphins to get back to their old ways this week, and who knows, maybe we’ll get another 70 spots.
Texans (+3) vs Broncos – The Broncos are the hottest team in the league (winners of 5 straight), which is why we are going to fade them at their peak. The Broncos have good wins in this streak (wins over Chiefs and Bills), so it’s not as though they are a fluky team, but they have been on the lucky side of their games during this streak, winning the turnover battle 16-2 during this winning streak (also getting Mahomes with the flu). In CJ Stroud’s amazing rookie year season, one of the most underrated stats he has is his lack of turnovers, with only 9 (5 interceptions and 4 fumbles), which is only one more than Wilson. The Texans should come in fired up after losing a huge game last week on a long field goal that could have sent the game to overtime. I see this being a solid back-and-forth battle between two evenly matched teams, but with all of his WRs healthy, I’ll take the more explosive Texans offense over the more meticulous (boring) Denver offense. Give me the young gun in Stroud to take down old man Russ, who, without the extra turnovers, will be able to keep up with the high-powered Texans.
7-point Teaser of the Week:
Jaguars (-3) vs Bengals – This is sadly a lost year for the Bengals with Joe Burrow’s injury, as Jake Browning is clearly not the guy to lead them to the playoffs. On top of already struggling, it now appears Browning may have a wrist injury, which should make it even harder for the Bengals to compete in this game. The Jaguars are not only competing for a division title and playoff spot but they also have an inside track at getting the overall 1 seed in the AFC, which would be huge for them to not have to travel to Baltimore or Kansas City. Moving forward, the Jaguars have the 25th easiest SOS, only topped by the Chiefs, who have the 29th easiest. The team in front of the Jaguars for the 1 seed is the Ravens, who have the hardest SOS left this season, along with having a game against the Jaguars that could go a long way in deciding the AFC 1 seed. All of this is to say the Jaguars should have no problem winning this game by 3 as long as they are not overlooking a Bengals team that seems to already be planning for 2024. Grab this number quickly, as it seems to be rising as well.
Lions (+3) at Saints – When you take a look at the Saints injury report it’s hard not to take the Lions in this spot. The Saints seem to be missing most, if not all, of their big pass catchers (Chris Olave is a game-time decision, but coming back from a concussion that quick can cause reinjury), along with some key defensive members. The Lions’ defense has looked very suspect over the last couple of weeks, but with all of the offensive injuries, I have a hard time seeing the Saints keep up with a dominant Lions offense, especially with Goff getting to play inside in a dome. Also, with the Saints missing Pete Werner and Cam Jordan, it will be very hard for them to stop this top-ranked Lions run game, something that will be key if the Lions get up and want to run out the clock. The Lions also have had extra time to prepare for this game and extra time to let that embarrassing loss on national TV to the Packers fully sink in. I think the Lions come out with their heads on fire to make up for the tough Thanksgiving loss, and with all the injuries, the Saints just don’t have enough firepower to match. Give me the extra 3 points in a game I think the Lions win outright, Restore the Roar!
Bonus Teaser of the Week: 4-Part “Teal” Teaser (7 points):
Dolphins (-1.5) at Commanders/ Jaguars (-3) vs Bengals / Dolphins at Commanders (Over 42.5)/Bengals at Jaguars (under 46) – My girlfriend’s favorite color is teal, so in honor of her I have finally found a week to do a “Teal Teaser”. As stated above, I love the Dolphins and Jaguars this week, so getting them together in a teaser seems like a no-brainer. Adding on the Dolphins and getting an extra 7 points on the over is a good way to make sure we hit the number even if the Commanders offense can’t keep up with Miami. The last leg we will add is the Jaguars under which looked tempting to begin with but with the extra 7 points looks like an amazing play. Remember, under have cashed in 29 of 39 “island games” this season, hitting at an obscene rate of 74.36% in primetime night games.
Overs of the week:
Dolphins at Commanders (Over 49.5) – This game was just too much fun to pass on, even if the weather looks to be a little rainy. The Dolphins have the most fun offense in the league especially when playing a bad defense, enter the 32nd ranked passing defense in the Commanders who somehow gave up 31 points to the New York Giants and Tommy Devito two weeks ago. This Commanders team makes bad QBs look like world beaters so I expect Tua to be able to carve them up, even if his only pass catchers to speak of are Hill and Waddle. The Commanders traded away all of their pass rushers, and when Tua has time in the pocket he is an MVP type QB. The Commanders also have an offense that can help the Dolphins in putting some points on the board. They lead the league in passing over expectation so at the very least the clock should stop a lot to give the Dolphins offense more cracks at big plays. The Dolphins also have no problem running up the score with their dynamic running game, seen earlier in the year when they put up 70 on the Broncos! Take this over and hopefully watch the Dolphins turn back into the offensive juggernaut we saw early in the season.
49ers at Eagles (Over 47) – The biggest risk of this over is that the weather looks to be a little ugly in Philadelphia this weekend, but the weather didn’t stop Hurts and Josh Allen from putting on a show last Sunday. The 49ers are surprise favorites in this game but they will be looking for revenge after getting knocked out the NFC Championship game by these same Eagles. If Vegas is correct and the 49ers take the lead in this game then that plays right into over bettors hands as he showed last week Jalen Hurts is amazing when his team is in comeback mode. Check the weather report before gametime but I love grabbing the over here between two teams battling for the NFC 1 seed. Hopefully they won’t be settling for field goals in this one.
Under’s of the week:
Chiefs at Packers (Under 43) – This seems like a great under spot as the Chiefs overs have been inflated all season due to have Mahomes (even though they have been winning games with their dominate defense this year) and the Packers are coming off a big with over the Lions which may have inflated this line as well. Along with both offenses being overrated, I believe both defenses come in underrated especially the Packers who seem to be getting healthy on defense at the right time. This is also a big under betting spot being a primetime island game, which have hit 29 of 39 unders this year. Casual betters love betting overs and when there is only one game on at night the line seems to get inflated. This is a great combination of when the teams and the situation both add up to taking the under, don’t over think it and grab this line. Also seems like there will be very cold temperatures in Green Bay, some bad weather seems to pay right into our hands here.
Falcons at Jets (Under 33) – These are my two favorite under teams of 2023 but with such a low number can these two really hit the under? My answer is yes, especially with bad rain and wind forecasted for this game as well. This should be a game all about the rushing attacks, defense, and field position which is exactly what we want in an under. The Jets move to Tim Boyle might have somehow been a downgrade from Zach Wilson making the Jets offense basically unwatchable, and that’s when the weather is fine. The Falcons might be able to run the ball against this Jets team which will at least keep the clock going, but they will have a hard time finding any luck in the passing game especially with the bad weather. Grab this number and don’t check back until the end of the game, as this could be the worst game of the year if the weather is as bad as it seems. First team to score may win, an under betters dream.