“There is strength in numbers, but organizing those numbers is one of the great challenges.” – John C. Mather.
Implied totals. Understanding the values of what you are looking at. When looking at the over/under of a game, that gives you a number Vegas is predicting. The house never loses, or they wouldn’t do it. The key to success is recognizing the weight.
Go to https://www.fantasylabs.com click on the NFL tab, then Vegas on the drop-down. Below is the screen you will see. Under score, click ‘Live’ in the center column. This will organize the projected points teams are expected to score from highest to lowest. Use this to focus on games where a team is predicted to trounce their opponent, or two teams are expected to battle it out evenly.
Last Week’s DraftKings Picks:
1) Sam Ehlinger QB, IND $4,000 – This was a terrible outcome but not a foul play. The price was too cheap not to try it. Unfortunately, he only brought in 8.54 fantasy points and delivered a dud.
2) Tony Pollard RB, DAL $6,100 – I said smash this play, and 51% of players did. Pollard pulled in a whopping 36.70 fantasy points.
3) Jaylen Waddle WR, MIA $6,700 – Waddle was at 23.4% ownership and hauled in 33.60 fantasy points. Hill only had 0.09 fantasy points more, but his cost was $8,500. The millionaire maker winner had both stacked with Tua and the next guy on my list.
4) D.J. Moore WR, CAR $5,300 – Two weeks in a row, I called on Moore, and 27.6% of us have been bestowed 30.50 fantasy points. Moore is a player that if he is under $6,000, you can call on his number strictly on his high volume usage.
5) T.J. Hockenson TE, DET $4,900 – T.J. didn’t deliver the value I was looking for. 11 fantasy points at TE isn’t terrible, but with his price, it was not a great selection. Hockemania has been traded to a Vikings team. I am incredibly excited to see how he will be used going forward.
6) Rams DST, LAR $2,700 – 2 fantasy points. Sigh. I was not expecting RUN CMC to take over this game single-handedly. But, unfortunately, this defense is a shell of its former Super Bowl self.
Week 9 DraftKings picks
1) Geno Smith QB, SEA $5,800 –
The most accurate QB in the NFL right now, tied for 5th in passing TDs, and 8th in rushing yards for QBs. The Cardinals are the 7th worst team in the NFL against QBs allowing an average of 21.66 fantasy points. Arizona is finding ways to score but not win the game. Geno is 6th in deep ball passes as well, with 33 attempts. The price and matchup are right. Lock him in for cash and tournament games.
2) Cordarrelle Patterson RB, ATL $5,800 –
We love Cordarrelle Patterson. Did you know he is the only player in NFL history to return a kickoff for 109 yards? This week, he was on the IR, and his price reflected that. QB Marcus Mariota has been finding his way into the top 10 against his counterparts. The Chargers are the 2nd worst team against the run and are missing their top two WRs. Ekeler will be heavily owned, and I suggest you buy some shares for him. Patterson is an excellent play away from the masses at RB this weekend to help find value in the WRs.
3) Justin Jefferson WR, MIN $8,600 –
I have Jefferson as my highest-scoring and highest-value WR for the week. Sometimes looking at the top of the food chain is difficult to decipher. Even with his bye week out of the way, Jefferson is 4th in receptions. He is also 6th in target share % but has only two TDs on the season. There is some TD regression, and Cousins is coming back to Washington. Revenge games are a little narrative in the grand scheme of the NFL, but the Commanders are in the bottom ten against WRs. Kirk Cousins is wearing some serious neck chains and joking around with teammates while sitting at 6-1. Chemistry is critical, and they are bonding.
4) Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, CAR $3,900 –
This is an excellent flex play at a bargain discount. The Panthers are backed into a corner, and playmakers are limited. Last week Carolina let QB Walker throw 36 attempts, and nine of them went to Marshall. RB Hubbard is out again, and Foreman is not built for the pass-catching life. Marshall looked strong, and this team will have to throw against a Bengals team looking to run up the score.
5) Robert Tonyan TE, GB $3,800 –
Tonyan is 6th in receptions for TEs, and the Lions are the 6th worst team against TEs. Throw in Pickard’s ‘Pick-Six,’ and we’ve got 666. Actually, nothing is scarier than how inefficient the Lions’ defense has been. Aaron Rodgers is priced at a low $5,900, and Doubs and Jones will be the highest owned in the stacks. This week, I like Lazard and Tonyan more based on their value and connection with Rodgers.
6) Buccaneers DST, TB $3,000 –
The Rams have the worst offensive team in the league with the least amount of points scored. In addition, Matt Stafford has more interceptions than touchdowns. They don’t know who their starting RB is; Cam Akers might play, their offensive line is in shambles, and they are on the road. They also knocked Tampa Bay out of the playoffs and their chances for a back-to-back Super Bowl appearance. Ship it.