“Data is the new oil.” – Clive Humby.
Does home-field advantage matter for DFS? The Baltimore Ravens have a -9.5 spread and are on the road to Arizona. Does traveling from the East to the West matter? What if the Ravens cover? How does that affect player projections? Does that mean there is no fantasy value for any Cardinals player? Are the Ravens overhyped in a road game?
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If we are to unpack all these questions and acquire answers, there is always one constant: data. In 2022, home teams won 55.8% of their games while averaging a razor-thin margin of 1.7 points in the victory. Interestingly, teams only covered the spread 48% of the time.
Current records for the 2023 season. Ready to have your mind blown?
Home teams are 57-50 (53.3%)
Away teams are 50-57 (46.7%)
Favorites are 68-39 (63.6%)
Underdogs are 39-68 (36.4%)
Away favorites are 27-16 (62.8%)
Away underdogs are 23-41 (35.9%)
Home favorites are 41-23 (64.1%)
Home underdogs are 16-27 (37.2%)
Against the Spread
Away Teams are 51-50-6 (50.5%)
Home Teams are 50-51-6 (49.5%)
Favorites are 51-50-6 (50.5%)
Underdogs are 50-51-6 (49.5%)
Away Favorites are 21-20-2 (51.2%)
Away Underdogs are 30-30-4 (50.00%)
Home Favorites are 30-30-4 (50.0%)
Home Underdogs are 20-21-2 (48.8%)
Teams projected to win will come out on top with a healthy win percentage. Against the spread, it turns into an ugly beast of nothing more than the flip of a coin, at almost an exact 50% total average across the board. Look at the spreads because they matter. In all games, the over happened 41 times, giving a dismal 38.7%.
How does this answer the questions that were first asked? Simple, both teams are pushing games to be close. In high-scoring games, be aggressive and correlate players from both sides to get exposure that makes sense. I spent a lot of time last week reviewing the correlation with salaries and what kind of projections those stacks would return. This result gave me one of the best financial weeks ever. I cleaned up in all small fields and head to heads that I was in.
Week 8 ‘Pick-Six’ Pics
1) Dak Prescott QB, DAL $6,100 – If the Cowboys defeat the Rams, their 11th straight home win would mark their longest streak since the 1991-92 season. Coincidentally, that year was the first of their three Super Bowls. How ’bout them Cowboys? At home this season, the ‘Boys have outscored opponents 68-13. The Ram’s defense is not as fearsome as it once was, and this game has both teams looking like they will push each other to outpace the projected scoring.
2) Damien Pierce RB, HOU $5,300 – This one might hurt the eyes, but hear me out. The Panthers are ranked as the 2nd worst team against running backs and allow 4.9 YPC. I know his carry shares are getting wrecked by Devin Singletary. This game screams ball control on the road, and the Texans D will provide enough pushback against a struggling Panthers offense. This team has had a daunting schedule against excellent teams against the run—time for a juicer.
3) CeeDee Lamb WR, DAL $7,600 – The squeaky wheel always gets the grease. Lamb is on track for his best statistical season yet. The issue is that he only has one touchdown. I expect that to change this week. RB Pollard will play a significant role, and I expect them to feed the passing game to stay ahead in this one. Gallup is a great pivot play, but the ceiling of Lamb is far greater.
4) Tyler Higbee TE, LAR $3,300 – Have you ever gone into a gas station and an awesome DVD was only $5, so you bought it? I did once, and it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers documentary on their 2002 Super Bowl 37 victory. I was the only person wearing red at that Super Bowl party. It’s tough as a Bucs fan, so you find the small victories when you can. Higbee is my week 8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl DVD. For only $3.3k, we are getting a top 10 TE in efficiency metrics and has a QB who throws the ball for an average of 36.6 times per game. TEs also correlate extremely well as bringbacks in stacking games.
5) Chris Olave, NO $6,400 – No QB has more deep ball attempts than Derek Carr this season. He has seven more than the next contestant. He also averages 36 passing attempts per game, and they either for 1 yard to Kamara or 40 yards downfield to anyone wearing a Saints jersey. Olave is T-7th overall for targets, a metric we always want to attack. Volume is king, and he suffers the same fate as CeeDee Lamb, only one TD on the season.
6) Vikings DST, MIN $2,500 – Playing a dissolving Packers team and coming off a massive Monday night victory against the 49ers. The Vikings have phenomenal value against a team that is ranked 6th last in both passing and rushing yards. They are ranked 2nd with ten forced fumbles and scooped two of those to the house.
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