Week 13 Busts — The Fantasy Files

Week 13 Busts: The Jets defense is bad news for Joe Mixon in a very important Week 13.

IN THE WEEKLY FANTASY UNIT, THERE ARE CRIMES COMMITTED THAT WOULD SHOCK AND APPALL YOU: NEGATIVE POINTS, UNDERWHELMING SUPERSTARS AND OUTRIGHT BUSTS. THESE ARE THE FINDINGS OF ONE MAN ON A MISSION TO EXPOSE THE NFL’S BIGGEST PERPETRATORS BEFORE THEY STRIKE AGAIN. THESE ARE … THE FANTASY FILES

Welcome everyone to Week 13 of the 2019 NFL Season! All across the nation, the preparation for an epic Thanksgiving day of feasting and football is being planned. Turkeys are in the oven, potatoes are being mashed, and six teams are preparing to face-off in one of the NFL’s oldest traditions; the Thanksgiving Day games.

We here at the W.F.U are working overtime to ensure that you all have all the information you’ll need to make sure your fantasy day is just as delicious as your Turkey Day. So, without further ado, let’s take a look at last week’s rundown and see how we performed:

WHERE WE HIT:

• JIMMY GAROPPOLO (18 points)
  • We struggled with where to place Garoppolo in our write up this week. While he certainly played well in real life, he ultimately left most fantasy owners disappointed with his point total. We opted to place him in the bust column by comparison to his elevated performances over the past few weeks. Jimmy G had put up point totals of 28 and 31 in two of the three games leading into this match-up, and because of that most owners were likely let down with only getting 18 from him in a blowout win over Green Bay.
• CHRIS CARSON (7 points)
  • Carson was a predictable casualty of the Eagles run defense in this one. We predicted correctly that Philadelphia would be able to bottle up the Seahawks lead RB, but we didn’t foresee his continued struggles with turnovers. After fumbling twice In two straight plays, Carson was lifted from the game in favor of Rashaad Penny (who scored a 50+ yard TD). Carson’s value in fantasy should take a decent hit moving forward with Penny set to eat into his carry totals.
• JIMMY GRAHAM (1 point)
  • In a game where absolutely nothing was working for the Packers on offense, Jimmy Graham’s lack of speed still stood out. The veteran TE looked like he was stuck in a tar pit all night long against a speedy 49ers defense, and his production matched his level of play. With just one point to his credit, Graham can safely be returned to the waiver wire for someone else to gamble on.

WHERE WE MISSED:

• GOLDEN TATE (10 points)
  • Despite finishing Sunday’s game against the Bears in the league concussion protocol, Golden Tate had himself a fine day at the office for fantasy purposes. The Giants de facto WR1 hauled in 3 balls on 7 targets for 33 yards and a TD. Tate came down hard on the back of his head on the TD grab and his status should be monitored throughout the week as he attempts to get cleared before Sunday’s match-up with the Packers.
• NEW YORK JETS D/ST (18 points)
  • We can genuinely say that no result has shocked us more this season than the result of the Jets/Raiders game this past Sunday. Coming into that game Oakland seemed to have momentum on their side and a chip on their shoulder, and New York just welcomed them into Metlife Stadium with a punch to the face. The Jets defense dominated Oakland in every possible category, sacking Derek Carr once, picking him off, forcing a fumble and scoring a defensive TD. The defenses’ 18 point outing puts a well-deserved exclamation point on a truly impressive month-long stretch for this unit.
• JAMEIS WINSTON (26 points)
  • When it comes to Jameis Winston, most fantasy owners know the deal. He’s liable to be a bust in any given week, and in any given situation, but he’s also one of fantasy football’s most reliable garbage men. Winston reprised his role as garbage man supreme on Sunday against the Falcons. After starting the game with multiple bad INT’s, Winston and his offense rallied back to blowout Atlanta (35-22). Tampa Bay’s offensive line did a great job keeping Winston’s jersey clean (he wasn’t sacked once), and that extra time in the pocket gave him the confidence he needed to mount a comeback. On the year, Winston has thrown for 2 or more INT’s in 6 of 12 contests, and he’ll be a risky play against a frisky Jacksonville team in Week 13.

Now, with that taken care of, let’s see who made the list this week:

QUARTERBACK: PHILIP RIVERS (LA Chargers)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Following a 2018 playoff campaign that saw his name bandied about in fringe MVP consideration, Philip Rivers has fallen off of a cliff in 2019 statistically. The 4-7 Chargers have gone from winning one-score games last year to losing them in equally dramatic fashion, with a good deal of the blame falling squarely on the mistakes of their leader under center.

Rivers’ total fantasy points on the year through 12 weeks (173 points) is over 100 points off his total from last season, and his TD/INT ratio (15 TD/14 INT) is enough to make Jameis Winston blush. He has yet to eclipse 25 fantasy points in a game this season, and has posted totals below 20 in all four games over the past month. To the untrained eye, he could look like a big name value on your league’s waiver wire. Take our advice, and leave him there for someone else to gamble on in Week 13.

RUNNING BACK: JOE MIXON (Cincinnati Bengals)

We made the error of believing the Jets defense (particularly their run defense) was a bit fluky in Week 12. We paid dearly for that mistake (though not as dearly as the Raiders, thank god). We refuse to make the same mistake in Week 13, as New York is set to face off against the win-less Cincinnati Bengals.

Even with the Bengals getting Andy Dalton back under center, their offense has not proven itself to have any level of consistency on a weekly basis. The number one casualty of this lack of explosion has been Joe Mixon. The consensus 2nd round pick in most 2019 drafts has struggled mightily behind a bad offensive line and a revolving door of quarterbacks this season. His 111 total fantasy points through 12 weeks are over 100 points less than his season-long total from 2018, and he’s only reached the end zone once on the ground this season.

It’s nearly impossible to sit Mixon given the price most owners likely paid to acquire him at the start of the year, but this Jets defense is bad news for him in a very important Week 13.

WIDE RECEIVER: DEEBO SAMUEL (San Francisco 49ers)

In a year where the arrival of Kyle Shanahan’s offense and Robert Saleh’s defense have been the primary stories in SF, Deebo Samuel has been quietly making a name for himself.

The rookie speedster has gotten hot over the past few weeks, dropping back to back 8 reception/100+ receiving yard games in weeks Ten and Eleven (against divisional opponents; SEA/ARI). Samuel has scored double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five contests, but he’ll find it difficult to replicate that production against a physical Ravens secondary in Week 13’s marquee matchup. With Sanders still not at 100% due to injury, it’s likely that Samuel will see a healthy dose of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on Sunday afternoon.

That combination has spelled doom for even the best WR’s this year, and it’s a combination that we recommend you avoid facing off against in Week 13.

TIGHT END: DAWSON KNOX (Buffalo Bills)

In yet another down year for the tight end position, most fantasy owners have had to sift through the waiver wire for gold on a weekly basis. One of the more intriguing options this season has been Bills rookie TE Dawson Knox.

At 6’4″, 257 Lbs, the Ole Miss alum has the physical presence of an 18 wheeler running down the field, and he’s begun to pick up speed over the past few weeks. With 6 receptions/69 yards/TD over the past two games, Knox has been a stream worthy candidate against bad defenses (CLE/MIA), but this week he’ll face a different set of circumstances against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas will be desperate to win this game and maintain their lead in the NFC East, and they have the firepower on defense to take Knox out of the equation in the red zone.

With Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander-Esch in coverage, Knox will find it difficult to get open in space on Thanksgiving. Keep the big man out of your line-up on Thursday afternoon.

DEFENSE: MINNESOTA D/ST

After being slowed down for most of the day by Philadelphia in Week 12, and losing ground to Lamar Jackson in the MVP race, we believe Russell Wilson will be more than motivated to attack the Vikings defense on Monday Night.

Minnesota’s defense as a whole has been around league average on the year against opposing quarterbacks, allowing a TD/INT split of (19/9), but they have struggled mightily in 2019 against mobile QB’s. With losses against names like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and even Mitch Trubisky to their credit, the Vikings have shown that they have trouble containing passers once they leave the pocket. Minnesota’s lack of ability to rush a mobile passer combined with the middling play of their secondary will be their undoing against arguably the league’s best dual-threat quarterback in Week 13.

PRIMARY SUSPECT: MARQUISE BROWN (Baltimore Ravens)

This week’s primary suspect takes us back to Week 13’s marquee matchup. A prizefight between the two best teams in the NFL through 12 weeks, the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens are set to put on a show that the whole country is itching to see. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown finds himself in this spot for almost the same reason Deebo Samuel did earlier in the rundown, his matchup is the stuff of nightmares.

As the Ravens WR1, Brown is set to face off against the leader of SF’s secondary (Richard Sherman) and a defense that’s allowed the 2^nd fewest yardage to WR’s on the year (behind only New England). His 2-TD effort this past week against the Rams has lifted confidence in Brown as a weekly performer, but it’s important to not lose perspective of his role in Baltimore’s offense.

The Ravens’ utilization of a run-first/option heavy scheme severely limits Brown’s weekly floor, and that approach has led him to score less than 10 fantasy points in 7 of 12 games in 2019. With a matchup against Sherman and an offense that doesn’t necessarily need him to run smoothly, Brown is a FLEX start at best in this one.