Well, that was about as heartbreaking of a week as we could have had. We hit on two of our teaser picks, but the other two ended in heartbreak. After leading all game, the Ravens decided to choke their game away against the Browns, while the Bills decided they would give the Broncos two chances at the game-winning field goal. All we needed was for the Ravens and Bills to get a victory for us, and sadly, neither could get the job done. On to another week!
In terms of the over/unders we hit at a 50% clip; shocking not getting the under in the Packer game even though they continued their streak of not scoring more than 20 points (Steelers kicked a FG in the fourth to ruin the under for us). We trusted in Will Levis and Baker Mayfield to get us our 2nd over last week, and as we thought that was a scary proposition. We will aim to beat 50% this week!
We’ll try to improve this week and go for the ever-elusive perfect week; good luck!
6-point Teaser of the Week:
Vikings (+8) at Broncos – We are fully on board the Josh Dobbs bandwagon, and we won’t get off until he gives us a reason too. This week he once again finds himself the underdog against an improved Broncos team. I love this spot for the Vikings, though, as the Broncos will be feeling very good about themselves after a huge win against Buffalo on Monday; this could be an obviously overlooked spot for Denver. The Vikings’ offense should continue to improve the more practice time Dobbs gets with the team, and the big bonus this week for the Vikings could be the re-tune of one Justin Jefferson (He’s very good). Even if Dobbs can’t keep his magical run going with a win, I think getting 8 points here is more than enough for us to get a cover.
Texans (ML) vs Cardinals – Speaking of bandwagons to join, hello, CJ Stroud! The rookie has been tearing up the league this year and now gets what is maybe the worst secondary in the league. It appears Nico Collins should be back this week, so CJ should have his full complement of weapons, a scary thought for Arizona. While Kyler looked good in his return from injury last week, I think the Texans defense is better equipped to handle him than the Falcons defense was last week. Also, as an added incentive, the Cardinals have the Texans first-round pick next year, so the Texans will really want to win this one to continue to raise their draft position. Let’s keep riding CJ Stroud until he fails us.
7-point Teaser of the Week:
Lions (-0.5) vs Bears – When you get a chance to take a legit Super Bowl-contending team to just win against the Bears, you take it. From listening to Dan Campbell’s comments on last year’s Bears games, it doesn’t seem like he or the Lions have forgotten about what Justin Fields did to them. I expect a motivated Lions team focused on shutting down Fields and putting up as many points on the Bears as they can. It’s a lot to expect Fields to lead the Bears to a win over this stellar Lions team in his first game off injury, take the Lions to get a win, and continue on the road to the NFC North title.
Cowboys (-3.5) at Panthers – There is usually nothing more bankable than the Cowboys as huge favorites (other than against Arizona earlier this year). This is a brutal matchup for Bryce Young and the lowly Panthers; it’s tough to see how this team can find success offensively against this dominant Cowboys defense. Dak also has the Cowboys’ offense firing on all cylinders, so even if the Panthers can somehow find some success on offense, I don’t see how they can keep up with the machine that is the Cowboys’ offense. While taking a teaser piece over 3 points is scary, I think this spot is too good to pass up for the Cowboys. Hopefully, this is a blowout and a game we won’t have to sweet Sunday.
Bonus Teaser of the Week: Superbowl Rematch Teaser (6 points):
Eagles at Chiefs under 39.5/Eagles (+8.5) at Chiefs – We have a Super Bowl rematch this week for Monday Night Football, and these two might once again be the two best teams in the league. They will both be looking to make a statement with a win, which is why we’ll be taking the over. This seems to be a nice get-right spot for Mahomes to rip up this weak Eagles secondary. On the opposite side, Hurts should be able to counter with his assortment of weapons and the cheat code that is the “tush push.” We’ll also take the points and the Eagles in what should be a close game that goes down to the wire. Anything over 8 points feels very nice between two teams that should be in a one-possession game. Grab this teaser and enjoy what could be the best regular-season game of 2023.
Overs of the week:
Bears at Lions (Over 48) – This is our matchup of the week where neither defense should be able to stop the opposing offenses. The big question is how healthy Justin Fields is (coming off a thumb injury), but by all accounts, he is fully healthy and ready to go. The Lions’ run defense is one of, if not the top, in the league, but they still have a huge weakness against rushing QBs. Last year, in the two games against Detroit, Fields set the record for most rushing yards in a single season from a QB against a single team. So, needless to say, Fields being back is huge for this over. On the other side of the ball, the Bears will have a tough time stopping a Lions offense that is healthy and clicking on all cylinders. The biggest issue for the Bears will be upfront as the top-ranked Lions offense line should dominate a Bears defensive line lacking in talent and depth. I also don’t see any way the Bears are able to contain Aman-Ra St Brown and Sam LaPorta while also stopping the Lions’ dynamic run game, take this admittedly high number to cash.
Steelers at Browns (Over 33) – You want to get nuts? Let’s get nuts! I can’t not take an over of 33 in an NFL game. There is a chance that both defenses can get us the over by themselves (that might be needed actually), but even if not, there should be enough short fields set up by the defenses to get over this number. There are still explosive playmakers on each side of the ball capable of breaking the game open on any play. Call me crazy, but 33 is just too low for me to ignore; I’ll be betting on a defensive TD as well!
Unders of the week:
Jets at Bills (Under 39.5) – I considered putting the Bills in a teaser this week, but my heart couldn’t handle it. Instead, we will take the under in this game, where the Bills offense should struggle with a new offensive coordinator and a top 5 defense in the Jets. That fits right into what Robert Salah wants to do with Zach Wilson as his QB: run the ball and hold the other team to field goals. There is a chance the Bills figure some things out with a new OC and Ken Dorsey out the door, but I don’t see this game breaking 40.
Raiders at Dolphins (Under 46) – Here we have a very scary under, as Miami seems to run the score up on lesser opponents (see hanging 70 on Denver earlier this year), but the matchup seems ripe to go under. The Raiders have based their offense around Josh Jacobs since firing Josh McDaniels, which has been very beneficial for unders keeping the clock running. On the other side, the Dolphins are finally fully healthy on the defensive side of the ball and coming off a bye with extra time to get ready for AOC and company. As long as the Dolphins don’t hang 70 on the Raiders, I feel good about this number going under.
ATTENTION! 5th Down is moving to Substack
After April 1, 2024, 5th Down Fantasy will be operating via Substack. Please subscribe now for free to receive future articles, which will be accessible on Substack and emailed to you directly. If you can spare a few dollars, you can also enjoy the benefits that our existing paid Substack subscribers receive, including our award-winning fantasy football player rankings, weekend playbook email, additional advice and analysis articles, and more. LEARN MORE
Jalen Guyton (groin) expected to be inactive
Week 11 fantasy football rankings
