We had a personal bye week for Week 6, but ready to jump back on the horse for Week 7! We have six teams on bye this week, so we are very limited on picks we can make, but that’s why it’s nice to get 6/7 points with a teaser! I have one teaser for those who want to back an underdog with a favorite and one teaser for those who want to be favorites but at the right price. Enjoy the teasers below!
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Also, we are back with over/unders this week, plus a bonus teaser, including a Sunday Night Football over. We are taking an over in a really good game that should be back and forth, along with a game with horrendous defense. For unders, we are taking one of our favorite under teams this season (they are named after a color) and a game with two backup QBs that could get ugly.
Hopefully, we will be able to keep the good times rolling and pick some more winners this week; let’s get to it.
6-point Teaser of the Week:
Chargers (+11.5) at Chiefs – While it seems like the Chargers always lose to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, all their games have come down to the wire. Since 2020 4 out of 5 of these games have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the one game that was decided by more the Chargers won. This year the Chiefs have been winning with more defense and a smart, less explosive offense, but usually not blowing any teams out.
The only two Chiefs wins this year of double digits or more were against the Bears (the odds on favorite to get the #1 pick this year) and last week against the Broncos (a team that should have lost to the Bears) in a game that the Broncos had some offensive chances but couldn’t capitalize. I believe the Charges will make a mistake late or make a boneheaded coaching decision to cost themselves this game but with over 11 points to play with, hopefully, this won’t be one we’ll need to sweat.
Bills (-1.5) at Patriots – The Bills have recently made up for being tortured by the Patriots during the Brady years. Since 2020 the Bills are 6-1 against the Patriots with an average score of 30.14 vs. 13.57. As you can tell, most of these games have not been close, and this “rivalry” has turned into more of a domination. The only win the Patriots have in the last 3 seasons against the Bills was the worst weather game of last year, with winds so bad that Mac Jones only threw 3 passes, and the Patriots still won! Unfortunately for Bill and the Patriots, the weather looks a little windy but fine this weekend; take the Bills in a get-right spot.
7-point Teaser of the Week:
Seahawks (-1.5) vs Cardinals – The Seahawks will be looking to bounce back this week after a tight loss to the Bengals, and welcoming the Cardinals to Seattle will be a nice way to do that. While Geno Smith hasn’t been as good as last year, this Arizona Cardinals defense looks like the perfect one to get back on track against (just ask Joe Burrow).
Even if Geno continues to struggle, Ken Walker has looked every bit as good as good as last year. Expect the Seahawks to get up early and lean on their run game against a very poor Arizona run defense. Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals’ offense seems to be regressing back to where we thought they’d be to start the season. Take a Seahawks team on the upswing against a Cardinals team that might start focusing on draft preparation soon.
49ers (ML) at Vikings – While this game will mostly be watching the injury report pregame, I can’t pass up taking the 49ers ML coming off a loss. It appears CMC will try to give it a go, but even if he can’t play, the combo of Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason should still be able to do enough on the ground to open things for Brock Purdy, who will be looking to bounce back after his worst game as a starter. While the 49ers’ stock is down after their first loss of the season, I don’t think the Vikings should get much credit last week for beating a bad Bears team that ended up playing their backup QB. I don’t see the Vikings being able to run on the 49ers, which leaves Primetime Kirk Cousins to throw against this stout 49ers D, I’ll be taking the over on Cousins’ 0.5 interceptions prop. I don’t see the 49ers losing two in a row but make sure to keep up on the injury news, which may shift the line more.
Bonus Primetime Overs of the Week Teaser (7 points):
Dolphins at Eagles over 44.5/Chargers at Chiefs over 41 – We have had some bad primetime games lately, so I am trying to use my Irish luck to sprinkle an over-teaser on the two best national games of the week. While you do have to pay up for a 7-point teaser, it is nice getting the key over numbers of 45 and 41 to help boost these over bets. Let’s hope these are actually the primetime games they are built up to be and have some fun scoring for us.
Overs of the week:
Lions at Ravens (Over 43) – This is a great matchup of two well-coached teams and the winner should be set up very well to win their division and conference. Since this is such a big game, I think both coaches will pull out all the stops, leading to some big plays and scores. Both defenses thrive on stopping the run, which should force both offenses to pass more, hopefully leading to more touchdowns and points.
Jared Goff will need to be relied on more with David Montgomery sidelined, but getting Gibbs back will help his passing attack out of the backfield. Lamar and the Ravens also have some running back issues with JK Dobbins on IR, but I think this is finally the week we see the Ravens passing attack click under their new offensive coordinator. I see this being an amazing slugfest of a game where both coaches will want to get 7 over 3 points when they get in the red zone, a 24-21 type game is perfect for us to sit back and enjoy.
Packers at Broncos (Over 45) – I’m not sure how good either of these offenses are but I’m pretty sure they are both better than the opposing defenses. Both teams have also had long layoffs (the Packers coming off a bye and the Broncos played last Thursday), which should give both offenses some time to fix some issues while also drawing up some fresh plays and ideas. While Denver getting healthier on defense does give me a little pause at taking this number but that might be offset by the Packers offense getting healthier (specifically Aaron Jones returning, so check on those updates pregame). In another week with not a lot of appealing overs to pick well take our shot on two struggling defenses in the altitude of Denver.
Unders of the week:
Browns at Colts (Under 41) – The Browns seem like the perfect under team this year, with an elite defense and an offense that wants to run the ball at a high rate to control time of possession. The Browns’ defense leads the NFL in yards allowed per play, success rate, and EPA per play. They are shutting teams down to the tune of only allowing 200.4 yards, which is a mind-blowing 60.4 years less than the 2nd lowest team. The one Browns game this year that went over this number needed two Pittsburg Steelers defensive touchdowns, something that is obviously not easily repeated. Now they get a Colts team with a backup QB who has been turnover-prone in the past. Minshew had 4 turnovers last week against the Jaguars, showing why he is a hit-or-miss backup, the Browns have not gotten a lot of turnovers yet this year, but I think we see some regression in this area this week with mustache Minshew trying to do too much. Both teams will lean on their run games which will keep the clocks moving, which is the best friend of under betters. The Browns so far are 3-1-1 on unders this year and I think they add another one this week.
Raiders at Bears (Under 38) – This will be a battle of backup QBs as Justin Fields and Jimmy Garoppolo are both out of this game with injuries. Even with both QBs healthy, there would be a good chance I liked the under; now, with both officially out, I love it. The Raiders have not scored more than 21 this whole season and they only got to 21 last week because Mac Jones gave up a boneheaded safety late in the game.
So, with the Raiders looking to win games ugly, they have to be excited to see Tyson Bagent starting against them for the Bears, a rookie out of Division 2 Shepherd. He looked like a rookie last week coming into the game and forcing a tough deep pass to DJ Moore, which turned into the interception to seal the game for the Vikings. As if it’s not hard enough getting your first start as a rookie in the NFL, Tyson will already have to avoid Maxx Crosby, who has always been underrated but is having a defensive player of the year type of season. Darnell Wright is having a solid rookie year for the Bears at right tackle but asking anyone to block Crosby right now is a big ask, much less for a rookie who specializes in run blocking over pass blocking. Take Crosby’s over-sacks total and watch (or check updates on your phone as this will be a tough game to watch) this under-hit.
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