With a tough week last week, we look to bounce back in week 8. We are looking to bounce back by teasing down some big favorites through key numbers and backing some good trends.
The overs went one for two last week, with a late Jordan Love interception sealing a chance at going two for two. Both unders missed as the Browns and Colts had one of the craziest games of the season, and the Raiders scored a meaningless touchdown with a minute left (after somehow giving up 30 points to the Bears). This week we are taking very low numbers on the overs and unders, and we hope to be on the right side of the numbers this week.
Hopefully, we will be able to get the good times rolling and pick some more winners this week; let’s get to it.
6-point Teaser of the Week
Lions (-2) vs Raiders – The Lions are coming off an embarrassing loss at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. Expect them to bounce back in a big way this week. Not only will they have the motivation going into this matchup, but once it starts, they will have a raucous Monday Night Football crowd in Detroit ready to add to the Lions’ strength and the Raiders’ troubles. Jimmy G looks to be back for the Raiders but we’re not sure how healthy he really is. The Raiders will need to rely on Jimmy G as Josh Jacobs will get shut down facing the NFL’s best-rushing defense (maybe #2 behind the Eagles).
I expect the Lions to get up early and score often against a Raiders defense that gave up 30 points to the Chicago Bears with a backup QB! Then once they get the lead, they will unleash Aidan Hutchinson to finish the job.
Eagles (-1) at Commanders – The biggest mismatch of this weekend is the Eagles defensive line versus the Commanders offensive line and the most indecisive QB maybe of all time. Last Sunday, New York sacked Howell six times, giving Howell an NFL-leading 40 sacks through seven games this season. No one else in the NFL has been sacked even 30 times this season. Over a 17-game season, Howell’s current total would project to 97 sacks. To put that in perspective, the NFL record for most times sacked in a season is 76.
Clearly, this is a huge matchup advantage for Philadelphia as they are tied for 3rd in sacks in the league. Also, they still have Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, who should stay hot and dominate this matchup, take the bird to complete the season sweep over Washington.
7-point Teaser of the Week
Ravens (-2.5) at Cardinals – These teams are on two different trajectories right now, one team trending towards the playoffs and the other at a chance to draft Caleb Williams. The Ravens were hitting on all cylinders last week in their shellacking of Detroit, showing that they finally are putting it all together on offense to match with this elite defense.
After a spunky start to the season, the Arizona Cardinals have come crashing down to earth since that win over the Cowboys. In their last four games since the Dallas game, they have lost by 19, 14, 17, and 10. With the Ravens playing like the best team in the league, give me them to cover by at least a field goal against the Cardinals, who keep losing by double digits.
Chiefs (ML) at Broncos – The Chiefs have won straight up against the Broncos 16 times in a row! 16 times! I’m not sure you need to hear anything other than that to add Chiefs to your teaser portfolio this week, but I’ll also add a couple of insane Mahomes/Chiefs trends. Mahomes is 29-3 straight up against the AFC West, which is a stat so dominant you must check it two or three times before writing it. Mahomes is also 19-0 away from home as a favorite of 5 points or more. Do keep an eye on the weather report, as this does look to be the first snow game of the year, but even so, that won’t be enough to scare me off; add Chiefs ML.
Bonus Teaser of the Week: Revenge of #2 Pick (7 points)
Texans (+3.5) at Panthers/Texans at Panthers over 36.5 – The Panthers decided to take Bryce Love over CJ Stroud in the draft this year, but Sunday Stroud is going to make them wish they had a redo. Stroud has looked like everything you could want in a 1st round rookie QB while Young has left a lot of questions unanswered going into his bye week. Getting the Texans with points feels very nice in a matchup. They should have the QB and coaching advantage. We’ll also take the over as both teams will be coming off byes, giving them extra time to help work with their young QBs. I think both teams should be able to get to at least 20 points in what should be a back-and-forth battle. Both teams will be looking to put on a show in this one; hopefully, we get some fireworks.
Overs of the Week
Texans at Panthers (Over 43.5) – We are double dipping in the over for this one for the same points as above, just this time we don’t get the extra 7 points. Coming off byes will be huge for these rookie QBs; I expect to see some extra wrinkles added in this week. Expect both teams to go all out to prove they took the right guy at QB in this year’s draft.
Raiders at Lions (Over 46) – As I said above, the Lions will be looking for blood this week after getting demolished by the Ravens last week. They should be able to do whatever they want this week against a defense that gave up 30 points to the Bears last week. While the Raiders looked very bad offensively last week, they do get Jimmy G back this week, which should help them be more productive and help the Lions reach this total. The Lions’ stout run defense will also force the Raiders to throw more, hopefully leading to more big plays and points. With Lions running back David Montgomery sitting for another week as well, it looks like Goff will need to do more throwing himself, which will hopefully lead to a Lions route on Monday Night Football with pride of points.
Unders of the Week
Falcons at Titans (Under 35) – I’m not sure they could have made a number low enough for me to stay away from this total. Both of these coaches would love to win a game 3-0, and this might just be their chance to. Add in that the Titans will be throwing out Will Levis for his first NFL start and this game has a recipe for 0 times shown on the Redone channel this Sunday. Hopefully, Bijan is back out there healthy and playing, but even with him leading the Falcons backfield, I still love this under.
Jets at Giants (Under 35) – Another match-up that looks like an under-bettors dream scenario featuring an amazing defensive-minded head coach who wants to control the game and run the clock out to protect his child of a QB. While the Giants counter with Tyrod Taylor, who is notorious for not turning the ball over (good) but also being so uber-conservative, his team rarely makes it to the red zone (bad). The two teams will spend the day battling it out for field position and trading field goals, which should be perfect for our under.
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