I don’t mean to brag.  I’m easily the most humble guy that’s ever lived, but my team is currently crushing the 5th Down Fantasy League.  Can we get those standings in the newsletter?  The abacus had a pretty good week too.  Not Lamar Jackson good, but still pretty good.  Let’s see what’s up for Week 4:

Sunday 9:30 AM EST

Vikings @ Saints (+2.5)

G’Day, Mate!  Time to throw another shrimp on the barbie as the NFL will play its 31st game in London.  The Vikings and Saints have each played three games in the land down under, with both teams winning twice.  Unfortunately for New Orleans, Alvin Kamara looks like he’s on walkabout lately with just 100 yards for the year. 

Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook has done slightly better, but he’s already dingo-ed up with another shoulder injury.  Injured Saints receivers should be good by game day.  New Orleans is technically the home team, but they’ve failed to cover a spread regardless of venue.  Their backs aren’t exactly against the wall-aby, but they surely don’t want to lose three in a row.  After three games, the Saints have the second most penalties in the league with 24 to the Vikings 11.  I just hope it’s a clean game and no one gets dis-koalafied.  

Fantasy Abacus says:  Vikings roll the Saints Lindisfarne style.

Sunday 1:00 PM EST

Seahawks @ Lions (-5)

Detroit had the Vikings by the kneecaps last week only to have K.J. Osborn steal the game in the final minute.  The Lions should have won.  They ran more plays, had more yards, and went 4 for 6 on 4th downs.  But it was a late 4th down on the Vikings’ 36 that did the Lions in.  They’d opt for (and miss) a field goal, allowing Minnesota to win and Detroit fans to reminisce. 

Does anyone realize Geno Smith leads the league with a 77.5% completion percentage?  That’s way better than the 59.4% Seattle’s old QB has these days.  Too bad Seattle can’t bring back their old defense.  In three games, the Legion of Resume has forced teams to punt only 5 times.  This doesn’t bode well against a top 3 offense full of angry Lions.  The Seahawks have owned the Lions recently, but then who hasn’t?  That changes this week.

Fantasy Abacus says:  Lions win.

Attention:  I’ve just been informed that koalas, dingos, and things found “down under” are all found in Australia, not the U.K.  In my defense, the flags are basically the same.  I’m also told that Great Britain once used Australia as a penal colony.  I’m not sure I believe it, but I’m afraid to type it into my search engine.  Please disregard all non-football-related terminology from the first section. 

Browns @ Falcons (+1.5)

I can’t wait to see this game.  Neither team excites me, but with the game in Atlanta, I won’t have to look at that damn elf all day.  Falcons games have been close lately.  They just beat Seattle by 4 after losing by 4 to the Rams.  Cordarelle Patterson continued to impress with a career-high 141 yards, and it seems someone finally showed Mariota where to find the tight end.  Pitts had 87 yards last week but still no touchdowns. 

With the exception of their 29-17 win over the Steelers, Browns games have also been close this year.  Cleveland needs to keep Chubbing along with the NFL’s leading rusher, but a third straight 101-yard game from Amari Cooper wouldn’t hurt either.  Miles Garrett might be too hurt to play after rolling his car like an offensive lineman, but the Browns should have enough to cover.

Fantasy Abacus says: Go Browns.

Bills @ Ravens (+3.5)

The Bills travel to Baltimore after a Miami meltdown that saw Bills OC Ken Dorsey have a meltdown of his own by smashing his laptop in the booth.  Hey Ken, if guys like you and Brady don’t like those free computers, I know some schools that would love them.  Actually, the Bills should be mad.  They beat the Dolphins in every category last week but somehow found a way to lose. 

The Ravens found a win last week, namely five more Lamar Jackson scores.  Baltimore leads the league in points (99) and touchdowns (13) but Buffalo ranks 2nd in total yards (1,324).  The Ravens’ defense has the most turnovers (8) but Buffalo has seven and they’ve given up the fewest yards (642).  The Bills beat the Ravens by 14 last year but Baltimore topped the Bills in three of their last four games. The Ravens won’t exactly put the Bills through a table on Sunday, but they’ll do enough.  Also, if you Bills fans don’t like those folding tables, I know an Elks lodge that would love to have them.

Fantasy abacus says: Go with the Ravens

Commanders @ Cowboys (-3)

The more I listen to Jerry Jones describe Dak Prescott’s recovery, the more I think he’ll be back under center 8 days ago.  I have no idea how that math works, but I can count to 9, as in the 9 sacks given up by Washington last week.  Uh-oh.  Dallas leads the league with 13 sacks so far and you know they’re calling “dibs” in the film room.  At the moment Micah Parsons is .5 sacks off the league lead but the way Wentz holds onto the ball, he’ll have two or three before the national anthem. 

Dallas should have no worries.  Even with last week’s game, Carson and the Commanders have still scored the fourth most points in the NFC.  If they can fix what ailed them last week, expect a close game.  If not, expect a repeat of last year’s 56-14 Dallas victory.  Also, leave Dak alone Jerry.  Cooper is doing fine.

Fantasy abacus says: Cowboys (unfortunately) win.

Chargers @ Texans (+4.5)

I’m not sure if Justin Herbert took a shot before the Chargers’ loss to the Jaguars, but head coach (and former defensive coordinator) Brandon Staley needs to inject a little defense into his game plans (without Joey Bosa).  Only three teams have given up more than the 84 points allowed by the Chargers.  

Luckily, one of those teams is the Houston Texans, who rank dead last in offense, defense, and players you’ve ever heard of.  The Texans haven’t won a game all year, but they’ve beaten the Bolts in their last two meetings as an underdog.  Perhaps L.A. is just what the doctor ordered?  Just make it’s not the same doctor that gave Tyrod Taylor a shot.  He’s sitting behind Daniel Jones now, waiting for his next one.

Fantasy Abacus says: Chargers (and Keenan Allen) get back on track.   

Titans @ Colts (-3.5)

A month ago, Derrick Henry vs. Jonathan Taylor would have been must-see TV.  It was nice to see Henry bounce back with 85 yards and a score against the Raiders, but Jonathan Taylor hasn’t scored since a sensational first week and seems to be going backward.  His rookie teammate, tight end Jelani Woods had an unthinkable third week with two catches for touchdowns.  You may know him better as “Jaelani Who?”, especially if you have another Colt on your fantasy team. 

Tennessee lost its only road game this year, but really had no shot against Buffalo.  The Colts upset the Chiefs last week in their first and only home game.  I’d normally predict a letdown after such a big win, but the Colts’ defense has allowed the third-fewest rush yards per game (77).  The Titans have only 3 passing touchdowns so far and I can’t name a single Titans receiver at the moment.  They should sign Robert Woods, what’s he up to these days?

Fantasy Abacus says: Go Colts.

Bears @ Giants (-3)

“Bear Down”.  It’s not just a slogan, it describes Chicago’s backfield after David Montgomery suffered a knee and ankle injury on the same play.  No word yet if he’ll land on the IR, but you’ll see Justin Fields throw 21 passes before you see Montgomery suit up.  His backup, Khalil Herbert, became the week’s top waiver target after running for 157 yards and 2 scores. 

On the other side, the Giants just lost to the Cowboys and lost Sterling Shepard for the year.  Kenny Golladay is still available to not catch passes, but with only 2 catches all year, I wouldn’t hold my breath.  Who does he think he is, Darnell Mooney?  This could (and should) be the first game without a forward pass since 1932.  Take a deep breath Giants fans, your team should bounce back for their second home win. 

Fantasy Abacus Says:  Giants win.

Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5)

The previous Eagles game was brought to you by the number “3”.  The Birds got their third win in their third game and made sure Carson Wentz’s third team would be his last.  They did this despite converting only a third of their first downs and scoring no points in the third quarter.  The 3² sacks may have been the charm.  The previous (and only) Super Bowl victory in Eagles history was brought to them by Doug Pederson, now the Jaguars coach.  Pederson now has a top 5 offense in every category.  Duval County may build him a statue if he comes home with a 3-1 record.  He already has one in Philly. 

Jacksonville has 60 points in two road games so far, but Philly gave up only 7 points in their only home game.  (Jacksonville shut out the Colts at home).  As long as James Robinson keeps finding the end zone (he’s scored in every game) the Jags will be in it all day.

Fantasy Abacus says:  Welcome home Doug, I’ll take your Jaguars (to cover).

Jets @ Steelers (-3)

Those on the Pickett line must wait a bit longer after Mitch Trubisky’s best game as a Steeler.  They still lost, but Mitch finally had enough yardage to reach the Mendoza line.  If the Steelers can’t reach the first down stripe more often (1-9 against the Browns), the Jets could be trouble. 

The Jets have a problem beating good teams at home, so perhaps a trip to Pittsburgh is just what the doctor ordered.  Zach Wilson’s doctor cleared him to play this week after suffering a torn meniscus during the preseason, but I’d keep those medical records handy just in case.  The Jets have given up 9 sacks so far.  Feeling mobile Zach?  Left tackle George Fant is on the IR and his backup struggled mightily last week.  The Steelers have also struggled without T.J. Watt.  Pittsburgh is 0-6 without Watt in the lineup since being drafted in 2017.  Regardless, expect Wilson to show some rust in his first trip to the Steel City.

Fantasy Abacus says:  Steelers win.

Sunday 4:05 PM EST

Cardinals @ Panthers (-1.5)

It must be hard to throw for 314 yards and not score a touchdown, especially when your top receiver goes off for 140 of those yards.  But Kyler Murray did it last week.  It’s also difficult to win a game when your leading rusher has 39 yards, and the Cardinals certainly couldn’t do it against the Rams last week. 

The Panthers also had a hard time with the Saints on Sunday.  They only had 148 yards through the air, but Christian McCaffrey ran for 108 yards.  You know what else is hard?  Owning Ed McCaffrey’s kid in a fantasy league.  McCaffrey owners (like myself) understand that he’ll get hurt, but we also know he’ll put up otherworldly numbers in between trips to the medical tent.  Now that he’s missing practice with a quad injury, McCaffrey owners want to know where those big numbers are. 

Don’t expect big numbers in this game, but Arizona is too talented not to cover such a small number.  Expect Murray to air it out.  The Panthers aren’t the Rams and James Connor is no Christian McCaffrey; unless you’re talking about injuries, then they’re like the exact same guy.

Fantasy Abacus says:  Take Arizona

Sunday 4:25 PM EST

Patriots @ Packers (-9.5)

Have you ever seen a man in pain like Mac Jones?  I didn’t see the injury, but his reaction was enough to make Joe Theisman blush.  Wait until you see the look on the faces of Patriots fans after a few weeks of Hoyer to Agholor.  Yikes.  Aaron Rodgers may not have an Agholor, but the Pack has a 4th round rookie that’s beginning to prove his doub(s)ters wrong.  Doubs caught all 8 of his targets last week for 73 yards and a score against a good Tampa defense. 

It’s almost crazy to give Bill Belichick this many points, which is exactly why I’m doing it.  Expect New England to play it safe but still give the ball away at Lambeau.  The Patriots often struggle on grass, but Aaron Rodgers, well…

Fantasy Abacus says:  Pick the Pack.

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5)

“Just Win (already) Baby!” This had to be the theme of Coach McDaniel’s closed-door meeting with Raiders owner Mark Davis, right?   Closed-door meetings typically don’t happen this early, and the coach is often shown the door afterward.  I don’t think McDaniels is going anywhere, but neither is his team.   The Raiders haven’t won a game yet but are favored at home against a division rival.  The Raiders have beaten the Broncos four straight games, but haven’t covered all year despite being favored in their last two contests. 

The Broncos lost their last road game against a hyped-up Seahawks team, but there won’t be any venom for Russell Wilson in Sin City.  Cortland Sutton has played well in his last two games but only the Colts have scored fewer points than the Broncos.  The Raiders are top ten in points scored.  All bets are off with another Vegas loss, they’ll do whatever it takes to cash in.

Fantasy Abacus says:  Don’t bet the farm, but the Raiders win.

Sunday 8:20 PM EST

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had to move practices to Miami to avoid Hurricane Ian.  First Gisele kept Tom away from the facilities every Wednesday, now Mother Nature kicks him out altogether.  Man, when is Tom Brady ever going to catch a break?  Hopefully, the Bucs packed their defense.  They’ve given up the fewest points in the NFL and have forced 8 turnovers already. 

Both teams are coming off a loss and last met in Tampa’s 31-9 Superbowl victory.  That’s enough for me to pick the Chiefs.  Their receiver room looks a bit different, but nothing is normal in Tampa these days, and I’ll take Big Red in a revenge game every time.

Fantasy Abacus says: Chiefs win.

Monday 8:15 PM EST

Rams @ 49ers (-2)

My bad.  I thought the Niners’ offense would take a step forward with Garoppolo.  Oddsmakers are giving the Rams 2 points this week, just like Jimmy G. did for Denver when he stepped out of the end zone.  Should a 1-2 team that just lost to Denver really be favored against a Super Bowl champion that just won two straight?  Logic says no, so that means pick the Rams.  But logic never works for me, so should I pick the Niners? 

The Rams beat the 49ers in their last game, so take the Rams?  But San Francisco won the previous four, so take the Niners?  The Rams dropped and fumbled their way out of three scores last week, so definitely go San Fran.  But the odds of that happening again are pretty slim, so maybe the Rams are the pick?  Why is the room spinning?  Call me crazy but the Rams should get enough turnovers for the win and sole possession of the NFC West.

Fantasy Abacus says:  Take the Rams, wait….never mind, take the Rams.  Definitely.

Enjoy Week 4 everyone, and seriously,  I’m so humble, I don’t even brag about my 5 followers @fantasybruce.