We finally had the week we’ve been waiting for, going 4-4 on teaser picks! We also went 3-1 on over/under picks, making this a very profitable week. We’ll look to continue the hot streak this week, unfortunately, with lots of teams on bye, making picks harder than usual.
Other than not getting the over for Bengals/Bills we were able to hit all our picks from last week (not counting the bonus teaser). A late Dalton Kincaid fumble sealed our fate, as the Bills just couldn’t muster enough points to get us over the total. Overs have been tricky all year, but a couple of matchups stick out this week; hopefully, they pull through.
We’ll try to improve this week and go for the ever-elusive perfect week; good luck!
6-point Teaser of the Week:
Ravens (ML) vs Browns – The Ravens got it done in a big way for us last week and were going to keep riding them with a tough home matchup against the Browns. While this should be a tight divisional battle, the main thing that makes the Ravens a great play this week is Lamar’s records against the Browns. Since 2020, the Ravens are 5-1 straight up against the Browns, with the only loss coming in a game where Lamar got hurt and Tyler Huntley had to play. With the teaser, we only need the Ravens to win, and Lamar knows exactly how to do that against the Browns: take the home team in a close one.
Seahawks (-0.5) vs Commanders – We faded a Seahawks team last week that we thought was overrated, going against what looks to be the best team in the NFL right now in the Ravens. This week, we change our tune on the Seahawks as they get the perfect get-right spot at home against the Commanders. Washington is a team that might be feeling too good coming off a win over a terrible Patriots team and will be tired having to travel to the West Coast. As I said last week, it usually takes more than a week to show the effects from the trade deadline, and I think we see that big time with these two teams. I don’t see the Commanders being able to get any sort of pass rush against Geno with Sweat/Young gone, which should allow him to carve up their zone defense (Geno crushes zone defenses at a top-10 rate while struggling against man coverage, being rated a bottom 10 QB in that category). On the other side, I expect Leonard Williams to be fully comfy with his new team now and create some havoc, which, with their amazing secondary, should lead to some Sam Howell turnovers and sacks. If you want a good trend as the cherry on top of this bet for Seattle, Pete Carroll, after a loss, is 47-29-4 against the spread.
7-point Teaser of the Week:
Lions (+4) at Chargers – The Chargers looked good on Monday night while dominating an abysmal Jets offense, but they should have a lot more trouble this week with a Lions team looking healthy coming off the bye. The Lions will be getting David Montgomery back, which is huge against a Chargers team that is solid against the run, but with Monty back, the Lions can throw both him and Gibbs at them in the run game, which should be hard to stop. Once the run game gets going, the Lions will be able to take advantage of a Chargers passing defense that has been bottom 5 in the league in most metrics.
The matchup on the other side should be a fun one, as the Lions have a top rushing defense, but will they be able to stop Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ passing attack? I think the defense will be able to slow Herbert down enough (the Jets D held the Chargers to only 20 points last week, and both TDs were set up by terrible Jets offensive turnovers) to at least keep this game within a field goal. Herbert hasn’t looked the same since Mike Williams went down for the year (it also looks like Joshua Palmer will miss this week) and banged up his finger. We’re going to take the away team to bite off some kneecaps and get us the cover.
Bills (-0.5) vs Broncos – The Bills need a bounce back in a big way after losing to the Bengals last week. The Bills are now 5-4 and, on the outside, looking in for the AFC playoff race, enter the Denver Broncos at home. The Bills have their faults, but as a team, they are very good at bouncing back after a loss. Since 2020, they are 12-3 following a loss, so we’ll ignore the spread and just take them to win here. While it is a little worrisome that the Broncos are coming off a bye (giving them extra time to prepare for the Bills), I think there is just too much talent on Buffalo to lose this game.
Also, the Bills have been an amazing home team this year as they still have not lost in Buffalo (technically, they lost a home game to the Jaguars, but it was in London so we’re not counting it), giving us another reason to back Josh Allen and the boys. Take the Bills to right the ship this week in front of arguably the best fans in the NFL and win by at least a field goal.
Bonus Teaser of the Week: Primetime Unders Teaser (6 points):
Jets at Raiders under 42/Broncos at Bills under 53 – We’ve tried to use our bonus teaser to get these past weeks’ primetime games some good mojo by taking the overs in the past, but this week, we’re going with the unders. As Einstein used to say, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results,” so let’s try the George Costanza method and do the opposite of what we’d normally do.
I don’t have to explain why it’s great to take a New York Jets under after last Monday Night, but with the extra 6 points, I also love adding the Bills/Broncos under to this teaser as well. The Bills offense hasn’t looked right since their dominating win over the Dolphins over five weeks ago. They have only mustered more than 20 points twice since then and one of those was when they scored 25 in a loss to the Patriots.
On the other side, the Broncos defense has vastly improved over what some thought might be the worst defense in history to start the year. In the past three weeks, the Broncos have only given up 19, 17, and 9 points, respectively, and two of those great performances were against the best QB in the world, Patrick Mahomes, and the defending champions. Add in the fact that Denver is coming off a bye with an extra week to prepare for Josh Allen, and I think the Broncos can do enough to keep this under the large total. Even if these games turn into snooze fests that are unwatchable, at least we can make some money (and maybe spend Sunday and Monday nights with family instead of watching football, maybe).
Overs of the week:
Lions at Chargers (Over 48.5) – Goff returning to LA to play in a dome? Sign me up! Goff has really been great all year (other than the Ravens game), but his numbers when playing in a dome skyrocket. If he and the Lions are able to light up the scoreboard, then they have the perfect QB in Herbert on the other side to match. I don’t see either of these defenses being able to stop what the opposing offense is trying to do (I know the Chargers’ defense has dominated the past two weeks, but when those games are against the Jets and Bears, it’s hard to get too excited), as the Lions should be able to run all over the Chargers (especially with Monty back) and the Chargers should be able to throw on a beat up Lions secondary. This seems like a back-and-forth game where whoever has it last wins; let’s hope that’s the case and take this large number.
Titans at Buccaneers (Over 39) – While the jury is still out on Will Levis, I think the Tampa pass defense has proven to be poor enough for him to take advantage of this matchup. The Buccaneers just allowed fellow rookie CJ Stroud to pass for almost 500 yards and five touchdowns, showing that even if they can bottle up Derrick Henry, they can still successfully move the ball and score. The Titans’ defense shuts down opposing rushing offenses, which fits right into the Buccaneers gameplan, as they have little to no running game to speak of. This will be a lot of dump-offs to Rashaad White and Baker having to make plays downfield. I think this number is low enough for both of these average passing attacks to take advantage of these poor passing defenses. Let’s hope Levis and Baker can get this done for us, something that is admittedly a scary proposition.
Unders of the week:
Jets at Raiders (Under 37) – If the NFL is going to force us to watch this game Sunday Night, then we are going to make some money on it. Yes, we are doubling down on the under for this game. Zach Wilson in primetime is a recipe for disaster, as seen last Monday, and the Raiders are matching with their own bottom-feeding backup QB. I don’t see the Raiders being able to do much against an amazing Jets pass defense; that should frustrate Davante Adams and company. This game will feature both rushing attacks, which should keep the clock ticking, hopefully getting this game done in record time. We’ll take the under and keep cheering on the clock in this toilet bowl.
Packers at Steelers (Under 39) – Here we have a matchup of two teams coming off solid wins last week, but I think one was more of a mirage than the other. While the Packers did win last week, beating Brett Rypien isn’t going to impress anyone (he was released from the team this week so they could sign Carson Wentz off the bench, yikes!). The Steelers weren’t overly impressive in their Thursday night win, but getting any win on a short week is great, as those games can get pretty funky without much prep/rest time from the Sunday before. Now, having 10 days to prep/rest for the Packers, I love this spot for the Steelers, who get a struggling QB in front of their home crowd.
I like the Steelers to win in this matchup, and part of the reason why is I think this will be a low-scoring tight battle. Neither of these teams’ QBs scares anyone, and as seen with the game above, we are trying to target bad QB matchups for good undervalue. If Kenny Pickett can get the Steelers a lead, then TJ Watt will do the rest; the Packers’ suspect offensive line, combined with Jordan Love’s struggles, should lead to some parties at the QB for the Steelers’ edge rushers. The Steelers offense has slightly improved over the past couple of weeks, but I still trust Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada to help us with this under. Tomlin will be happy kicking field goals for an ugly win.
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