2023 fantasy football preview: NFC North

This series will analyze every NFL team by division to forecast key fantasy football performances and overall team outlooks with futures bets in mind.

Divisional fantasy analysis:
AFC North | AFC South | AFC East | AFC West
NFC North | NFC South | NFC East | NFC West

Minnesota Vikings 

2022 Record: 13-4 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 8.5 Wins (Over) 

Team Outlook: I remembered the Vikings were good last regular season, but being completely transparent, I forgot they were 13 wins good. It was a super impressive season that got them the NFC North crown. However, if you watched football last year, most people thought they were frauds, and that showed when they lost to the Giants in the wild-card round. The Vikings won a record 11 one-possession games, which is a stat that tends to change on a year-to-year basis. Still, I believe in Kevin O’Connell and this Vikings offense to win at least nine games. It’s a fantasy offense you want a piece of. 

Quarterback 

Kirk Cousins, Average Draft Position 106.3, QB13 (FantasyPros ADP) 

If you watched the Netflix show, “Quarterback”, you just want to root for Kirk Cousins. He gets ripped all the time for not winning prime time or playoff games, but he’s a great guy and truly cares about football. You’re here for fantasy football I know, apologies. From a fantasy perspective, Kirk Cousins has been pretty good and has been able to stuff the stat sheet. Last season he finished as the QB7 with the addition of Kevin O’connell’s passing game instead of Mike Zimmer’s running game.

The Vikings were 3rd in total passing attempts last season and this season the Vikings lost Dalvin Cook and drafted 1st round wide receiver Jordan Addison, which could mean more passing attempts for the Vikings. Oh yeah, he throws to this guy Justin Jefferson too. Fun fact, according to Las Vegas, Cousins has the 5th highest odds to lead the league in passing touchdowns and the 4th highest odds to lead the league in passing yards. Kirk Cousins is a guy I like grabbing as a pair with a higher risk higher upside guy like Tua or Anthony Richardson. 

Running Back 

Alexander Mattison, Average Draft Position 57.3, RB22 (FantasyPros ADP)

Alexander Mattison has been a reliable backup running back for years behind Dalvin Cook. This year, Cook leaves and Mattison is projected to get much more volume as the lead back in Minnesota. In the games Cook has missed, Mattison has performed in small sample sizes. In the games that Cook missed in 2021, he scored 20.1, 22.8, 19.9, and 14.5 fantasy points for an average of 19.3 fantasy points, which would have been 3rd amongst running backs.

His yards per attempt, target, and touch have all gone down since his rookie season as well as his yards after contact and breakaway run rate. He’s just not that good of a runner. This year I am out on Mattison and fear he is the classic, dead-zone running back. 

Ty Chandler, Average Draft Position, Undrafted (FantasyPros ADP) 

A 5th round pick in the past NFL draft, Ty Chandler is free in your fantasy leagues. Some of that might be because of the looming rumors of Kareem Hunt potentially signing in Minnesota, but Chandler is another great late-round flier at running back. Chandler handled 11 carries for 41 yards in the last preseason game. While that isn’t efficient, it showed he got most of the work when Mattison was out. In the last pick of your draft, you could do worse than Ty Chandler who could surpass Mattison if he remains inefficient. 

Wide Receiver 

Justin Jefferson, Average Draft Position 1.0, WR1 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Don’t need to waste much time on this one. He’s the number one overall wide receiver and player for a reason. He’s had the best 3-year start of any receiver in NFL history. Yes, Jordan Addison joins the team which is another mouth to feed, but Jefferson will get his before any go to Addison. He would be my number-one overall pick in fantasy leagues this year. 

Jordan Addison, Average Draft Position 94.0, WR37 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I wrote about Jordan Addison in my “Must Have” fantasy football wide receivers article. Every season, rookie wide receivers significantly outperform their ADP and are incredibly valuable in fantasy football. Adam Thielen has left town and leaves 111 targets for Addison to clean up.

With Kevin O’Connell as head coach, the Vikings went from an extremely run-heavy offense to having the 3rd most passing attempts last year with 672. Some of that will go to T.J. Hockenson but the majority will go to Addison who is a great talent out of USC. With defenses scheming against Justin Jefferson, Addison has the opportunity to shine in Minnesota. He’s my WR35 and someone I am targeting as my WR3/4. 

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson, Average Draft Position 43.3, TE3 (FantasyPros ADP) 

To me, there are 5 tight ends that can truly emerge as difference makers at the position this season. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller, and Kyle Pitts. The other four besides Hockenson, could emerge as the number one target in their offense. Hockenson will at best be the number two target on his team, but the Vikings pass the ball so much and with Dalvin Cook gone they could pass more. Jordan Addison has arrived in Minnesota, but he’ll have to beat out Hockenson before second on the team in targets is handed to him. Hockenson finished as the TE2 last season and with a full season in Minnesota, could close the gap between Kelce and the rest. 

Update: Hockenson still missed a ton of time in camp with an “ear infection” and “back problems”. I put these in quotes because it seems like they are contract-related. I’ll pass on Hockenson in round 4 while he is still out of camp.

Detroit Lions 

2022 Record: 9-8 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 9.5 Wins (Under) 

Team Outlook: After starting the season off 1-6 in 2022, the Lions went 8-2 down the stretch and because of that, EVERYONE loves the Lions this season. It makes sense, they have a solid quarterback in Jared Goff, an elite offensive line, and good skill position players. It hurts me to say it because I love Dan Campbell, but this is still the Detroit Lions that we are talking about. The defense was horrific last year and while they made some additions on paper, we’ll see if they can really put it together. From a fantasy perspective, I expect this offense to be explosive and you’ll want some part of it in 2023. 

Quarterback

Jared Goff, Average Draft Position 127.0, QB17 (FantasyPros ADP) 

When the pieces around Jared Goff are good, especially the offensive line, Jared Goff is a very effective quarterback. He’s a great guy to root for after the Rams gave up on him. Last year, in fantasy football, Jared Goff finished as the QB10.

There is some room for Jared Goff to grow. He doesn’t offer much as a rusher, but with Amon-Ra St. Brown, rookie TE Sam LaPorta, and 1st round running back Jahmyr Gibbs, Goff has additional weapons around him. Jameson Williams also will come back after a six-game suspension. If you want to wait on a quarterback and stream the position, the Lions start with the Chiefs and Seahawks, which should both be high-scoring affairs. 

Running Back 

Jahmyr Gibbs, Average Draft Position 35.0, RB14 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The Lions selected Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in this year’s draft. He’s an explosive runner, a great pass catcher, but slight at 5’9” and 199 pounds. Gibbs has been flying up draft boards and is currently being taken at the back end of the 3rd round in fantasy drafts. If Bijan Robinson did not exist, I tend to think Gibbs would be going higher but people are scared to put two rookies very high. Unlike Robinson, I am worried about competition for touches. The Lions brought in David Montgomery who should take over the Jamaal Williams role in the red zone and take away those high-value touches. Still, Gibbs can expand his role as the season progresses because of the talent he has. He’s my RB13. 

David Montgomery, Average Draft Position 75.7, RB30 (FantasyPros ADP) 

In 2022, Jamaal Williams finished as the RB7. David Montgomery fills that role so he is now my RB7. Just kidding. Jamaal Williams scored a ridiculous 17 rushing touchdowns that won’t be repeated again. However, there is a big chance Montgomery will score double-digit touchdowns. Not only that, this is easily the best offensive line he has run behind in his career. He’s probably a better talent than Williams was and he’s still just 26 years old. At the beginning of round 8, Montgomery offers great value. He’s my RB28. 

Wide Receiver 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Average Draft Position 19.0, WR9 (FantasyPros ADP) 

If I can get Amon-Ra St. Brown at pretty much any point in round 2 I am taking him. St. Brown was 10th in targets per game last year at 9.1 and is Jared Goff’s go-to receiver. I love Jameson Williams as a talent, but he’s missing the first six games because of a suspension. This passing game will go entirely through St. Brown. People point out Amon-Ra St. Brown’s lack of touchdowns with only 6 touchdowns last year, but he still finished as the WR9 on a points-per-game basis because of the amount of catches he gets. If St. Brown gets some touchdown regression, he could finish as the overall number-one wide receiver. He’s my WR6. 

Jameson Williams, Average Draft Position 132.3, WR50 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Jameson Williams is suspended for the first 6 games of the season due to gambling issues this past year. Although there is strong upside, I am out on Williams in 2023 for roster management reasons. Early in the year, there are players coming off the waiver wire who can be huge difference-makers for your team. You need to be able to have a fluid roster and waiting on Jameson Williams prevents that. He could help later in the year, but so could so many other players who are not suspended. 

Tight End 

Sam LaPorta, Average Draft Position 163.3, TE17 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Another upside tight end that if I am waiting at the position, I like to pair with another tight end. Rookie tight ends don’t fare well but LaPorta goes into an opportunity where he can be second on the team in targets from the start. He’s my TE15 and someone I’ll take a flier on if I punt the position for running backs and wide receivers.

Green Bay Packers 

2022 Record: 8-9 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 7.5 Wins (Over) 

Team Outlook: It’s a little bold, but the Packers are my pick to win the NFC North at +400. The Packers are moving from the Aaron Rodgers era to the Jordan Love era, and I think it will be a smoother transition than people think. Just last season, the Seahawks moved on from Russell Wilson and everyone thought they were doomed. Geno Smith rose to the occasion and the Seahawks made the playoffs while Russell Wilson fell flat on his face.

The Seahawks players and coaches heard they were doomed without their franchise quarterback and used it to fuel a great season and the Packers should do the same. I believe Matt LeFleur is a great coach and will have this team ready to go. They still have 8 first-round players on defense, a great offensive line and running game, and some fun, exciting, receivers and tight ends. 

Quarterback 

Jordan Love, Average Draft Position 157.5, QB22 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I hate this narrative of some people thinking Jordan Love is good or Jordan Love is bad. The fact of the matter is, no one knows! What I do know is that he has young, talented receivers, one of the best running back rooms in football, a great offensive line, a good defense, and a coach with a 71% winning percentage over 66 games.

Love was 26th overall by the Packers, which shows NFL scouts thought he had talent and has had the chance to learn from Aaron Rodgers for the past three seasons. In two-quarterback leagues, I do think the Packers will run a lot more, but Love has upside in this offense. In one-quarterback leagues, I am not drafting him, but I have faith in him to support fantasy pieces in this offense. 

Running Back 

Aaron Jones, Average Draft Position 43.0, RB18 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Owning Aaron Jones as a fantasy owner is an up-and-down experience. He’s finished as RB5, RB12, and RB9 the last three seasons, but he is a boom-or-bust type of player from week to week. Jones has been one of the most efficient backs in the NFL with Aaron Rodgers, which has allowed him to thrive as a player.

While the offense will most likely not be as efficient without Rodgers, Jones could see a higher volume on the ground with LaFleur really running his offense. Jones goes off the board in round 4 as the RB18, which I am on board with. He’s my RB15. 

A.J. Dillon, Average Draft Position 89.7, RB32 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Each year, AJ Dillon has been hyped up to take a large percentage of the role in Green Bay and take over high-valued touches in the red zone. At the end of the season last year, that began to happen. He had 29 red zone touches on the year, and from Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried teammate Aaron Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5. Matt LaFleur will want to run the ball more to take pressure off Jordan Love, and the Packers may want to squeeze as much as they can out of Dillon as he enters into the final year of his contract. If anything were to happen to Aaron Jones, Dillon is an RB1. He’s my RB31 and he’s a fine pick in round 8. 

Wide Receiver 

Christian Watson, Average Draft Position 63.3, WR25 (FantasyPros ADP) 

This is my #1 target in 2023 fantasy football drafts. From weeks 10-18 last year, Christian Watson was the WR7. Watson was hyper-efficient and won’t be able to maintain that pace (8 touchdowns) but Allen Lazard has left town leaving 100 vacated targets behind. He was 9th in yards per route run last year and is a great deep ball receiver running a 4.36 40 time.

Matt LaFleur even draws up extra rushing plays for Watson to get the ball in his hands, and recently referred to him as, “One of the most intelligent players I’ve ever been around, especially at the wide receiver position.” Yes, he struggled with drops last season, but his upside is so high. I love Watson as my WR2 and want to leave every draft I have with him. I’d take him as early as round 4, he’s my WR16. 

Romeo Doubs, Average Draft Position 152.3, WR55 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Like I said, I am totally in on Christian Watson, but that doesn’t mean I can’t be wrong. Christian Watson hasn’t clearly established himself as a number one wide receiver and his route running definitely needs some work. Doubs has a chance to carve out a nice role as a better route runner and Love’s check-down option aside from Aaron Jones. If I somehow do not grab Watson, Doubs is a young receiver worth taking a flier on. 

Tight End 

Luke Musgrave, Average Draft Position 200.3, TE26 (FantasyPros ADP)

If you punt on the tight end, Luke Musgrave is a sleeper name you want to be aware of for late in your drafts. The Packers traded up to the 42nd spot in order to draft Musgrave, showing that they wanted him for this offense. He’s a 6’6” 253-pound tight end with 4.6 speed that can break in and out of routes. He’s been doing well in training camp and is another tight-end flier to try and help you figure out this impossible position in fantasy.

Chicago Bears

2022 Record: 3-14 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 7.5 Wins (Over) 

Team Outlook: The Chicago Bears were dreadful last season finishing the year at 3-14. However, the one bright spot was that Justin Fields shined and showed how explosive of a running quarterback he could be. However, Fields needs to improve as a passer, and the team brought in former Carolina Panthers WR DJ Moore in order to do that. Does it work? Trends have shown us in the past that bringing in a high-end talented WR could make all the difference and I think it will for Fields in 2023. 

Quarterback 

Justin Fields, Average Draft Position 45.7, QB7 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I wrote about Fields in my last “Must Have” fantasy quarterback series and really highlighted how much a running quarterback makes all the difference in fantasy football. Of the 5 quarterbacks (Fields, Jackson, Allen, Hertz, Jones) who rushed for over 500 yards last season, 5 finished in the top 10 in 4 points per passing touchdown leagues. It makes all the difference! 

Fields rushed for 1,000 yards and that is totally in his range of outcomes this season. Fields finished as the QB6 this past season and now adds DJ Moore who can be the receiver to help with the accuracy problems that he’s had. If the throwing improves, Fields has the overall QB1 in his range of outcomes which is why he sits as my QB5. 

Running Back 

Khalil Herbert, Average Draft Position 100.3, RB37 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Running backs always are more efficient when they run alongside an elite running quarterback. Khalil Herbert showed that last season averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Herbert is the starting running back on this team, but he struggled a lot in pass blocking which could hurt his ability to stay on the field on 3rd down. At pick 100, he’s a young, efficient back who could break out on the ground. He’s well worth the pick as a depth running back. I have him at RB30.

Roschon Johnson, Average Draft Position 161.0, RB52 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Bijan Robinson got all the love at Texas because he really is a generational prospect. But Roschon Johnson can flat-out play. The Bears took him in the 4th round and he already has gotten off to a good start, getting 14 touches in the Bears first preseason game and breaking off a nice run. Herbert is the lead, but Johnson could be on the field in passing situations. I’d rather have Herbert at cost, but I still like Johnson as well at RB52. 

Wide Receiver 

D.J. Moore, Average Draft Position 53.7, WR22 (FantasyPros ADP) 

If I am all in on the Justin Fields breakout, I have to also be in on D.J. Moore having a good season. Moore is a great route runner and separator which could be just what Justin Fields needs to evolve as a passer. Part of me feels bad for Moore because he really has never had a truly accurate and elite quarterback throwing him passes. For the past 4 seasons, Moore has always finished around WR20 and should be in that range again. I have D.J. Moore as my WR17 for the upcoming season. 

Tight End 

Cole Kmet, Average Draft Position 129.7, TE11 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The Bears signed Cole Kmet to a four-year 50 million dollar contract with 32 million guaranteed (imagine being Saquon Barkley and seeing that). Cole Kmet finished as the TE7 last season but now the Bears brought in Moore, which will undoubtedly take away Kmet’s chances to lead the team in targets like he did in 2022. Kmet is a solid blocker which also could take away his chances of getting a healthy diet of targets. Still, there isn’t much behind him which gives him a chance at being second on this team in targets, which makes him a valuable pick. He’s my TE9.

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