We returned to our winning ways last week, nailing both teasers and going three for four on over/unders. It felt like we were asking the right questions the previous week, just not getting the right results, so it’s good to see some results after that. We’ll try to keep it up this week, and hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!
7-point teasers of the week
Texans (+8.5) vs. Jaguars – How crazy is it that I want to take the Texans in this game, as I believe they have the best quarterback? While Trevor Lawrence hasn’t taken that next step into stardom, many believed he would this year; his division counterpart looks every bit the franchise quarterback the Texans drafted him to be. The Texans have also played much better at home this year, giving the rookie QB even more comfort this week. Take the Texans here, as even if they do get down, I believe CJ can get us some late points and, at worst, get us the cover. But I also have Texans ML.
Bills (+10.5) at Eagles – We took a week off the Bills last week as we were so heartbroken by the way the Broncos game went. Well, after only a week, we’re back on them! The Bills seem to line up perfectly against this Eagles defense that can shut down the run but is susceptible to the pass (including the deep ball, which Josh has been dying to hit all year). The new additions to the secondary should give them enough juice on defense to give Hurts some problems. The Eagles also rank as one of the luckiest teams in the league, going 4-1 in one-score games. I expect the Bills to keep this close and maybe win, but can’t pass up a number this large.
Overs of the week
Bills at Eagles (Over 48.5) – One of the big matchups of the week should hopefully feature some nice scoring. This seems like a perfect bounce-back spot for the Bills’ offense, as the Eagles’ secondary can be susceptible to big plays. Expect to see more deep balls than usual from Josh and the gang. The Eagles also should be able to take advantage of a beat-up Bills defense that should have trouble containing Hurts in the run-and-pass game. Take the over here and hope the teams can reach the high number.
Buccaneers at Colts (Over 44) – The Buccaneers have a stout run defense that will force the Colts to throw early and often, hopefully scoring TDs and forcing Baker to match. The Colts also run close to the most plays in the league, so this game will have plenty of opportunities for points. The Colts secondary has also been unable to stop anyone lately, which isn’t good when you have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin coming to town. Take the over in what could be a sneaky shootout.
Unders of the week
Chiefs at Raiders (Under 42.5) – It still feels as though bettors expect the old Chiefs to return at some point, even though the 2023 team relies on their defense to win them games. While Mahomes is still the best QB in the world, he is getting no help from his weapons, with Travis Kelce looking older and his WRs unable to catch the ball. With their new defensive-minded head coach, the Raiders are looking to run the ball and control the clock, which is an under better’s dream. Grab this under that seems to be a tad bit too high.
Browns at Broncos (Under 36) – The Browns seem to be a perfect under team with a backup rookie QB playing but also a top 3 defense to shut down the other team. That defense should be able to shut down an improved Russel Wilson, who hasn’t been lighting the world on fire but has been doing enough to get some wins. On the other side the Broncos defense has improved a lot over the beginning of the season and should be able to match up well with a rookie QB. This seems like a hard-nosed defensive battle where the team that makes the least mistakes will win. As long as those mistakes don’t lead to pick six’s and fumble returns for TDs, I feel good about getting under this number.
ATTENTION! 5th Down is moving to Substack
After April 1, 2024, 5th Down Fantasy will be operating via Substack. Please subscribe now for free to receive future articles, which will be accessible on Substack and emailed to you directly. If you can spare a few dollars, you can also enjoy the benefits that our existing paid Substack subscribers receive, including our award-winning fantasy football player rankings, weekend playbook email, additional advice and analysis articles, and more. LEARN MORE
Other Articles
Jerick McKinnon (groin) ruled out for Week 12
Zay Flowers (hip) back at practice Friday, to play Week 12
