In the Weekly Fantasy Unit, there are crimes committed that would shock and appall you. Negative points, underwhelming superstars and outright fantasy football busts. These are the findings of one man on a mission to expose the league’s biggest perpetrators before they strike again.

These are…the FANTASY FILES.

Welcome back to the fantasy files everyone! At long last we’ve finally reached the promised land! Months upon months of careful preparation and a bit of luck have led to this. It’s Week 16 and for most fantasy owners that means we’re in fantasy championship week! Two owners have ascended above the rest and now stand at the precipice of fantasy greatness, but only one can claim the ultimate prize. This week also marks the final edition of the Fantasy Files for the 2018 fantasy season. It’s been a pleasure serving the community this year and we intend to end the year strong. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how last week’s lineup performed:

• Jameis Winston (5 Points)
• Derrick Henry (29 Points)
• Courtland Sutton (4 Points)
• Ryan Griffin (0 Points)
• Carolina D/ST (12 Points)
• Robby Anderson (15 Points)

WHERE I MISSED:

• The late season emergence of Derrick Henry is one of the more shocking developments of this year’s fantasy playoffs. His 4-touchdown performance in Week 14 felt like the peak of an otherwise forgettable season, and because of that I didn’t believe he could possibly do it two weeks in a row. As it turns out I was very wrong to believe that, as Henry’s one-man wrecking crew routine continued in Week 15. He demolished a bottom 10 Giants run defense for 29 points and accounted for the majority of the Titans offense. I can’t recommend him as a high tier 2019 fantasy asset, but his status as a wrecking ball in the playoffs should be monitored and remembered when drafting next season.
• Carolina’s defense showed up in a big way in a last-ditch attempt to save the Panthers season on Monday night. Both teams struggled to move the ball all night long, and Carolina’s defensive line consistently put Drew Brees under pressure. Overall, the unit accounted for 2 sacks, an Interception and a fumble recovery in the contest, but it just wasn’t enough to make up for Carolina’s anemic offense. Luke Keuchly and company showed up to play, and they proved me wrong in a match-up that could have easily devolved into a shootout just weeks ago.
• Robby Anderson defied my expectations as last week’s primary bust suspect to post his second straight double-digit fantasy finish. Behind a season high 11 targets, Anderson acted as both a security blanket and deep threat for Sam Darnold against the Texans pass rush. On the day the young wide-out caught 7 balls for 96 yards and a touchdown while cementing his status as the primary weapon in the Jets’ offense in the absence of Quincy Enunwa. He’ll continue to be a WR3/FLEX play as we head into the fantasy playoffs, but he has more upside than I originally thought.

WHERE I HIT:

• After 3 straight 20+ point finishes Jameis Winston crashed down to earth hard in Week 15 against the Ravens. The notably shaky fantasy QB found himself under duress all day long and his stat line speaks volumes to that. Winston passed for just 157 yards and didn’t throw a touchdown in the contest. His 5-point fantasy total marked his lowest finish of the season, and things won’t get any easier for him in Week 16 as the Bucs are set to match-up against the Dallas Cowboys defense.
• Despite avoiding a match-up with Denzel Ward, Courtland Sutton busted against the Browns on Sunday. The rookie wide-out was battling through a known quad injury for most of the game, but he wasn’t able to produce anything of note for the Broncos or fantasy owners. His 5 catches on 6 targets gave him a decent finish in PPR leagues, but his 42 yards on the day left standard league owners wanting much more. He’s still growing into his forced role as the team’s top receiving option, but he gets to end the year with a juicy match-up against the Raiders 32^nd ranked pass defense.
• Ryan Griffin somehow managed to bust harder than even I expected in Week 15. With the grim outlook of the tight end position as a whole, some owners were forced to use Griffin, and they were unfortunately gifted with a goose egg for their efforts. The big TE mustered just one catch for negative yardage in a game where DeAndre Hopkins scored twice and went for over 150 yards of total offense. Hopkins continued to prove that he’s the Texans entire offense, and everyone else on the team simply falls by the wayside. Griffin was a late season waiver wire reach that just didn’t pan out.

With that out of the way let’s take a look at the bust candidates for Week 16.

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QUARTERBACK:

Marcus Mariota (Tennessee Titans)

An old friend of the Fantasy Files has stopped by to pay us a holiday visit! Though it’s true that Mariota is no stranger to this article, his placement in this week’s edition is partially not even his fault. Honestly, the case for Mariota being a bust this week boils down to one thing: Derrick Henry.

All you have to do to confirm this point is look at Mariota’s current spot in the Titans offense; handing the ball off to Henry and getting out of the way. The Titans have found some late season lightning in a bottle in Henry’s dominance and there’s little doubt that they’ll continue to roll with it. The downside to that for Mariota is obvious, if you’re running the ball on over 50% of your plays your quarterback isn’t exactly going to fill up the stat sheets.

In the past two weeks of Henry’s dominance Mariota’s finished in single digits for fantasy purposes (7 points/4Points) all while passing for a combined 250 yards and an Interception in those contests. The Titans’ game-plan is completely centered around handing the ball off and playing solid defense, and that’s a formula that makes Mariota the odd man out. Add on the fact that the Titans face one of the more talented secondaries in the NFC in the Washington Redskins this week and you can chalk up another slow day for Super Mario in the fantasy finals.

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RUNNING BACK

Lamar Miller/D’Onta Foreman (Houston Texans)

With Lamar Miller currently questionable (but expected to play) in Sunday’s matchup in Philadelphia I opted to include his backfield mate D’Onta Foreman in this week’s column as well.

Miller’s injury designation aside, he’s had a fairly surprising 2^nd half of the year. Dating back to Week 11 he’s been one of the more consistent backs in fantasy football, averaging double digit fantasy totals on a weekly basis (10/27/16/11). However, he now steps into a completely different climate (figuratively and literally) as he gets set to take on a ravenous Eagles front line with the added spark of reignited playoff hopes driving them. While it’s true that Miller’s had four 100+ yard performances on the year, he’s also had (10 Car/10 Yds, 14 Car/49 Yds, 12 Car/21 Yds) performances as well.

He’s exactly the running back you thought you were drafting back in September. Most weeks you’ll kick yourself for starting him, and occasionally he’ll give you a glimmer of hope that he was worth the investment. He won’t be worth it this week at less than 100%. On the other side, Foreman is a dart throw that most fantasy owners should just avoid on principle. If activated this would represent his first NFL action of the 2018 season and there’s no room for worrying about rust in the fantasy finals. Leave both longhorns on the bench in Week 16.

WIDE RECEIVER

Dante Pettis (San Francisco 49ers)

On the topic of surprising ascensions to relevance, we have our wide receiver bust pick of the week Dante Pettis. Pettis wasn’t drafted by owners back in September, he wasn’t projected to be the Niners top receiver and he likely wasn’t started in anyone’s lineup until about a month ago. Yet, despite all of that the 2018 2^nd round pick out of Washington has become all of those things and more down the stretch for both fantasy owners and 49ers QB Nick Mullins.

Pettis has finished with double digit fantasy points in three of his last four contests (12/29/10) against a variety of defenses (TB/SEA/DEN) and buoyed unsuspecting fantasy owners with an impressive 4 touchdowns over that stretch. With an average target share of 7 targets per game the issue with Pettis this week isn’t his workload, it’s the quality of the opponent he’s facing.

This week, fresh off of a divisional upset of the Seahawks, the Niners run right into the Chicago Bears. Calling the Bears intimidating would be a disservice to just how great they’ve been against pass catchers this year. Chicago’s given up the 3^rd fewest points per game (18) this season and have held teams to just over 300 yards of offense per contest consistently, regardless of opponent. The Niners had their big victory last week raining on Seattle’s parade, but this week they get a hard dose of reality. Steer clear of Pettis on Sunday.

TIGHT END

Cameron Brate (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Cameron Brate is a hard one to place on this list due to the well-known, well-worn reputation of tight end play across the fantasy realm this year. Yet he’s here on my Week 16 rundown because of his unpredictability and lack of fantasy production outside of scoring touchdowns. When Brate doesn’t get in the end zone he sandbags fantasy lineups, and he’s sunk far more lineups than he’s lifted in 2018.

From Weeks 7-11 Brate scored a combined 5 fantasy points during a stretch that included matchups with 3 of the worst teams in the league at defending tight ends (CLE/CIN/CAR). He’s had his blow-up games, namely his Week 14 performance (13 Points) against the Saints, but he fell right back to earth with a 0-point performance the next week against Baltimore. Understandably fantasy owners are courting unpredictability on multiple fronts this year with injuries to the position constantly mounting, but I advise against trusting Brate (or his quarterback for that matter) against a talented young Dallas defense that’s only allowing 53 yards per game to tight ends.

The Cowboys got embarrassed in Week 15 by the Colts, and that defense lead by Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander-Esch will be looking for some redemption at Tampa’s expense.

DEFENSE

Cincinnati D/ST

The Battle of Ohio is back up and running this Sunday and for the first time in what feels like forever the Browns are being painted as the better dog in the fight. That praise is well deserved.

After relieving themselves of Hue Jackson the Browns have been on a tear, with Gregg Williams and Baker Mayfield acting as the team’s fiery leaders and Nick Chubb pulling the chariot onward towards victory. Mayfield is rounding into one of the more exciting quarterback prospects in Cleveland history right before our eyes, and he’s led this team past two opponents that few expected them to beat over the past two weeks in the Panthers and Broncos. Chubb is a locomotive, averaging double digit fantasy points every week since Week 9 (15/38/24/13/14/15) and scoring 7 Touchdowns in that span (5 rushing/2 receiving).

The Cincinnati Bengals, in stark contrast to the Browns success, are a broken team. Without their starting QB and top 2 wide receivers the offense runs solely through Joe Mixon and their defense is the consensus worst unit against running backs in the league. I expect Chubb to get a healthy workload in a contest that could quickly become a blow-out. The times they are a changin’ in the state of Ohio and Cleveland’s triumphs are set to continue at the expense of their neighbors to the West.

PRIMARY SUSPECT: (Avoid at all costs)

Matt Breida (San Francisco 49ers)

For our final Primary Suspect I give you Matt Breida. A back that’s filled in for Jerick McKinnon, played through countless injuries and produced at a level that very well could boost him to starting status for another team in the coming years.

However, those injuries pile up, those yards grind a player down and in the fantasy championship, game matchups mean everything. As I stated earlier in the rundown with Pettis, fantasy owners don’t want any part of the 49ers in a Week 16 matchup with the Chicago Bears. Chicago’s given up the 2^nd fewest rushing yards per game (83) and the lowest TD total in the league to the position (5).

The Bears defensive line is a brick wall of humanity, youthful, hungry humanity, and it’s a matchup that will threaten to swallow the 49ers offense whole on Sunday regardless of where this game is played. Breida walks into Week 16 nursing an ankle injury but is expecting to play. I advise fantasy owners to let him to sit on their bench for the biggest game of the year. He’s served you well for most of the year, but this matchup is the kind that could sink your chances in an instant. The same warning goes for his back-up Jeff Wilson Jr. Stay away from the players from the Bay in this championship week.

With that, we’ve reached the end of the 2018 fantasy season! I want to thank Justin and everyone at 5thDownFantasy.com as well as all the readers for allowing me to help you each week this season. It’s been a total blast and it’s given me the opportunity to flex my creative/analytic muscles in a way that’s enhanced my appreciation for football (both real life and fantasy). I hope that you all enjoyed the Fantasy Files and I look forward to returning for the 2019 season along with the rest of the W.F.U. to aid you once again.

Until next year I wish you the best in your fantasy championship matchups!