Cultivating that early waiver wire priority for a few weeks now; you’ve been making the smart play. Keep that hand steady my friend, now is not the time to go off script. Conversely, I know from personal experience that you’d love to drop Derrick Henry at this point out of pure spite. I get it, I’m here with you! (Get it together Tennessee, Jesus!)
Hodl tight, let things shake out a bit before making massive roster moves or cutting bait. Up until this past Sunday, Ryan Fitzpatrick was available in 97 percent of leagues. I can’t help but shake the feeling that once you say, “I do” to Fitzmagic you’ll be taking a pile driver to the crotch. I have no less than two fingers burned to crispy stumps by sticking them in the electrical socket that is Ryan Fitzpatrick over the years. I have some empirical data to fall back on regarding this subject that tells me to be wary.
You’re not warned in school about the dangers of hype in the NFL. Dad never sat me down and said, “Hey, here is the deal son” as he poured me a glass of brown liquor to talk me through it. A particularly nasty emotion, hype can convince one that much like Dirk Diggler, they’re a big, bright, shining star. A Rock n’ Roll star.
Hype played a critical role in picking up Henry, now it’s playing a lesser, albeit important, role in wanting to dump his ass. An emotion that reigns supreme in The Upside Down of the NFL where facts, trends and statistics are bent; played with and sometimes outright ignored — a trippy bizzaro world that amplifies the worst emotions in us: FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). Acting like a magnified glass, FUD can turn hype into a pulse laser of fire that promises to burn you down if you let it take control of your heart.
I can’t sit here in this comfy arm chair and play call that hype is all bad and that I haven’t fallen victim to it. It’s not and I have. If you were to view the fantasy football landscape as a momentum model, hype is a great initial indicator of movement. Merely let hype grab your attention, though, and don’t let it captivate your mind into overreacting on highs and lows. A captivating tool against the weak-minded, such as yours truly, of that there is zero doubt.
We’ll be looking at hype as an indicator of forward movement in my Week 3 sleeper picks. Who is getting action, taking advantage of their looks and close to the hype bubble without actually being inside of it.
Antonio Callaway, WR, Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $4500 DraftKings: $4400)
You thought the Pats where the winners in the Josh Gordon saga? Think again. With what now appears to be a soft schedule, the rookie Antonio Callaway is in the perfect position to benefit the most in this roster shake up. Temper this a bit as he is still in Cleveland but there is quite a lot of upside here for a guy only picked up in 8 percent of leagues heading into Week 3.
John Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $6200 DraftKings: $4800)
Do you know what anti-hype looks like? Check out the Baltimore Ravens. Their quarterback isn’t sexy. Their defense is a bit removed from their glory days. Their run game isn’t ESPN reel-worthy and their receivers aren’t making gonzo one-handed catches for TDs. They’re ranked third in the league, though, for total points scored. They also come in at sixth in the league for pass yards. I’m not sure I would bring the Ravens home to meet the family, but they’re grinding it out and putting points on the fantasy board. Available in 77 percent of leagues heading into this week, John Brown might make a nice flex stash for your team.
Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta Falcons (FanDuel: $5200 DraftKings: $2900)
Tight ends are in short supply this year. On paper, Austin Hooper is on a pass-happy team that should be using the heck out of him. So far, that is sort of translating. The fact is the Falcons need to find their groove. Whether they do or not remains to be seen. However, if they do, Matty Ice could baptize Hooper as a fantasy god this season.
Dan Bailey, K, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are starting to turn into an offensive powerhouse. They also love kicking field goals. Dan Bailey has the second best kicking conversion rate of all time. Do the math.
Javorius “Buck” Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $4900 DraftKings: $4600)
Buck Allen: the goal line vulture and a bit of a craps roll. I spoke of the Ravens earlier and I will speak of them again. They’re grinding this season out so far. Allen lines up perfectly with this grinder ethos. A goal line back that also likes catching the ball? Yes, please. As the season progresses, backs like Allen will be in short supply. You’ll be begging for him if you are in a 12-team league in the next few weeks.
Will Dissly, TE, Seattle SeaHawks (FanDuel: $4600 DraftKings: $3300)
On that hype bubble, Will Dissly is performing: 6-10, 147 yards and 2 TDs, there isn’t much not to like with him so far. It’s too bad Seattle looks like a total mess right now. However, Dissly is at the top of that heap. He’s much less of a gamble now, and if, say, you’ve got Tyler Eifert, it might not be a bad play to make a roster change.
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $7200 DraftKings: $5700)
Is the Red Rifle the real deal this year? So far it isn’t looking bad provided AJ Green can stay healthy. A lesser Fitzpatrick for me, Andy Dalton has frustrated more than a few Fantasy Manager. What we know for certain thus far this season is he has been doing a decent job bringing home the bacon and his schedule is quite soft for the season. There is some potential here to hit pay dirt that shouldn’t be ignored. Available in 73% of leagues, Dalton makes a solid bench stash to play against match ups.
Crypto Corner (NOT financial advice)
Written Tuesday, Sept. 18
- Mt. Gox is preparing to pay proof of bankruptcy claims to its corporate clients. This amounts to roughly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin ($BTC) that will need to be potentially sold. This news is on the heels of a long dormant Bitcoin wallet, containing in excess of 114k BTC ($700+MM) suddenly becoming active and moving roughly $100MM of funds to Binance to Bitfinex. Tough to say for certain, but it appears the shorts are going to be in big time soon.
- Taking a play out of the Aaron Rogers’ deep bomb for the game playbook, Bitgo became the first government-regulated custodian for Crypto assets for institutional investors. This is a MONSTER play out of South Dakota. Lack of custody in this form has been a thorn in mass adoption for blockchain and crypto assets.
- An employee who handles government and regulator relations for Ripple, not to be confused with XRP, said he expects X-Rapid to go live for commercial application in about a month. X-Rapid uses XRP to bridge currency transactions and possibly considerably increasing daily trading volume. Exciting development but still early stages. Also, don’t forget, XRP is almost impervious to good news.