Week 6 NFL game picks against the spread 

2023 Record: 9-8 (+.52u) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 vs Detroit Lions (-110) (DraftKings) 

The Detroit Lions were most people’s dark horse team to win the Superbowl and have lived up to the hype. The Lions are off to a 4-1 start, and the public has jumped on that bandwagon. This line opened at 3 and has stayed at 3 despite the Lions receiving 80% of the bets. We have a bit of a line freeze.

Tampa Bay is quietly 3-1 and while their offense has been mostly average (18th in yards per pass attempt), their defense has been incredibly strong, ranking in the top 10 in points allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game, and takeaways per game. The Buccaneers are getting points at home, off a bye week, and are a heavy contrarian play. I like Todd Bowles with an extra week to prepare to have his team ready for Sunday. Give me the Bucs +3. 

Confidence Rating: 8/10 

Atlanta Falcons ML vs Washington Commanders (-130) (Fanduel) 

This game has an even 50/50 bet split, keeping the line at -2.5. Usually, I like to bet on teams in a contrarian spot, but I really like the matchup here in Atlanta for a couple of reasons.

One, Desmond Ridder is 5-0 at home in the NFL and an insane 31-0 at home dating back to his college days in Cincinnati. Second, the Washington Commanders allow 133.6 rushing yards per game, and rushing is what Atalanta is best at and wants to do. Third, Washington loves to pass the ball, averaging 38.2 pass attempts per game (6th in NFL), and Atlanta has been great at defending the pass, only allowing 190.8 passing yards per game (8th in NFL).

With rumors of a coaching change in Washington after this season, I’ll take the Falcons on the money line rather than the spread just to be safe. 

Confidence Rating: 9/10 

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-105) (Fanduel) 

As an Indianapolis Colts fan, I’m very pleased with how this season has started, record-wise. The Colts are 3-2 and coming off a division win against the Texans. While Anthony Richardson is out and has been playing well, Gardner Minshew is probably the more polished “right now” quarterback.

The Jaguars have played back-to-back games in London and are coming off a huge win against the Bills as 5-point dogs. The public has raced to bet on the Jaguars, with 81% of bets on the Jags moneyline and 61% on the spread. This line opened with the Colts as 4.5-point dogs, but they have moved to 3.5-point dogs, showing some strong reverse line movement.

Despite the Colts not succeeding in Jacksonville, after two long weeks in London, I think the Jaguars have a bit of a letdown against a sneaky Colts team. 

Confidence Rating: 9/10 

**Bonus Player Props** 

Chris Godwin Anytime TD +240 

Chris Godwin is coming off his best game of the season, catching 8 balls for 114 yards on 11 targets. Godwin has 7 red zone targets on the year but no touchdown to show for it. I like some positive regression here and some nice value at +240. 

Josh Downs over 43.5 receiving yards (-115) 

Josh Downs is also coming off his best game as a pro, catching 6 balls for 97 yards on 6 targets. Gardner Minshew comes in and is a far more accurate passer than Anthony Richardson, and Shane Steichen will alter the playcalling to have more passing in this game. Downs had 30 yards on 7 targets last time out against the Jaguars and should be more efficient with Minshew under center this time.

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