Week 5 NFL game picks against the spread 

2023 Record: 6-6 (-.31u) 

Atlanta Falcons ML vs Houston Texans (-130) (DraftKings) 

The Falcons started off the season off 2-0 but have quickly lost two straight and Desmond Ridder has not looked good. The Texans are coming off a big win as an underdog against the Steelers, and CJ Stroud has looked like the real deal (currently the favorite to win OROY). When I get an opportunity to go against a trendy dog I like to jump at the chance. Since the Texans have looked good and the Falcons have not, the Texans are receiving 74% of bets but the line has gone from Atlanta -1.5 to Atlanta -2.

The Falcons struggle passing the football but have a good running game averaging 128 rush yards per game (12th). The Texans have allowed 4.4 yards per carry (9th worst). I’ll play it safe and take the Falcons on the ML even with some juice to it. 

Confidence Rating: 7.5/10 

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Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 vs Baltimore Ravens (-112) (DraftKings) 

The Steelers are coming off a blowout 30-6 loss to the Texans last week which led to Mike Tomlin saying, “Hell yeah, we gotta make some changes.” Over the past 5 games between these teams, the Steelers have won four outright and their one loss was only by two points. This total opened at 41 and has quickly dropped to 38 showing that Vegas sees this as a very low-scoring game where points are a premium.

Mike Tomlin is 25-11-2 ATS as an underdog over the last five seasons and is 41-39 straight up (only winning record as an underdog in NFL). I think Tomlin will have this team ready to go after a blowout loss and I’ll take all the points I can in a matchup that has not gone over 39 for the past 5 matchups. 

Confidence Rating: 8/10 

Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs Indianapolis Colts (-110) (DraftKings) 

The Colts opened as 1.5-point favorites against the Titans and this line quickly shifted in favor of Tennessee. The Titans have owned this matchup recently winning the last 5 games against the Colts. This is just a really bad matchup for the Colts. Richardson has been a great rusher but has been inconsistent as a passer with a 56.9% completion percentage. The Titans absolutely shut down the run allowing only 2.9 yards per carry which is the best in the NFL.

The Titans have been great for us this season winning and covering the last two times we have taken them. Even with the return of Jonathan Taylor, I like the Titans to win and cover this number.

Confidence Rating: 10/10 

Bonus Player Props 

Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown (+115) 

Bijan Robinson has been electric so far this season averaging 6 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per reception. However, he only has one touchdown on the year and has not scored a rushing touchdown yet this season. In a great matchup against a Texans team that allows 4.4 yards per carry and the most rushing touchdowns on the season (7), I like Bijan to find the endzone in week 5. 

Jaylen Waddle Over 61.5 receiving yards (-125) 

This feels like a squeaky wheel game. Jaylen Waddle is one of the most talented players in the NFL and has yet to have a big game. In the 3 games he has played, he has already cleared this number twice. The Giants aren’t horrible against the pass, but they are not exactly good either. I like Waddle to have a big day helping the offense take care of the Giants in week 5.

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