Need a quick catchup on what to expect in a few of Week 5’s key matchups? Here’s how I see Sunday playing out for some teams, and what the fantasy impact will be.
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Even though the game is at Baltimore I think this is where Cincinnati starts to separate itself from the rest of the AFC North. The implied total here has home team Baltimore winning 26 to 23, but I believe this is where Cincinnati’s superior talent takes over – barring a super-human effort by Lamar Jackson (also totally possible). The Browns, Ravens, and Broncos are all tied at 2-2 currently so both teams are going to be super motivated to get a leg up in the divisional race.
A shootout seems possible considering both teams have high-powered offenses, but there is a pretty sizable difference between these two teams on the defensive side. Currently, Cincinnati ranks 8th in the NFL giving up 17.5 points per game. Baltimore is 23rd giving up 25 points per game. Cincinnati is also 4th in rushing defense at 85 yards per game so if Lamar Jackson is going to get it done, it’ll more likely be through the air. Cincinnati also has a good pass rush so I don’t think Jackson will be able to sit back there very long waiting for deep passes to develop.
I think Baltimore’s lack of pass rush will be the difference here as Burrow should be able to take his time picking apart the Ravens, including deep shots. Lamar Jackson won’t have that luxury against a good Bengals defense. Now, can he escape the pressure that would end with a sack against all other human NFL quarterbacks and run 70 yards for a touchdown? Yes.
Ravens — Mark Andrews is a must-start of course — probably Rashod Batemen also, although he’s been very boom or bust to this point. As mentioned above, Cincinnati’s pass rush might be limiting to Batemen since he seems to be the deep threat with little volume. Devin Duvernay has been a touchdown machine so far, so he looks like a decent possibility. J.K. Dobbins will probably not have a big game considering the Bengals quality rush defense.
Bengals — This may not be a popular opinion, but I don’t think Joe Mixon looks good running the ball. The opportunity is definitely there as he’s getting massive amounts of work, but it looked to me like he should have gotten more yardage last week on several of his runs…and that’s taking into consideration the Bengals’ offensive line not being good so far.
If you have room on your bench, Samaje Perine could be a very productive fantasy player if Mixon were to get hurt. He could be similar to Tony Pollard where the backup is better than the starter and would take off if given the opportunity. Baltimore’s passing defense has been poor to put it nicely so all passing and receiving options should be very good plays.
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
I think this game is going to be closer than what Vegas says. The implied total here is 30 to 16 Buffalo. 30 for Buffalo seems totally possible with Buffalo’s killer offense and no TJ Watt, but the 16 for Pittsburgh seems pretty low when considering how Kenny Pickett looked last week when he took over for seemingly inaccurate, visionless, confused, and risk-averse Mitchell Trubisky after halftime.
The good news was Pickett was 10 of 13 for 120 yards in a half of football. The bad news was all 3 incompletions were intercepted by the Jets. However, if you look a little closer, one of the interceptions was a Hail Mary at the end of the game — can’t hold that against him. The other 2 interceptions clanged off the Pittsburgh receiver’s hands. So, in fact, other than the Hail Mary, every one of his passes was on the money. What’s the old rule? If the ball hits you in the hands, you’re supposed to catch it? My dad taught me that in about 1978, and I’m pretty sure it’s still true.
If you watch the highlights, Pickett also made a few impressive, accurate throws as he was getting whacked by a Jet defender — this might not be a good sign for the Steelers’ O-line if the Jets are getting to the QB. However, dive into PFF grades for Pittsburgh O-line and they are better than you might think — much better than last year. Currently, three Steeler Offensive linemen grade in the 60s, and two of them, James Daniels and Chuwuma Okorafor, grade in the 70s for 2022 — center Mason Cole is not far off at 68. This is not a spectacular offensive line but it’s not bad — middle of the roadish. Pickett also scored twice on the ground and looked pretty darn tough doing it, fighting through contact. He also looked fast taking off running a couple of times.
Pittsburgh also has plenty of quality weapons for Pickett with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Frieirmuth, Chase Claypool, and Najee Harris. Do you remember a few years ago when Justin Herbert unexpectedly put up big fantasy numbers as a rookie? I do. Pittsburgh has a tough schedule over the next 5 or so weeks, including this week vs Buffalo, but I would consider adding Pickett if you need QB help. The Steelers’ schedule also eases up significantly during the last 6 weeks of the season, including fantasy playoff weeks. I also see the above skill guys around Pickett ascending if he can continue throwing accurately and moving the ball…super talented George Pickens already started last week so add him if available.
Seattle at New Orleans
Pick up Geno Smith and start all of you Seahawks this week, right? Uh, no. But they just exploded for 48 or something points? Last week was the Lions, and the knee biting isn’t going so well on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions are dead last in scoring defense giving up 35 points per game (2nd worst defense coincidentally is Seattle who is surrendering 29 points per game).
This week is the Saints and they are going to be desperate sitting at 1 and 3 after last week’s heartbreaker vs the Vikings. The Saints have no choice but to win otherwise their season looks full-on disastrous. I would expect the Saints to be very focused and put up some points in spite of their poor offensive line play. The Saints also still have plus defenders in Cam Jordan, Marcus Davenport, Demario Davis, and Marshon Lattimore to slow down Geno and the gang.
Houston at Jacksonville
If you need help with the DST position, Jacksonville appears to be a possible quality add that might be available. I don’t think anyone predicted a productive Jacksonville defense at the start of the year, but that is exactly what it is. They shut out Indianapolis (the Colts might be terrible) and held the Chargers to 10 points. The Chargers are darn good offensively if you didn’t know so this result was very surprising. And even if the Colts are in fact terrible, it is very difficult to shut out anyone in the NFL. Even Nathaniel Hackett. If Jimbo Fisher were an NFL offensive coordinator, instead of a grossly overpaid, underachieving college head coach, it would be very difficult to shut him out.
Yes, they gave up 29 to Philadelphia last week, but Philadelphia looks to be the best team in the NFL and Trevor Lawrence turned it over 5 times, and 5 turnovers against the Eagles could easily turn into 35-40 points allowed. It appears that #1 overall pick Travon Walker, the other 1st round pick LB Devin Lloyd, pass rusher Josh Allen, LB Foyesade Oluokun, and most of the secondary are plus players. The Jaguars are currently #5 in points allowed per game at 16.8 points and the #5 defense in fantasy football currently — that’s pretty good for waiver wire fodder.
