2023 fantasy football preview: NFC West

This series will analyze every NFL team by division to forecast key fantasy football performances and overall team outlooks with futures bets in mind.

Divisional fantasy analysis:
AFC North | AFC South | AFC East | AFC West
NFC North | NFC South | NFC East | NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 

2022 Record: 13-4 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 10.5 (Over) 

Team Outlook:

While I am skeptical Brock Purdy can perform as well as he did last season, I have so much faith in Kyle Shannahan and this roster to have them winning less than 11 games. The Seahawks are definitely on the rise and the 49ers window is closing, but this team gave up multiple first-rounders to miss on Trey Lance and are still elite from a roster perspective. From a fantasy perspective, the only thing I don’t like is trying to figure out who will be the best receiving option. Kyle Shannahan will draw up plays for all of them, but figuring out who will explode week to week will be difficult for season-long leagues. Still, this offense will be humming and there are a ton of fantasy assets in this offense. 

Quarterback

Brock Purdy, Average Draft Position 168.0, QB21 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Mr. Irrelevant of 2022 was far from that when the biggest games came around. Brock Purdy was a huge reason the 49ers were able to make the NFC Championship this past season. If he hadn’t torn his UCL in the NFC Championship, the 49ers might have made the Super Bowl. The question is, can he repeat it? I’m torn because, at the end of the day, he was the last pick in the NFL draft. However, his coach is Kyle Shannahan who makes quarterbacks look great in his offense. In fantasy football, you’re not drafting Brock Purdy in one-quarterback leagues. For those streaming the position or playing in two-QB leagues, Purdy is a low-end QB2 with good upside because he plays for Kyle Shannahan and has great weapons around him.

Running Back

Running Back 

Christian McCaffrey, Average Draft Position 2.0, RB1 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Two things concern me for Christian McCaffrey this season. Elijah Mitchell’s usage when he was healthy and him being 27 years old. However, this is Christian McCaffrey in a Kyle Shannahan run game. If you have a top 3 pick and prefer to anchor down with a running back, McCaffrey is my number 1 running back for the season. 

Elijah Mitchell, Average Draft Position 126.3, RB41 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Elijah Mitchell is another running back who is of course the definite backup, but someone with a path to fantasy success with an injury. Mitchell has done well in the past for the 49ers and if anything happens to McCaffrey he’s a middle to high-end RB2. He’ll still have a role with McCaffrey playing, but not enough for him to be a reliable flex starter. 

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel, Average Draft Position 40.0, WR17 (FantasyPros ADP) 

After finishing as the overall WR2 in 2021, Deebo Samuel fell off big time in 2022 finishing as the WR26 on a points-per-game basis. He missed some time with injury, but a lot of people in the fantasy community predicted this because of how insanely efficient he was in 2021. Deebo Samuel is a fantastic football player but the problem is how many mouths there are to feed in San Francisco. Not only that, but the 49ers also just do not pass the ball very much (26th in NFL). Deebo Samuel was the WR59 once McCaffrey joined the team. I am definitely out on Samuel at his current ADP. 

Brandon Aiyuk, Average Draft Position 65.7, WR26 (FantasyPros ADP) 

If I am out on Deebo Samuel because there are too many mouths to feed, I have to be out on Aiyuk as well. It’s nice that Aiyuk goes two rounds later, but still, I think both will be a pain to own in fantasy this season. They both will have good weeks, but it will be incredibly difficult to know when it is a Deebo, Aiyuk, or Kittle week. Aiyuk has a better chance at beating his ADP, but I’ll also be out on the 49ers pass catcher this season based on where he’s going. 

Tight End

George Kittle, Average Draft Position 50.0, TE4 (FantasyPros ADP) 

If you read any of my past articles, you would know that if I am going to take a tight end, I want them to have league-winning upside. Historically, that means that they are playing on a good offense and will finish first or second on their team in targets. George Kittle has a chance at that as he finished 3rd on his team in targets, but that was also with Christian McCaffrey only having half a season with the 49ers. The beginning of round 5 is too early for me, but if he falls to the middle/end of round 6, Kittle has solid upside, even if it’s not league-winning.

Seattle Seahawks 

2022 Record: 9-8 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 8.5 (Over) 

Team Outlook: Vegas seems to also think the over 8.5 wins is most likely for the Seahawks as it sits at -142. I have to admit, I used to trash Pete Carroll for his old style of offense, and for not letting Russell Wilson Cook. I was wrong. Wilson looked lost last year and no matter where he is, Pete Carroll makes successful football teams. Geno Smith had a great season and the Seahawks extended him this offseason. This team is young and Pete Carroll gets the most out of young football teams probably because of the ridiculous energy he has even at age 71. This could be a big breakout year for the Seahawks and it would not surprise me if they take the NFC West. 

Quarterback

Geno Smith, Average Draft Position 115.7, QB16 (FantasyPros ADP) 

They wrote him off, but he didn’t write back. Geno Smith proved himself a solid starter after years of being a backup. He finished as the QB5 on the season and the QB8 on a points-per-game basis. Geno has solid rushing upside after finishing with 366 yards last season and I’m not sure I understand his QB16 ADP. He still has Tyler Lockett. He still has DK Metcalf. He adds Jaxon Smith-Njigba who is injured currently but was a fantastic wide receiver prospect. If I wait on Quarterback, I love getting Geno Smith who starts his first 2 weeks with the Rams and Lions, and pairing him with an upside quarterback like Anthony Richarson and Tua Tagovailoa who carry some risk. Geno is my QB13. 

Running Back

Kenneth Walker, Average Draft Position 39.7, RB17 (FantasyPros ADP) 

If I am drafting running backs in the RB dead zone (Rounds 4-6), I want them to be young, on a good offense, have a good offensive line, and have shown efficiency. Check, Check, maybe check, and kinda check. Kenneth Walker was the RB14 on a points-per-game basis last season, but his efficiency was weird to understand. He showed fantastic breakaway ability last year with 21

runs over 20 yards (1st in NFL), but finished with 4.6 yards per carry (15th in NFL for running backs with over 100 carries). If he didn’t break a long run, Kenneth Walker was getting swallowed up a couple of yards after, at, or before the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet which could possibly take Walker off the field because of that issue. He is a high-risk/high-reward pick that I prefer to see if I can pick in round 5, rather than early round 4. 

Zach Charbonnet, Average Draft Position 107.7, RB37 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I feel like I am beating a dead horse writing some of these about young rookie running backs. However, the same point remains. For late-round picks, you should shoot for the moon! Zach Charbonnet has a high upside and has a chance to take over Kenneth Walker’s role. The Seahawks spent a round-two pick on Charbonnet because of his performance at UCLA and because they want to use him in this offense. He’s another flier I want to take in late round 9/early round 10. 

Wide Receiver

D.K. Metcalf, Average Draft Position 35.7, WR15 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Prior to the Jaxon Smith-Njigba injury, DK Metcalf was my WR25. However, because Njigba will miss some time, I moved Metcalf up to my WR20 which is still 5 spots below ADP. D.K. Metcalf will have big games, but when Njigba comes back, there’s an argument to be made that he is the third-best receiver on his own team. Lockett was better than him last season with Geno Smith, and only one or two spots behind him the the two other seasons with Russell Wilson. DK is an end-of-round 4 pick for me and not a round 3 pick. 

Tyler Lockett, Average Draft Position 65.3, WR25 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I have Tyler Lockett ranked exactly at WR25 agreed with ADP, but he is one player I feel most nervous about being wrong. Over the last 3 seasons, Lockett has been incredibly efficient and has never finished lower than WR13. His consistency in fantasy can be tough to manage in season-long leagues, but when he blows up you win your week. While I have him ranked at WR25, it doesn’t feel like he can finish worse than that because of the Njigba injury. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Average Draft Position 96.0, WR38 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Drafting rookie running backs or rookie wide receivers is usually a long-term play in fantasy football. They may not be great to start the season, but they can win leagues by the end. That might be the case for JSN this season. JSN broke his wrist and could miss multiple weeks, but looked explosive in the preseason. Let’s not forget, Smith-Njigba bested his teammates in yards per game (73.8 compared to 65.1 and 57.6) and catches per game (4.8 compared to 4.2 and 3.7) while matching Olave in yards per catch at 15.4, just 0.1 yard behind Wilson (Logan Hanson BVM Sports). I am happy to take Njigba as my WR4. 

Tight End

Noah Fant, Average Draft Position 267.0, TE36 (FantasyPros ADP) 

I forgot Noah Fant played for the Seahawks. I am out on Noah Fant, and so are you.

Los Angeles Rams 

2022 Record: 5-12 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 6.5 (Under)

Team Outlook: F them picks. It worked for the 2021 season, but the Rams look like they can be in some trouble. McVay is still there which will help, but this is an old aging roster that needs to rebuild. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp had big injuries last year, and Aaron Donald just is not the same player. It might take some time for the Rams to emerge as NFC West contenders and I think this year can be a bad one in Los Angeles.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Average Draft Position 173.0, QB23 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The Los Angeles Rams and Matthew Stafford both benefited from each other. The Rams got the quarterback they needed to win a Super Bowl, and Matthew Stafford got the roster he needed to win his first Superbowl. However, Stafford has an injury-riddled past, and that showed even more so last season. At 35, Stafford seems like a quarterback who will continue to get dinged up and doesn’t offer much upside with the little weapons he has around him. If both he and Kupp can stay healthy for a whole year, I still don’t see him finishing much higher than QB23. 

Running Back

Cam Akers, Average Draft Position 57.0, RB22 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Not a running back that I have been targeting in drafts. Akers is young and has shown flashes of efficiency in the NFL, but the Ram’s offensive line looks questionable and they do not particularly throw to running backs very often. I actually have him ranked as a value, currently as the RB20, but I just like the wide receivers and quarterbacks over Akers in this range. He’s a fine RB2, but he isn’t the type of running back with league-winning upside because of his situation.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp, Average Draft Position 7.3, WR4 (FantasyPros ADP) 

In 2022, Cooper Kupp picked up right where he left off in 2021 before getting injured. I had Kupp in multiple leagues and he was phenomenal averaging 18.2 points per game in half ppr which was the highest in fantasy football amongst wide receivers. I have Kupp ranked as my WR4, but I am nervous about the injury last season, Matthew Stafford’s health, and Kupp arriving at 30 years of age. He’ll be a high-end wide receiver as long as he and Stafford are healthy, but that’s a big IF and I feel that he won’t be able to dominate fantasy like he did now at age 30. 

Tight End

Tyler Higbee, Average Draft Position 154.7, TE16 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Like Cooper Kupp, Higbee is at age 30. Tight ends tend to play a little later than wide receivers before falling off, but it is still a concern and Higbee has never really proven to be much in fantasy other than a few short spurts. However, Higbee was 1st on the team in targets last year through the Cooper Kupp injury and has a good chance at finishing second in targets this year. That’s valuable in fantasy for the tight end position and if you want to wait till the end, Higbee is a solid option because he can possibly do more than just score touchdowns. He’s my TE11.

Arizona Cardinals 

2022 Record: 4-13 

Vegas Expected Win Total: 4.5 (Under) 

Team Outlook: The parity of the NFL tells me that getting a team to win 4.5 games at + money is decent value. But wow, yuck, this team will be horrible. I previously wrote that I thought the Raiders would be the worst team in the NFL, but with Kyler Murray staying on the PUP, and Isaiah Simmons being traded to the Giants for a 7th-round pick, I want to switch. The tank for Caleb Williams has begun. There may be some fantasy options just because of volume and how often this team will be down, but it could also be such a bad offense that it kills everyone’s fantasy value. 

Quarterback

Kyler Murray, Average Draft Position 201.0, QB29 (FantasyPros ADP) 

It was just announced as I am writing this that Kyler Murray will start the season on the PUP list which means he will miss at least the first 6 games of the season. Murray tore his ACL last season and it looks like the Cardinals are in full tank mode. If you really want Murray and think he will play this season, draft him with your last pick, and then put him in your IR spot.

Running Back

James Conner, Average Draft Position 60.7, RB23 (FantasyPros ADP) 

At age 28 and playing on what will be a horrible offense, James Conner feels like a dead-zone running back. He’s not very efficient and what is driving up draft boards is the perceived volume he should get. Conner did receive 229 touches last season and to be fair, I am not sure who else would get the touches besides Conner, but we have said that about running backs in the past (Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis). I am out on James Conner in 2023 unless he falls to round 7 or 8, and I have a zero/hero RB draft.

Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown, Average Draft Position 88.0, WR35 (FantasyPros ADP) 

To be 100% honest, I’m not sure I want to draft any member of the Arizona Cardinals now that they also cut Colt McCoy and Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune will be their starting quarterback. Still, with the Cardinals probably losing so much, and the lack of weapons in this offense, Hollywood Brown could get a lot of targets this season. The quality of those targets remains to be seen but you have to assume they’ll be bad. He’s my WR34 but I am not excited to take him. 

Rondale Moore, Average Draft Position 162.5, WR66 (FantasyPros ADP) 

Rondale Moore isn’t a bad player, but the second target on this Arizona pass game doesn’t excite me late in drafts. He could 100% emerge on the waiver wire, but I’m not drafting Rondale Moore in fantasy football drafts. 

Tight End

Zach Ertz/Trey McBride, Average Draft Position 202.3, TE24 (FantasyPros ADP) 

The ADP above is for Zach Ertz. However, as a deep, deep sleeper, I don’t mind Trey Mcbride. He’s a round 2 pick for the Cardinals and could emerge as the number two target in this offense which is so uncommon for tight ends in fantasy. Keep an eye on him early in the season on the waiver wire if you don’t draft him in fantasy.

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