Mecole Hardman was drafted No. 56 overall in the second round by the Kansas City Chiefs, but he’s poised to have a huge fantasy impact. Here’s why, according to @RobBob17.
1. Andy Reid’s Offense
Some folks care about landing spot, while others view it as an overrated fantasy component. Full transparency: I always prioritize guys in certain offenses. If you happen to be someone who thinks that the right player(s) is “system-proof”, allow me to respectfully remind you to go look up The Best Wide Receiver of All Time’s numbers during his two-year stint in Oakland from ’05 and ’06.
It matters where these guys play, and Mecole Hardman is attached to the best quarterback, play caller, and offense in football. Since 2008, Andy Reid’s offense has largely had an element of verticality with his passing game, setting the stage for undersized burners DeSean Jackson and Tyreek Hill. Below are the numbers for this specific role in Reid’s offense since the Eagles drafted Jackson in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft (sound familiar?):
- ‘08: 62 receptions, 1,008 yards, 4 TD (rookie)
- ‘09: 62 receptions, 1,293 yards, 12 TD
- ‘10: 47 receptions, 1,160 yards, 8 TD
- ‘11: 58 receptions, 1,002 yards, 4 TD
- ‘12: 45 receptions, 693 yards, 2 TD (11 games)
- ‘16: 61 receptions, 860 yards, 12 TD (rookie)
- ‘17: 75 receptions, 1,242 yards, 8 TD
- ‘18: 87 receptions, 1,630 yards, 14 TD
That’s an average of 62 receptions, 1,111 yards, 8 TDs, which equates to 190 fantasy points in Half PPR leagues, good for WR17 in 2018. We’ve seen the ceiling of what this role in Reid’s offense is capable of after last season, the sky is truly the limit when he gets his hands on this kind of speed. I’d also like to point out that only one of the seasons above included the best quarterback in football, in case you forgot.
Hardman doesn’t have to be “The Tyreek Hill Replacement” in his rookie season, Reid has a long history of developing his speedsters while still allowing them to flourish in Year One.
2. Chiefs Traded Up to Get Him
I’m always a firm believer in allowing certain front offices to earn our trust with their decisions. After picking two colossal busts at receiver in the first-round dating back to 2013 (Cordarrelle Patterson and LaQuon Treadwell), Minnesota Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman has yet to earn my trust in that regard. And before you hit me with your Adam Thielen takes, let’s not forget dude was an undrafted free agent and viewed as a hometown kid providing a feel-good story roster spot in training camp.
But I digress, I say that to say this: Brett Veach and the Chiefs front office have earned my trust with their bold decisions, especially when they decide to trade up for marquee offensive guys. In the 2017 NFL Draft, coming off a 12-4 season, the Chiefs paid a king’s ransom to the tune of their #27 overall pick, one of their third round picks, and their 2018 first round pick to move up 17 spots in order to draft this relatively unknown quarterback from Big 12 country.
How’d that move work out for them? In that same draft, the Chiefs made yet another trade up to get an additional piece for their offense. After Spencer Ware amassed 1,368 scrimmage yards in just 14 games the year prior, the Chiefs moved up 18 spots in the third round by swapping third-rounders with the Vikings, as well as sending their fourth and seventh round picks to Minnesota to draft Kareem Hunt. We all know by now of Hunt’s off the field issues, but he still led the league in rushing as a rookie.
When front offices show that they’re capable of making bold decisions that pay off, you have no choice but to trust them. While many draft “experts” had receivers such as DK Metcalf, Parris Campbell, Hakeem Butler, ranked higher, the Chiefs felt otherwise with Hardman. I’m sure those same “experts” had DeShaun Watson rated higher than Patrick Mahomes II too.
3. Chiefs Have to Replace 50.5% of 2018 Target Share
Following the release of Tyreek Hill’s troubling audio recording with his fiancé Crystal Espinal, it’s safe to assume that Hill won’t be playing football much longer for the Kansas City Chiefs, if at all elsewhere. With that comes a whooping 137 targets that go missing from 2018, below are the other targets that the Chiefs are forced to give to others in 2019.
– Chris Conley (52)
– Kareem Hunt (35)
– Demetrius Harris (25)
– Spencer Ware (23)
– De’Anthony Thomas (5)
– Kelvin Benjamin (5)
– Charcandrick West (3)
All those targets add up to 285 that will be going elsewhere this coming season. With the Chiefs likely to approach 600 pass attempts again in 2019, where will those targets go? Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and Damien Williams will obviously top this list, but what about after them? Do you really think the likes of Sammie Coates and DeMarcus Robinson will carve out a bigger role than the rookie receiver that the Chiefs just traded up to obtain?
No. 4: Sammy Watkins Has Missed 16 Games Since 2016
Sammy Watkins hasn’t exactly been the picture of health, having missed a full season’s worth of games over the past three years with a myriad of injuries. After breaking his foot in an offseason workout in 2016, he was forced to have surgery on it in January of 2017 after a teammate infamously stepped on the foot in question during a midweek walkthrough, landing him on IR for the rest of 2016.
After going relatively unscathed in 2017, the injury bug reappeared in 2018. Watkins reinjured his foot in the first quarter of Week 4’s Monday Night Football game in Denver, missing the rest of the nationally televised contest. A few weeks later the foot became an issue in a game against Cleveland, forcing Watkins to the sidelines for final five games of the regular season before returning for the postseason. Granted, Watkins looked fantastic for the Chiefs in their playoff run, compiling 176 receiving yards over two games, but how much can Kansas City rely on Watkins this season as their de facto number one receiver?
When you factor in Watkins’ extensive injury history, Hardman is staring at the real possibility of being the Chiefs’ top option at receiver if/when Watkins’ injuries reappear. Unless, of course, you think the aforementioned Sammie Coates and DeMarcus Robinson are superior options.
5. What Happened Last Time Chiefs Drafted Raw, Undeveloped Vertical Receiver
There’s been a lot of chatter among the fantasy community regarding Hardman’s unpolished skillset at receiver, and for good reason. Hardman was a five-star recruit coming out of Atlanta as a high school quarterback but switched to receiver once he stepped foot on campus in Athens, Georgia. Hardman flashed his jaw-dropping potential on a handful of different occasions while playing on college football’s biggest stage. One play that sticks out is Hardman’s 80-yard touchdown catch against Alabama in the 2018 National Championship Game.
Sure, he still has room to grow as a receiver, but isn’t that universal for all rookies, regardless of position? It sure was the case back in 2016 when the Chiefs drafted a former college running back by the name of Tyreek Hill before converting him to a receiver.
Again, Hardman doesn’t have to be Hill, nor will he be. But Reid and the Chiefs have had overwhelming success with these developmental projects at receiver in their system. And for the record, Hardman is much further along as a receiver than Hill was before he played his first NFL game.
BONUS REASON!!! Has That Chiefs Defense Gotten Any Better?!
I’ll make this one short and sweet: Nope! Buckle up for 16 more shootouts with Mahomes slinging that ball around the yard for all 60 minutes!
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