Attention Kmart Shoppers!
At the risk of triggering the PTSD of readers over 40 with the mention of Kmart, everybody loves a bargain. Whether it’s Kmart’s blue light special or undervalued fantasy football players, getting stuff at a discount is always a good thing.
And you can get discounted fantasy players just by reading this article, as opposed to having to endure hour-long (it seemed longer) trips to Kmart with your two brothers and mother in 1978-ish while my mother endlessly flipped through discount clothes racks.
Thank God Kmart carried baseball cards we could get excited about, otherwise, my brothers and I would have had absolutely nothing to do for that hour (I’m fairly certain it was closer to two) other than chasing each other hopping in and out of large, circular clothes racks. My poor mother having to wrangle three spastic boys under ten years old – wait, maybe it’s the three spastic boys who should be pitied for having to endure these trips? Don’t get me started on the trips to the craft store Michaels. OK, I’ll stop. Or, get counseling.
In all seriousness, I am extremely grateful to have had the mother and father I have had. As a teacher and ex-coach, there are so many kids who don’t have parents who fix hot meals for them, help them with their homework, support them with encouragement and advice – there are so many kids who don’t have parents around period.
OK, now I’m way off topic. Let’s get back to the cut-rate fantasy players who I think will outperform their ADP.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Seriously, what is there not to like about Mike Williams as a top-10 wide receiver? Instead, his current ADP is WR21? No comprendo.
He is in a great offense with an ascending quarterback (Justin Herbert) and an elite offensive line that just invested in another 1st round draft pick on an offensive lineman, OG Zion Johnson (2021 1st round pick Rashawn Slater 84 PFF grade in rookie season). He had 129 targets in 2021 and finished with 1146 yards and 9 touchdowns. At 6’4” and 220 lbs, he is a large red-zone target, has a high first-round draft pedigree, and he just signed a new 3-year contract worth $60 million. Teams don’t give players $60 million contracts to not use them heavily.
Arguably, teammate Keenen Allen is a higher draft pick but not for me. I’d draft Williams — 27 years old and in his prime — earlier, as Allen is going to continue to slow down in production as he gets older. Allen is currently 30 years old and had 1138 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2021 — Mike Williams already outscored Allen last year in total production (standard leagues) and Allen’s ADP is WR10. Again, no comprendo.
Yes, Williams is more of a boom/bust player with seven games of less than 10 points in PPR leagues, but consider Tyreek Hill had six games in 2021 with less than 10 PPR points — and Hill is being drafted as WR7. All this after just being downgraded from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa.
Terry McLaurin had eight of those bust games in 2021, and he’s being drafted at WR16, well ahead of Mike Williams (sorry, I don’t think Carson Wentz is that much of an upgrade). And you can’t just ignore those boom games for Williams (6 games in 2021 of 20 or more PPR points) as those games quite possibly just won you your matchup for the week. If Williams can just be a little more consistent in a few more games this year (I’m betting he can) I see him being a top 10 receiver, regardless of format.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Two words: Russell Wilson.
Make that six words: Teddy Bridgewater (and) Drew Lock.
This isn’t difficult, Russell Wilson is a very good quarterback, and the Broncos QBs in 2021, Bridgewater and Lock, were not.
Sutton is being drafted as WR26 and has already shown in 2019, with 1112 yards and 6 touchdowns, that he is capable of being much better than WR26. By the way, Sutton’s quarterbacks in 2019 were an aging Joe Flacco and the aforementioned, not-so-good Drew Lock.
Undoubtedly, Wilson is an upgrade over this 2019 QB crew with whom Sutton still managed to excel. Also consider Ceedee Lamb, who is being drafted at WR6 currently, had 1102 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2021, almost exactly the same numbers as Sutton in 2019.
If you’re still not convinced, consider the Broncos offensive line. According to PFF, the Broncos offensive line finished 2021 ranked 19th best in the NFL – not bad, not great. During the offseason, the Broncos added two quality offensive tackles in Billy Turner from the Packers and Tom Compton from the 49ers. Add these guys to quality left tackle Garrett Bolles and not only will the Broncos have a quality starting offensive line, but they will have quality depth, which can be hard to find in the NFL considering the salary cap.
Additionally, quality offensive guard Graham Glasgow missed most of 2021 with an injury and will be returning in 2022. All of this adds up to good protection for Russell Wilson and a current ranking of 16th going into the 2022 season for the Broncos offensive line according to PFF. I think their offensive line could end up better than this in 2022 when you also consider young, ascending interior linemen Dalton Risner and Lloyd Cushenberry. All of this adds up to the Broncos having a good to very good offense that will be able to consistently move the ball and have bunches of red zone opportunities.
Speaking of the red zone, at 6’4”, 215 pounds, Sutton is a large threat in this part of the field. He has been working out with Wilson during the offseason, and the two of them have publicly commented on Sutton being similar to DK Metcalf in size and skill. If you give me something close to DK Metcalf production at WR26, that is a steal. If you’re worried about Sutton’s lack of production in 2020 it was because he tore his ACL in week 2 of 2020.
If you’re worried about Jerry Jeudy having a breakout year and stealing some of Sutton’s possible production, this strikes me as a legitimate concern. However, Wilson has shown in the past he is very capable of supporting two fantasy-relevant receivers (D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) and I’d rather have the guy who has produced in the past (Sutton) as opposed to the unproven Jeudy. I could see Sutton being the high celing/low floor guy where some weeks he has about 30 yards and no touchdowns, similar to Mike Williams, but it seems likely to me that he will also have 8-10 weeks of something approaching 100 yards and a touchdown, all things considered.
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Similar to Dobbins, Singletary is going to be the lead back in a very good offense that finished No. 3 in the league at 29.8 points per game in 2021 (Dallas was No.1 at 30.4), and he is interestingly being drafted as RB26. I’m pretty sure I would draft him around RB17.
The Bills offensive line should be a slight upgrade from a rushing standpoint compared to their 2021 offensive line since they picked up road grading guard Rodger Saffold but haven’t re-signed quality guard Darryl Williams in free agency. This along with Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, and Gabriel Davis, should keep the Bills offense zipping right along as one of the league’s best.
From Weeks 15-18 of 2021, when Singletary stopped sharing carries with Zach Moss, Singletary averaged 19 carries per game, 81 yards rushing, and 1.25 touchdowns rushing per game. He also caught 8 passes for 73 yards and a touchdown over this stretch and had 40 receptions for the year. We should feel confident the phasing out of Moss will continue in 2022 based on Singletary averaging a healthy 4.63 yards per carry and Moss averaging an anemic 3.59 in 2021. This yard per carry average should highlight an important fact about Singletary — he’s good.
Want more proof? Singletary was No. 7 in the league in missed tackles forced per attempt, behind only Javonte Williams, Kareem Hunt, Michael Carter, Josh Jacobs, D’Ernest Johnson, and Nick Chubb (I think this also means Cleveland has above-average running back depth).
Will rookie 2nd-round draft pick James Cook and/or free agent signee Duke Johnson cut into Singletary’s receiving load? Probably. But if he continues getting 19 carries per game like he did during that late four-week stretch of 2021 and likely mixes in a few catches here and there, it won’t matter much considering the number of scoring opportunities he will have compared to most running backs.
Something else to consider would be Josh Allen’s rushing workload going forward. I feel like there’s a decent chance it declines as he gets older and in an effort to maintain his health, which would of course benefit Singletary. Considering the Bills’ high-powered offense, Singletary’s likely rushing workload, and his talent, I see Motor (Singletary’s nickname) cruising past bunches of defenders in 2022 – if only my mother had treated Kmart similarly in 1978.
J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)
J.K. Dobbins, who is currently being drafted as RB25, is going to be the most talented (sorry Gus Edwards) lead back in an excellent offense with an outstanding quarterback and a good offensive line.
Lamar Jackson will likely cut into his rushing yardage and touchdown production, but consider Jackson only had 2 rushing touchdowns in 2021. And you can’t ignore the fact that Jackson’s rushing ability also opens up more room for the Ravens running backs, making them more efficient.
The Ravens offense took a step back in 2021 averaging 23 points per game after averaging 27 in 2020. An injury to standout left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, early in 2021, and Dobbins being injured for the entire 2021 season likely had something to do with this drop in production. Additionally, the Ravens drafted highly regarded center Tyler Linderbaum in the 1st round of the 2022 draft and picked up quality right tackle Morgan Moses (pff 71) in free agency to go along with returning high-level guard Kevin Zeitler. Improved health and these transactions should lead to the Ravens offense being more like the 2020 version as opposed to the 2021 version.
Also, consider that Dobbins’ production in his rookie year of 2020 from Weeks 11-17 (he did not play in week 12) when he ran for 495 yards and 7 touchdowns — that’s an average of 83 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per week. That is very good production for a running back being drafted at RB25 — that’s actually good enough production for an RB10.
Need more? Consider Dobbin’s talent level — he ran a 4.41 40-yard dash, had a vertical of 43 inches, and he squatted 700 pounds in high school. His high school coach at the time in La Grange, Texas, said he was a better athlete than 80% of Division I players when he was a 15-year-old sophomore. These are ridiculous numbers that make him a physical freak. Do you know how many NBA players had a 43-inch or better vertical in 2019 (the most recent year I could find this info)? Three players – Hammadou Diallo (44.5), Pat Connaughton (44) and Justin Anderson (43). Three, in the league with the bounciest dudes on the planet.
The point is, J.K. Dobbins has rare athletic talent. Physical talent like this, combined with good blocking and good quarterback play, tends to put up big numbers. He was also a second-round pick after a highly productive college career at Ohio State where he ran for 1403 yards as a 19-year-old true freshman. Not many true freshmen do this at Ohio State where they bring in extremely talented running backs every year and undoubtedly had 3-4 older, talented players at the time who Dobbins nudged to the side when he first stepped on campus.
Lastly, consider Dobbins averaged 6.01 yards per carry in 2020 — again, not many NFL running backs average 6 yards per carry. Unfortunately, Gus Edwards will likely cut into his production some as he and Dobbins basically split carries in 2020, but I’m betting the Ravens will shift more carries as the year goes on to the clearly more talented player, Dobbins. Edwards, by the way, averaged 5.02 yards per carry in 2020, so if Dobbins doesn’t get more like a 70-30 split in carries, the Ravens better be winning consistently (I don’t think they will be considering their lack of pass rushers) or John Harbaugh will be answering some tough questions about playing time.
Unfortunately, Dobbins is not going to be confused with Cooper Kupp anytime soon as he caught exactly 3 passes over the productive six-week stretch mentioned above in 2020, so he’s going to have to make like Derrick Henry and produce consistent touchdowns and yardage to be a useful fantasy player in PPR leagues if his pass-catching rate doesn’t improve (there’s a decent chance it won’t since Jackson just doesn’t throw the ball to running backs much). I’m betting he will produce consistent yardage and touchdowns considering his improved offensive line, his productive quarterback, and his scary talent level.
