“The mark of an educated man is the ability to make a reasoned guess on the basis of insufficient information.” – Abbott Lawrence Lowell.
Today we are going over player props. No, not the complimentary type. If you want to make more money playing DFS, then do this.
Go to any betting site that has player props and examine those numbers. If you are thinking of paying up or down for a player you feel is required for your lineup construction’s success, look at their player props. Do you want to pay up or down if the player has an over/under 32.5 yards? What will need to happen in that game for a breakout performance vs. Vegas odd makers? If a QB at $6k is projected to do well based on their initial fantasy value, and they have an over/under of 274.5, this is an exciting play. Are the correlating WR expensive? Are they cost-effective as well? Can my QB go full Ginsu knife and dice up the defense? Can the other team keep up with scoring if it turns into a shootout?
Now the final lesson from this strategy. To gain leverage on your picks, look at different sites and review the difference in odds, prop numbers, and the expert consensus on those plays. WRs and TEs can also gain a slight advantage by looking at the O/U on their target/reception props for the game.
Week 13 Review:
1) Joe Burrow QB, CIN $6,900 – The savior of my lineup and helped me win big with a bountiful 30.04 fantasy points.
2) Aaron Jones RB, GB $6,900 – Jones suffered a shin injury and missed most of the second half. Unfortunately, Dillon ate after Jones sat out. Nevertheless, Jones had 10.00 fantasy points and was on pace to do well.
3) Amon-Ra St. Brown WR, DET $7,100 – The sun God made my lineup beam as he smashed the slate with an astonishing 37.60 fantasy point day. He was as hot as the sun and could easily repeat that performance vs. a weak Vikings secondary.
4) Foster Moreau TE, LV $3,600 – 4.20 fantasy points; that’s the perfect score, isn’t it? Too bad his totals weren’t high.
5) Nico Collins WR, $4,200 – Collins did precisely what we needed him to do, 12.50 fantasy points on a budget to allow our boom players to flourish.
6) Steelers DST, PIT $2,600 – 4.00 fantasy points was a surprise as they could only generate one sack and one pick and still managed only to allow 16 points.
Week 14 DraftKings picks
1) Kirk Cousins QB, MIN $6,100 –
I have always enjoyed Kirk Cousins on and off the field. A consistent force in the day and crumbling cobblestone at night. If you haven’t already, his free agent video is one of the best in the NFL series. I highly recommend you watch it, as you will never guess who he calls to inform of his signing with the Vikings.
Why Cousins this week, though? Simple, the Detroit Lions, who give up the 2nd highest fantasy points, are playing the Vikings defense that is the worst in the NFL right now for fantasy points. Cousins has all the tools in place for fireworks today. I am appalled that the Lions are favored, and we must take advantage of his cost and opportunity this week.
2) Miles Sanders RB, PHI $6,200 –
With an implied total of 26 fantasy points, the Eagles should stay ahead in this game. The Giants have shown some flashes in the pan, but the Eagles can keep the lead out of reach, and Sanders should be a big part of it.
There are some chalk RB plays this week, and I feel comfortable pivoting to Miles Sanders. He rules the roost of RBs in the brotherly city and has shown multiple times this season his workhorse capabilities.
3) Mike Evans WR, TB $6,400 –
This is just because I am a Buccaneers fan, and my bias is leaking through like a toxic relationship. Maybe Mike Evans has been underperforming for so long that I want to get in on one of his blow-up games.
On the other hand, Tampa will get the ball back in this game, as Brock Purdy should be in the Christmas spirit, donating turnovers. With all joking aside, the price is right, and people are shying away from Evans. If you look in the $6k range of WRs, I do not see anyone who has the potential to do more than what Evans can do.
4) T.J. Hockenson TE, MIN $5,100 –
“Gorgeous hair is the best revenge.” – Ivana Trump. This game isn’t so much about revenge, as Hockamania was probably excited to get sent to one of the best NFL teams. He sure does have the luscious locks for this week’s dream matchup against a Lions defense that is bottom five for stopping TEs. Ownership will be high, but it’s a play you might have to get on board and see the lineup constructions.
5) Travis Homer RB, $5,000 –
The beneficiary of being the last man standing. Walker and Dallas are out, and Homer is home alone. This is a cautionary play as you are looking at trying to squeeze 20 points out of a $5,000 player. He will have receptions today in addition to getting all the carries.
The Panthers still have teeth on defense, even though the win/loss column may not show it. If Homer can find the endzone and put up anything above a little average, you are in an excellent place for the day.
6) Buccaneers DST, TB $2,900 –
The Cowboys and Steelers are going to be heavily owned, and people think RUN CMC, Deebo, and Kittle will be a threat still. I embrace the challenge as Brock Purdy is nothing to fear. The Buccs are strong against the run, and they will create pressure. Expect a handful of sacks if the Niners try passing in this game. If the Buccs can get the lead, we are also looking at a potential one or two-interception kind of day.