Breaking down all the Week 15 NFL matchups, continuing with Sunday’s main slate and this week’s primetime showdowns. Follow Samantha on Twitter @previtee.
It’s Week 15, meaning there are only three weeks left in the regular season. I don’t know about you, but this season has absolutely flown by for me.
As a special treat, we have two Saturday games (in addition to some NCAA bowl games), so remember to adjust your lineups and wagers accordingly; personally, if it were up to me, there would be football every day, but I’ll settle for Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week.
Please keep in mind that by the time you’re reading this, the line may have shifted depending on breaking news during the week, or money flowing through the market. Congrats to your fantasy teams that have made it to the semi finals and good luck in Week 15!
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Sunday 1:00 PM EST
Washington at Jacksonville, -7.5
The Redskins were curb stomped by *checks notes* the Giants on Sunday 40-16. At 6-7, they have fallen to third place in the NFC East and mathematically have a small chance of making it in as the six seed in the NFC. However, their offensive line has been decimated by injuries and their playoff dreams rest on the back of Josh Johnson after having lost Colt McCoy and Alex Smith to devastating leg injuries and benching Mark Sanchez, which doesn’t quite ameliorate their quarterback situation. On the other side of the ball, the 4-9 Jaguars were defeated 30-9 by AFC South divisional opponents, the Tennessee Titans. They’ve yet to score more than 9 points in their last two games with Cody Kessler under center, who threw for 240 yards and one touchdown on 25 completions last week. Washington has failed to cover their last three straight, but I think 7.5 points are too many for this Jacksonville team. Give me the Redskins to keep it within the touchdown this week.
Pick: Redskins.
Oakland at Cincinnati, -3.5
Jon Gruden’s 3-10 Raiders stole a win from the Steelers last week 24-21, and are proving they can be a nuisance to good teams. They’ll face another AFC North opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, who have fallen to 5-8 and last place in the division. Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel was able to keep it within five points against the Chargers and threw for 170 yards and a touchdown off of 18 completions on 27 attempts. Running back Joe Mixon was featured heavily in this game and combined for 238 offensive yards and a touchdown. Both of these teams are pretty bad at this point in the season, but I think I give the talent edge to Cincinnati. This line suggest it would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field so I will take the Bengals to win by at least a field goal.
Pick: Bengals.
Arizona at Atlanta, -8.5
The Cardinals put up only three points against the Lions last week and fall to 3-10 on the season. Currently jockeying for the top draft pick in 2019, they have little incentive (or ability) to score many points in these remaining three games. On the other side of the ball, the 4-9 Falcons lost 34-20 in Green Bay last week. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw 28 passes on 42 attempts for 262 yards and three touchdowns, two of which went to Julio Jones. This line opened at -7.5 and has moved up to -9/10 at most places, meaning people were loving Atlanta early on. This has been a disappointing season for Atlanta to say the least and they are not playing good football, but Arizona is markedly worse: I’ll begrudgingly take the Falcons to win and cover, but wouldn’t be shocked if Arizona keeps it within the number.
Pick: Falcons.
Tennessee at NY Giants, -2.5
The 7-6 Titans handled the AFC South divisional opponents, the Jacksonville Jaguars, in Week 14 and will travel to the Meadowlands to face off against the 5-8 Giants. Marcus Mariota’s subpar performance was saved by running back Derrick Henry, who rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns on 17 carries. The Giants, meanwhile, pulled off a huge upset, 40-16 win against the Redskins last week due in large part to Saquon Barkley, who had 197 offensive yards and a touchdown. The Giants have covered three straight now, but they’ve only covered one game this year at home (one push). With the Tennessee’s playoff chances still somewhat viable at 27%, per the Upshot, I think they ultimately win this game. Give me the Titans getting the 2.5 points on the road.
Pick: Titans.
Miami at Minnesota, -8.5
A miracle happened in Miami last weekend, and the Dolphins somehow pulled off a last minute walk-off win against the Patriots. With the win, they move to 7-6 on the season and are contenders for the second AFC wild card spot. They will be on the road this week to face a 6-6-1 Vikings team that just fired their offensive coordinator, John DeFilippo, on Tuesday. Quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is still winless on Monday nights, is looking like an $84 million mistake, but the Vikings are stacked with offensive weapons and still find themselves in line for the AFC six seed. This line has moved down to -7 in most places, but I think the Miami Miracle was a fluke, and Cousins bounces back in this spot. Furthermore, the Dolphins have only covered two games this year on the road, which is why I love the Vikings at a touchdown, but will still take it at -8.5.
Pick: Vikings.
Dallas at Indianapolis, -3.5
The 8-5 Cowboys bested NFC East division rivals, the Eagles, 29-23 in overtime last week, securing their foothold as leader of their division by two games. They have quietly won and covered five straight games, thanks in large part to their defense. The 7-6 Colts, on the other hand, halted the Texans’ nine game win streak and are eyeing the last AFC wild card spot. Their offensive line has looked spectacular and allowed quarterback Andrew Luck to throw for 399 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. I think Indy is the better team here, and manages to break another streak – I’m taking the Colts to win by at least the field goal.
Pick: Texans.
Green Bay at Chicago, -5.5
The 5-7-1 Packers picked up a 34-20 win against the Falcons last Sunday and are clinging for dear life, somehow still alive in this playoff race. They’ll face the 9-4 Bears who just pulled off an upset win against the Rams 15-6 and knocked them out of the one seed in the NFC. Their defense was scary good against a team who earlier in the season put up 54 points in one game. Aaron Rodgers may have good history against the Bears, but Soldier Field is looking like a scary place to play these days, as Chicago has covered six of seven home games this year. This line opened at -4 and has jumped up to -5.5/6 in most places, but I’m with the public on this one. I love the Bears to win and cover the 5.5 points.
Pick: Bears.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore, -8.5
Tempers flared in Tampa last weekend as the Buccaneers allowed 28 unanswered points in their loss 28-14 loss to the Saints. They have fallen to 5-8 on the year and will face the 7-6 Ravens, who managed to keep it close against the Chiefs in their 27-24 loss on Sunday. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has looked spectacular, throwing for 147 yards and two touchdowns, as well as 67 yards on the ground. The Ravens are now a half game behind the Steelers and are in a good position to make the playoffs. This line opened at -6 and has moved up to anywhere between -7.5 to -9 with people hammering the Baltimore cover. The Ravens have covered their last three games, and I think they win this one easily, but I’ll take the Buccaneers to keep it within the 8.5 points.
Pick: Buccaneers.
Detroit at Buffalo, -2.5
The 5-8 Lions picked up a 17-3 win on Sunday against the Cardinals, but still sit in last place in the NFC North. They’ll travel to Buffalo for their second straight road game to face the Bills, who have lost their last two. Quarterback Josh Allen threw for 206 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions, but also accrued 101 rushing yards, as well as a rushing touchdown against the Jets last week. Despite their two game skid and 4-9 record, Buffalo has shown promise on the defensive side of the ball, and Josh Allen seems to have given life to their offense and fan base. I don’t know exactly what to make of it when two bad teams play each other, but I’m going to give the edge to Buffalo, who will at least have home field advantage. Give me the Bills to win and cover the 2.5 points.
Pick: Bills.
Sunday 4:05 PM EST
Seattle at San Francisco, +5.5
The 8-5 Seahawks have won four straight games and are a lock for the five seed in the NFC. They’ll be on the road to face NFC West divisional opponents, the San Francisco 49ers, who are 3-10 with their upset win on Sunday against the Broncos. These teams faced off two short weeks ago in a game in which the Seahawks pummeled the 49ers 43-16 in Seattle. This line opened at +4.5 and moved up to +5.5 following Seattle’s big Monday night win against the Vikings, but has moved down to +4/3.5 at most places. I’m very tempted to take the points at home with the 49ers, but with Seattle in the midst of a win streak and having covered three straight games, this is a lay it or don’t play it spot for me. Seahawks win this game handily and cover the 5.5 points on the road.
Pick: Seahawks.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST
New England at Pittsburgh, +2.5
The 7-5-1 Steelers and the 9-4 Patriots come into this matchup both having lost their Week 14 games to the Raiders and Dolphins, respectively, and I feel like we may have entered the twilight zone. In fairness to the Steelers, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger exited the game with a rib injury, missing most of the second half, and kicker Chris Boswell botched another kick, which ended up costing them the game. Roethlisberger says he’ll play in Week 15, but the injury will be something to keep an eye on if pass protection becomes an issue. The Patriots’ Week 14 matchup came down to the last play of the game in which tight end Rob Gronkowski was a defensive substitute, and in a rare Belichick miscue, a “miracle in Miami” happened and the Dolphins scored the go-ahead touchdown. This line opened at +1 and was hammered up to +2.5/3 at most places, with the public of course loving the Patriots in this spot. I don’t think Belichick makes another mistake like that again, and with the Steelers currently in a three game losing streak and Ben’s health, I love the Patriots in this spot to win and cover the points on the road.
Pick: Patriots.
Sunday 8:20 PM EST
Philadelphia at LA Rams, -9.5
The 6-7 Eagles find themselves two games back in the NFC East after losing 29-23 on Sunday to divisional rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. The Rams, on the other hand, took a shocking 15-6 loss to the Bears on Sunday night, and fall to 11-2, which puts them in the two seed for the NFC. Quarterback Jared Goff was held to 20 passes on 44 attempts, 180 yards, zero touchdowns, and four interceptions in a turnover-laden battle, and star running back Todd Gurley broke a lot of fantasy owners’ hearts, rushing for only 28 yards on 11 carries and zero touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has a fractured vertebra and will likely sit out this game. This line opened at -8.5 and has shot up to anywhere between -12 and -14 in light of the quarterback situation. Home field will be crucial to the Rams and Philly hasn’t covered any game as an underdog this year (0-2). I think Jared Goff and Todd Gurley bounce back in a big way here against a defense that has been plagued by injuries all year. This is a big line, but I’m going with the Rams to win and cover the 9.5 points, and would take LA to cover any number under 14.
Pick: Rams.
Monday 8:15 PM EST
New Orleans at Carolina, +6.5
My 6-7 Carolina Panthers find themselves in a five game losing streak which was extended by a 26-20 loss to the Browns on Sunday. Quarterback Cam Newton is dealing with a serious shoulder injury and will probably need surgery in the offseason. With their playoff chances hanging on by a thread, they’ll have to face NFC South divisional opponents, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints, who sit at 11-2 and in the one seed for the NFC, have covered all but one game of seven on the road this year. I don’t see New Orleans taking their foot off the gas with home field advantage far from a lock at this point. With Carolina in a death spiral and Cam’s ailing shoulder, the New Orleans is the only way to look for me – give me the Saints to win and cover the road chalk.
Pick: Saints.
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