Week 3 Target Forecast: What can we expect this week in fantasy football from some of the game’s top-pass catchers?
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. SF – Sun 10:00 AM PT
Travis Kelce has seen respectable target amounts of 6 and 10 to start the season. He went highly unnoticed in the first game against the Chargers as Tyreek Hill took over. However, last week he garnered much attention, finding the end zone twice.
Contrary to popular opinion, I don’t love Kelce’s upside here. In the highest projected total of the week, at an astounding 56.5 points, the Chiefs look to score another 4 to 5 touchdowns. However, facing their first non-elite offensive unit of the season, I expect the Chiefs to finally coast to a victory. Kareem Hunt has totaled only 16 and 18 rushing touches thus far, but looks to receive a greater workload as the Chiefs find an early lead and separate themselves from the 49ers by halftime. I would expect Kelce to be in line for premier-looking targets in the first half, but only expect him to be relevant for that part of the game.
I’d expect nothing more than 5-7 targets in this one, but worry he could see even less with game flow playing to his disadvantage.
Kenny Golladay (DET) vs. NE – Sun 5:20 PT
Starting off the season with a 13 rec. / 203 yards / 1 TD stat line, Kenny Golladay is on pace for career high totals of 111 rec. / 1,726 yds. / 9 TD’s. Targeted 21 times thus far in two games, Golladay looks to keep pace in a high scoring affair against the New England Patriots. In what projects to be the third highest total of Sunday (52.5 points), the Lions will likely be airing it out in an attempt to keep pace with the Patriots.
Part of the reason for Golladay’s early season success has been the Lions inability to gain or sustain a lead. Thus far, the Lions have trailed by multiple scores in each of their two games played. With this not likely to change, Golladay’s target share looks to maintain shape through Week 3. Don’t fear you’re chasing points in playing him this week.
Adam Thielen (BUF) vs. MIN – Sun 10:00 AM PT
The addition of Kirk Cousins has helped create great production for Adam Thielen. Last week, Thielen saw a team-high 13 targets and generated an opportunistic 12 rec. / 131 yds. / 1 TD stat line. The week prior he was also a key piece in the Minnesota offense, catching 6 balls for 102 yards on 12 targets.
While he’s gotten off to an extremely hot start, reality should strike him this week. The Buffalo Bills are front-runners for the worst team in the NFL. They’ve scored a combined 23 points in two weeks and have given up 78 points to opposing teams. This seems like a great spot for Thielen, but with the Vikings likely to get up by double digits before halftime, there’s going to be no use for Thielen after long. Keenan Allen was a prime example of this last week, as the star wideout saw only 8 targets in a game where the Chargers scored 31 points against the Bills. Look for Thielen’s targets to diminish towards 6-8 as Dalvin Cook and the running game takes precedent.
Geronimo Allison (GB) vs. WAS – Sun 10:00 AM PT
One of the least talked about players that deserves good attention, Geronimo Allison has subtly produced very well for fantasy owners. He’s seen 8 and 6 targets in his first two games and has produced efficiently in both. The Packers running game has yet to take shape and doesn’t seem to be a threat to the passing attack going forward (though Aaron Jones is back from suspension this week).
Facing a Redskins defense where Davante Adams will see plenty of Josh Norman, I expect Allison to be a consistent factor in this one and 6-8 targets seems like a realistic projection. He could flirt with these kinds of numbers all season long.
Allen Robinson (CHI) vs. ARI – Sun 1:25 PT
Allen Robinson has produced as most expected functioning as the Bears No 1 wideout. Receiving 21 targets, he’s caught 14 balls for 144 receiving yards. Concerningly, though, he’s been unable to find the end zone.
This week, I hate his matchup. Facing off against Patrick Peterson, Robinson will have a much harder test than his last two opponents: the Packers and Seahawks. The Cardinals boast one of the worst run defenses in the league and I fully expect Jordan Howard to get a larger workload here. Robinson is a significant downgrade in what will likely be a very low-scoring and slow game. I expect his targets to be in the 5-7 range, but even if he were to see 10 balls thrown his way, I wouldn’t expect him to catch any more than 4-5 of them.