NFL futures bets: 3 division winners for the 2023-2024 season 

My favorite NFL stat ever? Around 40-50% of NFL teams that make the playoffs in a season, miss them the following season. Out of all sports leagues, the NFL creates tremendous parody and new teams rise and fall when we least expect it. Last year, the Chargers, Dolphins, and Jaguars were new arrivals to the 2023 AFC playoffs while the Eagles, Giants, Vikings, and Seahawks were newcomers in the NFC. Controversially, the Titans, Raiders, Patriots, and Cardinals all fell out.

In this article, we will examine three teams that are solid bets to win their division based on their current betting value. 

Team 1: Atlanta Falcons 

Last Season’s Record: 7-10 

Vegas Win Total for 2023: 8.5 (-122) 

The Bet: The Atlanta Falcons to Win the NFC South +215 (Draftkings)

Rationale: The Atlanta Falcons are heading into their third year under head coach Arthur Smith. They finished last in the division at 7-10, but the Panthers and Saints also finished at 7-10 in the NFC South. With Tom Brady gone, the division is WIDE OPEN and Atlanta is developing a strong identity on offense. Atlanta does not have a quarterback in Desmond Ridder that will make you feel confident, but I still believe they have a strong chance to win the NFC South. 

1. Smashmouth football

The Atlanta Falcons know what they are good at and that is running the football. Last year, the Falcons ran the ball 559 times (1st in NFL) and averaged 4.9 yards per carry in the process (4th in NFL). Arthur Smith took the Falcons’ job wanting to build a rushing juggernaut and is well on his way.

The Atlanta Falcons finished 5th in offensive line rankings last year according to PFF, and added rookie guard Matthew Bergeron in the second round of the NFL draft to bolster the offensive line. However, their biggest off-season addition was rookie running back Bijan Robinson. He can give them just enough big plays to help them win this division. While the rest of the NFL is getting faster and throwing the ball more, Atlanta has doubled down in the trenches and on their physical ground-and-pound style.

This team will be strong, and physical, and no team in the NFL will look forward to playing them. If you believe football games are won in the trenches, you should be all in on the Atlanta Falcons. 

2. Wide open NFC South 

One of the reasons I like betting on the Falcons is that I do not think Desmond Ridder has to dominate to win this division. The Buccaneers won the division last year at 8-9 with Tom Brady. He is gone and Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask is in. The Carolina Panthers are starting a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young.

The Saints do pose the biggest threat, but also could have an Alvin Kamara suspension on the way and Derek Carr will still have to figure himself out in a new setting. The Falcons should be able to control the clock in most of their games with their run game and if Ridder can be any bit of an upgrade over Mariota, the Falcons should win this division.

Team 2: The Green Bay Packers 

Last Season’s Record: 8-9 

Vegas Win Total for 2023: 7.5 (-122) 

The Bet: The Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North +400 (DraftKings) 

Rationale: The Packers had a disappointing season last year finishing 8-9 and missing the playoffs. It was the first time that they did not win the NFC North since 2018. More importantly, this is the first time the Packers won’t be led by Aaron Rodgers for the first time in 15 seasons, as he moves to the meadowlands to join the New York Jets.

Everyone is off the Packers now because of the Rodgers departure and while the Packers will miss his talent, they will not miss the drama he brought to the team. The Packers still have a lot going for them despite the departure of their Hall of Fame quarterback and +400 seems like fantastic value for the 2023 season. 

1. The Packers without Rodgers. 

The Lions are the favorites to win the NFC North (+145) and have built a solid team. They’re everyone’s offseason darlings at the moment, but they are still the Lions. Rodgers left but the Packers still have a lot of good in place. Starting with their head coach, Matt LaFleur has a record of 47-19 (71% winning percentage) which ranks 3rd since he took over in 2019. Yes, he had Rodgers, but even with great quarterback play, you don’t go 47-19 without being a good NFL Coach.

The Packers have the talent on defense with eight first-rounders making it up when healthy. The Packers had injuries to key defensive players with Rashan Gary tearing his ACL and Erik Stokes to an ankle injury. With those two back, and Jaire Alexander leading the way, the Packers should have the best defense in the division to help them take back the NFC North. 

2. Low pressure and added motivation 

At +400 the Packers have their worst odds to win the NFC North since 2006. Everyone has counted the Packers out and the pressure is now on the Lions/Vikings to win this division. For the first time in Matt LaFleur’s time in Green Bay, they are not favored to win the NFC North. There is low pressure on Jordan Love after they already missed the playoffs last year.

The rest of the Packers team should play with a chip on their shoulder after hearing how they’re done with the departure of Rodgers. The Packers O-line ranks 8th by PFF going into this year, they still have one of the best running back rooms with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon and a young but promising wide receiver room with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Every Packer player is hearing how they are nothing without Rodgers and will have the combination of a chip on their shoulder packaged with very little pressure to win the division for the first time in 5 years.

Team 3: The Baltimore Ravens 

Last Season’s Record: 10-7 

Vegas Win Total for 2023: 10.5 (-102) 

The Bet: The Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North (+220) 

Rationale: The Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl contender for the 2023 season. They have the quarterback in Lamar Jackson, they have the defense, they have the offensive line, they have the coach, and they now may finally have the weapons surrounding Jackson to win the whole thing.

I have even taken the Ravens at +1800 to win the Superbowl. The AFC North might be the best division in football, but I am still confident the Ravens can win this division. 

1. A healthy and happy Jackson. 

Jackson missed 5 games of the 2022 NFL season and the Ravens still went 10-7. Despite Jackson missing multiple games the past two seasons, the Ravens rewarded him with a 5 year 260 million dollar contract. They also hired a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken, after Greg Roman resigned. There had been rumored player frustration (some from Jackson) to have him replaced and the Ravens did so. He comes into 2023 fully healthy and happy staying in Baltimore. He will be fully locked into winning with no distractions looming.

In his career, Jackson is 49-21 in 70 games played (70% win percentage), which at his percentage, would put the Ravens at 11.9 wins this season. If you want to argue about his performance in the postseason, fine, but Jackson is a great regular-season quarterback and if he stays healthy should be able to win the AFC North. 

2. New weapons 

Those that defend Jackson’s ability as a passer always point to the lack of weapons he has had. For all of his career, his best passing threat has been a TE in Mark Andrews which will continue this year. However, the Ravens drafted wide receiver Zay Flowers and added Odell Beckham Jr. Rashod Bateman is still on the team but has started camp on the PUP list with a foot injury from last season. Still, this is already the best cast of weapons, and if Bateman is back, watch out.

J.K. Dobbins is one of the most efficient backs in the league when healthy which should keep their running game incredibly efficient. While I understand not wanting to bet against the Ravens because of their history of health concerns, if they were to stay healthy, they should win this division. 

**Bonus Super Bowl Picks** 

Baltimore Ravens to win the Superbowl +1800– For all the reasons listed above. If Baltimore can stay healthy, they have everything in place to win a Superbowl even in the tough AFC. 

Kansas City Chiefs to win the Superbowl +600– The Superbowl favorites going into 2023 and they should be. With the best quarterback in the NFL and the best head coach in the NFL, the Chiefs will definitely be in the mix when January rolls around. 

San Francisco 49ers to win the Superbowl +1000– The NFC is wide open this year and the 49ers might have the best roster in football. Kyle Shannahan is a genius offensive head coach and they still have the former DPOY in Nick Bosa. The Eagles of course are the favorites but a small Superbowl hangover could have the NFC Championship being played in San Francisco rather than Philadelphia, which could be the difference. 

These are all bets that I have made for the 2023 season. If I am giving out picks to all of you, you can be sure that I am taking them myself. The NFL is always going through changes and hopefully, these teams could rise to the occasion in 2023!