Week 6 NFL Picks: Please keep in mind that by the time you’re reading this, the line may have shifted depending on breaking news during the week, or money flowing through the market. Good luck in Week 6!

Thursday 8:20 PM EST

Philadelphia at NY Giants, +3.5

Both Philadelphia and New York are coming off of close, 2-point losses in Week 5. The Eagles took another devastating blow on the injury front as running back Jay Ajayi has torn his ACL and was placed on injured reserve. On the Giants’ side of the ball, they did manage to keep their matchup against the Panthers close, but frustrations from star players, namely Odell Beckham Jr., have begun to stir controversy from inside the locker room. It’s never a good look for a star wide receiver to be throwing shade at his franchise, albeit aging, quarterback. This said, I think this Giants are in a good spot to bounce back and with the Eagles 0-4 against the spread when favored this season and their offensive line continuing to struggle, I am leaning Giants as home underdogs on Thursday night.

Pick: Giants.

[Also See: Week 6 Waiver Wire Pickups | Week 6 Fantasy Football Sleepers]

Sunday 1:00 PM EST

LA Chargers at Cleveland, +1.5

Cleveland broke their 1,029 day streak without a Sunday win in Week 5 in a huge divisional game against Baltimore. They’ll face another difficult challenge against the Chargers, who will also be emotionally charged in wake of the passing of their owner, Alex Spanos. Normally, I like this Chargers team, and this line implies that if this game were played on a neutral field, LA would only be favored by 4.5, but traveling across the country to play a 1:00 PM game puts them at a serious disadvantage. The Browns are 3-0 against the spread at home this year, so I am leaning Browns as home underdogs.

Pick: Browns.

Buffalo at Houston, -7.5

The Bills picked up a surprise victory against the Titans in Week 5, but have only scored 63 points on the season. The Texans, on the other hand, won in overtime against the Cowboys on Sunday in primetime in spite of their red zone inefficiency. Quarterback Deshaun Watson took a lot of hits in that game, and I worry about his ongoing health. I think the Texans aren’t as bad as they seemed at the beginning of the year, but they don’t deserve to be favored by over a touchdown, even against the Bills. I’m taking the Bills with the 7.5 points.

Pick: Bills.

Carolina at Washington, -1.5

It’s hard not to overreact to Washington’s Monday night embarrassing 43-19 loss to the Saints. In due fairness, the Superdome is a tough place to play, but quarterback Alex Smith showed little to be optimistic about, completing only 59 percent of his passes for zero touchdowns and 1 interception against a very permeable Saints defense and off a bye. He’ll face a better defensive attack from the Panthers, who have added safety Eric Reid, and an offense that will hopefully have tight end Greg Olsen back. I am taking the Panthers to cover the spread and steal a win on the road.

Pick: Panthers.

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Chicago at Miami, +3.5

The Bears are coming off of a bye in first place in the NFC East to face the Dolphins, who have lost two-straight road games. This could be a “get right” game for Adam Gase and Ryan Tannehill if you thought they were really the 3-0 team they began the season as, but I think what we’re seeing is a regression to where we thought they’d be at the beginning of the season. While I don’t think Mitch Trubisky has it in him to throw another six touchdowns, especially against Miami’s secondary, I do think the Bears win this game and cover the 3.5 point spread.

Pick: Bears.

Seattle at Oakland, +3.5

The Seahawks and Raiders will travel across the pond to play this matchup in the first of three London NFL games slated for this season. Thankfully for west coast fans, this game will be played at 1PM EST instead of 10AM EST as others have been, but book makers have put Seattle as only field goal favorites. Seattle managed to hold their divisional game against the Rams close in a 33-31 loss, and they’ll face a much easier opponent in Jon Gruden and the Raiders. Give me the Seahawks to win and cover the 3.5 point spread in Tottenham.

Pick: Seahawks.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, -2.5

I underestimated the Bengals last week given all their injuries, but they cruised over the Dolphins in an impressive 27-17 win and come into Week 6 in sole possession of first place in the AFC North. They’ll face longtime divisional rivals, the Steelers, this week, who may be the scariest 2-2-1 team. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will still be without contract holdout Le’Veon Bell until at least the bye week, but will have no shortage of weapons in Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Connor and Vance McDonald. Be prepared to hear a lot of whistle-blowing during this game: the last time these teams met, there were 20 penalties for 239 yards. All this said, and with the Steelers’ continued off-field drama, I will roll with the hot hand in the Bengals to win and cover the 2.5 point spread.

Pick: Bengals.

[Also See: Week 5 Fantasy Football Recap | Top Week 5 Moments]

Indianapolis at NY Jets, -2.5

The Jets pulled off an impressive 34-16 victory against the Broncos this weekend and will face the Colts for their second straight home game. The Colts, meanwhile, lost 38-24 to the Patriots last Thursday, but will have extra days of rest to prepare for this game and hopefully some of their skill position players back. Generally, you love to see games where one team’s coming off of a win and the other, a loss, which makes me lean Colts with the points in this spot, but keep a close eye on the injury report as the week progresses.

Pick: Colts.

Arizona at Minnesota, -10.5

Rookie quarterback Josh Rosen and the Cardinals managed to pick up their first win of the season on the road against the 49ers and will head into Minnesota as 10.5 point underdogs. The Vikings are also coming off of a big road win to the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles to face a much easier opponent. Watch the injury report throughout the week for Dalvin Cook, but my initial lean is with the Cardinals to lose and keep it closer than you’d think.

Pick: Cardinals

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, -3.5

The Fitzmagic is officially over and Jameis Winston has been named the starter for this Week 6 matchup against the Falcons. I’m not sure what we can expect from Winston in his first start since returning from suspension, and he will probably need some time to settle in, but he faces a very favorable matchup against a banged up Atlanta defense that’s allowed the most points this season to opposing teams. Atlanta will hopefully increase Devonta Freeman’s workload this week as he continues to recover from a knee injury. With so many variables at play in what is shaping up to be a shootout (57.5 O/U), I am going with Matt Ryan and the Falcons to win and cover the 3.5 point spread.

Pick: Falcons

Sunday 4:05 PM EST

LA Rams at Denver, +7.5

The Broncos come into this game having lost three straight games against Sean McVay’s 5-0 Rams. The Rams did, however, have to come back from a touchdown deficit to win last week and showed vulnerability on defense. McVay is hopeful that receivers Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp, who both left Sunday’s game in the first half, can clear the concussion protocol in time for this game in Denver. They’ll face a team who has proven to put up a fight and who has one of the better home field advantages in the league. Barring all injuries, I may rethink this, but give me the Broncos as home underdogs with the 7.5 points.

Pick: Broncos.

Sunday 4:25 PM EST

Baltimore at Tennessee, +2.5

This is another game where it’s hard not to overreact to Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ embarrassing 12-9 overtime loss to the Browns this past Sunday in which he completed fewer than 52 percent of his passes for no touchdowns and 1 interception. The Titans also find themselves reeling from a bad 13-12 loss to the Bills on Sunday where quarterback Marcus Mariota looked ineffective at best. Both quarterbacks will play better rest of season, but at only 2.5, I’m leaning Ravens to win and cover the spread.  Pick: Ravens.

Jacksonville at Dallas, +3.5

Jaguars’ quarterback Blake Bortles had a less than stellar day on Sunday against the Chiefs, throwing 4 interceptions on 60+ attempts. He’ll be on the road again against a Cowboys defense which has over-performed expectations. Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off of an overtime loss to Houston, due in part to a questionable 4th and 1(ish?) decision by coach Jason Garrett.

This will be a low-scoring game, with books setting the O/U at only 40.5. Without knowing which Bortles will show up on Sunday, I am going with the Cowboys at home with the points.

Pick: Cowboys.

Sunday 8:20 PM EST

Kansas City at New England, -3.5

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lived up to expectations and then some against the Jaguars in Week 5, but go on the road this week to face the Patriots. Many will remember these two teams’ Week 1 meeting last season where the Chiefs began their 5-0 start by coming into Gillette and devastating the Patriots 42-27. They’ve begun this season 5-0 as well, and while I think this is an improved team from last year, I think the Patriots have much improved from the beginning of the season with the addition of Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman to Tom Brady’s wide receiving corps. I would like this game more at under a field goal, and as much as it pains me to bet against a team that’s 5-0 straight up and against the spread, give me the Patriots to win and cover this game in Foxboro.

Pick: Patriots.

Monday 8:15 PM EST

San Francisco at Green Bay, -9.5

Green Bay is coming off of a heart-wrenching 31-23 divisional loss to the Lions in which Aaron Rodgers was without most of his receiving corps and their kicker, Mason Crosby, missed four field goals and an extra point. Meanwhile, the 49ers and Blaine Gabbert had a tepid showing on Sunday in their 28-18 loss to the Cardinals. Running back Matt Breida did not suffer a high ankle sprain as initially feared, per coach Kyle Shanahan, but the team did work out multiple replacement backs on Monday to add roster depth as his availability is up in the air moving forward. Keep an eye on this injury report, too, with so many concerns on both sides of the ball. Hopefully for the Packers, Crosby can snap this bad streak, but it’s 49ers or nothing for me in this spot.

Pick: 49ers.