Notes from a fantasy football perspective on every Week 16 NFL matchup. Also, you can follow Collin on Twitter at @ukfantasyballer.
All stats provided are based on 4 points per passing touchdown and full-point PPR.
REDSKINS (7-7) @ TITANS (9-6)
The Titans are expected to control time of possession, passing yards and rushing yards and have a 56.4% chance of winning.
The line: Titans by 10
Marcus Mariota (TEN) – In Weeks 14 and 15, the Titans decided to let Derrick Henry run loose, and this has affected Mariota’s production. In the last two games he has totaled 250 passing yards, rushed for 24 yards and scored 10 fantasy points. Mariota is not an ideal play but if you have no other option then expect around 15 fantasy points in Week 16.
Derrick Henry (TEN) – No one would have blamed you if you tempered expectations against the Giants after his career day in Week 14, but he had another huge game: 33 carries, 170 yards rushing, 2 TDs for 30.2 fantasy points. He faces the Redskins in Week 16, and they are giving up 24.8 fantasy points per game to running backs. So, if the Titans give him 30-plus carries again then Henry could help you win your championship game.
Dion Lewis (TEN) – He was a complementary piece against the Giants with 44 yards from scrimmage. The game script was against him and his running back partner stole the show. I would expect the same distribution of carries in Week 16 and he should be a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3.
Corey Davis (TEN) – Davis has had two poor weeks in a row, totaling 10.4 fantasy points on 5 catches for 54 yards. His figures could improve against the Redskins as they allow 13.7 yards per reception and give up 170 yards per game and 37.5 fantasy points to the WR position. Davis is a fine start as an WR2 this week.
Vernon Davis (WAS) – Jordan Reed has been ruled out for Week 16. He had been averaging 5 catches and 11.24 fantasy points per game over the last 5 weeks. Davis is a fair replacement. Last week he notched up 9 fantasy points from 4 catches. The trouble here is the Titans are the number one ranked team against the tight end position, giving up a stingy 7.4 fantasy points per game. A risky but potentially decent play if you have too.
RAVENS (8-6) @ CHARGERS (11-3)
The two teams will share time of possession in this matchup, Rivers will throw far more than Jackson and the Ravens will be dominant in running the ball.
The line: Chargers by 4.5
Lamar Jackson (BAL) – Jackson was doing Jackson-like things in Week 15, completing 14 of his 23 attempts for 131 yards with a touchdown. More impressively, he rushed for 95 yards, just 10 yards shy of lead rusher Gus Edwards. Again he fumbled, which was costly and he ended the game with 16.74 fantasy points. This week he faces a stern Chargers D who only give up 14.6 fantasy points to the QB position. More concerning for Jackson is that they are only giving up 13.6 rushing yards to opposing QBs, but that is because QBs are only rushing an average of 3 times per game. Jackson will look to rush more times than the Charges have faced as of yet and the dual threat from Jackson could disrupt the Chargers D. I feel he will be a top 10 QB in Week 16.
Phillip Rivers (LAC) – Rivers completed 26 of his 38 attempts for 313 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs, he didn’t win or lose you your Week 15 matchup. With Melvin Gordon out and Keenan Allen leaving early in the game I’d just be grateful he got you 18 Fantasy points, it could have been a lot worse. He faces a Ravens D who in Week 15 held Jameis Winston to 157 passing yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT for 4 Fantasy points. They are the 4th best against the QB position giving up a stingy 14 fantasy points per game, Rivers will be outside the top 12 QBs this week.
Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon (BAL) – While Jackson is the QB, Edwards is a fine start because of the way the Ravens scheme and call plays. Edwards rushed for 104 yards and bagged a touchdown for 16.40 fantasy points. The Chargers are giving up 25 fantasy points to running backs, so Edwards should be a low-end RB2 this week. If Joe Flacco does come back then Dixon is a consideration.
Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson (LAC) – Gordon is expected back in Week 16, he is a must start, you cannot be cute in your Championship game. Ekeler is currently in concussion protocol so keep an eye on him, he will be a fine flex start if Gordon is fit to play. The interesting player here is J. Jackson, if Gordon and or Ekeler are not ready to start then Jackson is the man. He totaled 85 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown for 17.50 fantasy points BUT the Ravens are the best D against the run. Gordon is a top 10 play and Ekeler and Jackson would be flex options at best.
Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams (LAC) – Allen will be a game-time decision. If he plays, he’s more of a WR2 because of his injury … Tyrell is averaging 10 fantasy points per game due to a couple a huge games earlier in the year. Last week he only caught 50% of his targets for 71 yards. Against this Ravens secondary I’d sit him, but if you have to start him expect flex production with long bomb touchdown upside … When Allen left the field in Week 15 Mike Williams became the man, at 6’4″ and 218 lbs the former 1st round pick was dominant, catching 7 of 9 targets for 76 yards, 2 touchdowns and a two-point conversion to win the game. He will likely face Marlon Humphries, who is only allowing 11.4 fantasy points per game. Still, I expect Mike Williams to be a WR2 against the Ravens.
Antonio Gates (LAC) – If there is one weakness in this Ravens defense it is against tight ends. They average 14 fantasy points a game to the position. If Allen misses this game, Gates will get a bump in target share. He is averaging 1.75 points per target but sit him if you can. Ff he is your only option expect low end flex results.
Sunday Early Afternoon
TEXANS (10-4) @ EAGLES (7-7)
With the Eagles defense playing aggressive and now having everything to play for I think this will be a close game. The Texans have a 58.2% chance of winning.
The line: Houston by 1
Deshaun Watson (HOU) – NFL and fantasy are worlds apart. There are flaws in his game but for fantasy he gets it done time and time again. Against the Jets in Week 15 Watson had 320 yards from scrimmage with a pair of touchdowns for 22.36 fantasy points. If the Texans O-line can protect Watson against Fletcher Cox and co., I feel Watson could have a day against this beaten up secondary of the Eagles. Watson is a fine start this week and could finish as high as the QB5 this week.
Nick Foles (PHI) – In for the injured Carson Wentz, Foles threw for 270 yards but failed to complete a touchdown pass against the Rams. Foles is a fine backup when Wentz is down. If Kelce and his O-line can keep Watt and Clowney at bay then Foles should be able to find his targets down field. Foles will be a QB2 against the Texans in Week 16. Start him if Wentz was your QB and other streaming options are not available.
Lamar Miller (HOU) – I feel for anyone who started a player and they went down injured in Week 15. It happened to me with Allen and I know many of you would have been gutted to see Miller exit the game with an ankle injury. Miller is expected to play but falls to RB2 status since he won’t be 100 percent. The matchup against the Eagles is a good one as they are giving up 25 fantasy points to the RB position and allowed 34 points to Todd Gurley last week.
Josh Adams, Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood (PHI) – Unless Foles could see a wide-open receiver he handed off to the backfield committee in Week 15, and it really was a committee. Early in the first quarter all 3 backs had touches and the way it panned out wasn’t down to design. Smallwood’s lane opened up like the parting of the red sea for one of his touchdowns, which could have been anyone of the 3 backs. I’d stay away from this backfield in Week 16. If you have to start one then this is how I see the breakdown, Adams and Sproles are flex options and Smallwood needs to rely on touchdown upside.
DeAndre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas (HOU) – Hopkins caught 10 of his 11 targets for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns but rolled his ankle in the game against the Jets but he seems in no danger of sitting out. He is obviously a must start against this Eagles secondary… After a slow start Thomas is integrating well with the Texans offense. He had 6 catches last week for 59 yards. Two things to consider here: If Hopkins does end up sitting, then Thomas becomes a fantasy WR2, otherwise no more than a flex option.
Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor (PHI) – Agholor missed out on a huge reception in Week 15 as he and Jeffery went up for the same ball. Foles played it safe in that game. Everything short was given to the backs and Jeffery was relied on for the chunk plays. Jeffery can still be considered a high-end WR 2 in Week 16.
Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert (PHI) – The Texans are inside the top 10 worst defenses against the tight end position, giving up 14.6 fantasy points a game. With Foles wanting to move the chains this week it would make sense for him to lean on both Ertz and Goedert, The Eagles use two-tight end sets often but as a fantasy owner you can only rely on Ertz this week.
PACKERS (5-8-1) @ JETS (4-10)
Time of possession should be evenly split with the Packers having more rushing and receiving yards. The Packers have a 65.5% chance of winning.
The line: Packers by 1
Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Rodgers was a touchdown away from having a fine fantasy day in Week 15 and against the harsh Bears defense, too. I said a couple of weeks ago that Rodgers is a streaming QB at the moment and Week 16 offers a juicy matchup for him. Be concerned, though, as he said that his groin tightened during last week’s game but would like to be out there for the last two games.
Jamaal Williams (GB) – With Aaron Jones leaving due to an MCL sprain Williams was thrust in as the lead back. He rushed for 55 yards, carried for 42 with a touchdown giving him 19.70 fantasy points on the day. The Jets are giving up 22 fantasy points to running backs and as Williams will be the main threat he will see most of those points go his way. Jones will miss in Week 16, so go get Williams, he could help win you your championship.
Elijah McGuire (NYJ) – Last week we said go get McGuire due to Crowell’s injury and with Crowell now on I.R. the backfield is his. He didn’t set the world a light but neither did the backup, so I expect the opportunities to remain with McGuire, the packers are a better matchup this week, they are giving up 4.6 yards per carry and have allowed 13 touchdowns in 14 games to the position. Start McGuire as a low-end RB2.
Devante Adams and Randall Cobb (GB) – Adams had another fine game in Week 15, with 13 targets, 8 catches, 119 yards for 21.90 fantasy points and against the Jets he should have another big game providing Rodgers is fit … Despite being third on the depth chart in targets and having a poor Week 15 I expect Cobb to have a good game this week. Out of the slot he will probably see Buster Skrine, who has spent 55% of his snaps covering the slot, and he is allowing 12 fantasy points per game to his opposing receivers. Cobb is a flex option with upside.
Robby Anderson (NYJ) – Anderson has had two good games these past two weeks. In Week 15 he had 11 targets and came down with 7 of them for 96 yards and a touchdown, which exceeded his weekly points average by 12. There is a chemistry building between him and Sam Darnold. With Quincy Enunwa already ruled out, Anderson is a fine start in Week 16. He could be a high-end WR2.
BILLS (5-9) @ PATRIOTS (9-5)
The Patriots are expected to control time of possession and passing yards while the Bills will rush more during this game. The Pats have a 73.8% chance of winning.
The line: 12.5
Josh Allen (BUF) – Allen started strong in Week 15, completing 8 of 12 attempts, but ended with just 13 from 26, which doesn’t do him justice. On another day he and his receivers would have had huge games, but 204 passing yards, 1 TD and 16 rushing yards still netted him 19.76. He faces the Patriots, who are ranked as one of the 10 worst defenses against the QB position. Allen is a fine start this week and is just outside the top 12 in my rankings but could easily end up a high-end QB1 this week. A fine stream!
Tom Brady (NE) – Brady had a solid game this past weekend. His stat line of 25 from 36, 279 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT will not have ruined your matchup, but you can’t help but feel something is missing. This Bills’ D pressured the Lions last week forcing, Stafford to throw early and the secondary held up. The Bills’ D will cause problems and I’m not sure you can trust Brady if you are looking to clinch your league’s title.
Julian Edelman (NE) – I feel that the Pats are going to run the ball against the Bills, so the option of 2 or 3 receivers being involved is out of the question. Edelman is the only receiver I feel comfortable with this week, even with Josh Gordon out. He had 7 catches from 11 targets for 90 yards bagging him 16 fantasy points. The Bills secondary is 3rd best against the receiver position so it’s not going to be a pass happy day. Edelman a border line WR1 on Sunday.
Robert Foster (BUF) – Zay Jones has flashed in games and Isaiah McKenzie had a career day last week, but the one constant that has been a shining light for the Bills is Robert Foster. Allen has a big arm and he looks comfortable now. He targeted Foster 5 times and the wideout snagged 4 of them for 108 yards and a touchdown. In the past 4 weeks he has scored big 3 times and last week’s 20.80 fantasy points was his highest of the season. There is no reason why that will not continue, as the Pats are giving up 36 fantasy points per game to the receiver position. If we casually say 16 points between Jones and McKenzie then that leaves enough on the table for Foster. But keep in mind that he will see Stephon Gilmore, who is the Pats best cornerback.
Rob Gronkowski (NE) – We all thought Gronk had finally arrived last week but he didn’t come through for you again with his 2 receptions for 4.10 fantasy points. The Pats will run the ball, plus the Bills are ranked 2nd against the TE position, so I’d stay away from him myself.
BENGALS (6-8) @ BROWNS (6-7-1)
Cleveland should edge time of possession and dominate pass yards with the Bengals controlling the rushing yards. The Browns have a 63% change of winning.
The line: Browns by 7
Baker Mayfield (CLE) – From a fantasy prospective, Mayfield has had three very good games followed by three poor ones. He only threw for 188 yards but managed 2 touchdowns for 12.12 fantasy points. Worryingly, he now has 4 INTs in the past 3 games. Mayfield has a favorable matchup this week against the Bengals, who are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to the QB position, so Mayfield has a chance to bounce back. I believe he could end up a top 8 QB this week.
Joe Mixon (CIN) – Mixon had a career day this past week, carrying 27 times for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns, giving him 27 fantasy points. He scored 25 points the week before, too. He is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and this should continue as the Browns D is allowing 4.7 yards per carry.
Nick Chubb (CLE) – This could be a battle of the running backs. With both passing games stuttering for a variety of reasons, Mixon and Chubb could be the difference here. Chubb’s last 4 games netted him 73.30 fantasy points and he faces the Bengals, who are the worst against the run, giving up 32 fantasy points per game and 20 touchdowns on the year.
Jarvis Landry (CLE) – While Callaway and Higgins can have big games any given week, I feel that if anyone is to have one in Week 16 it will be Landry. Expect most of the game to be run-first, but Landry has had good production in recent weeks and is typically good for WR2 production even in situations that are not ideal.
David Njoku (CLE) – I was hoping that 2018 was Njoku’s year in fantasy. He has had some big games but it’s all too inconsistent. The past 3 games have been poor, but my stats lead me to believe he will have a day. Every time he has had 4 catches or more he has been a TE1 and the Bengals have allowed 4.9 receptions to the tight end position for 11 yards per reception. He is only targeted on 12.5% of end zone opportunities, which should be a lot higher, but I like him as a TE1 this week.
VIKINGS (7-5-1) @ LIONS (5-9)
The Vikings will control both time of possession and rushing yards and the Lions will see more passing yards. The Vikings have a 62.3% chance of winning.
The line: Vikings by 5.5
Kirk Cousins (MIN) – It was a very strange week in fantasy. Cousins scored 15 points and was still in the top 10 of QBs for Week 15. He only attempted 21 passes but completed 14 with touchdowns, so he was efficient with those passes. He will face the Lions in Week 16, who are allowing 233 yards a game, 12 yards per reception and 27 touchdowns to the QB position. Cousins should do a lot better in Week 16, but remember with the changes in the coaching ranks they want to use Dalvin Cook much more. Cousins should score between 15 and 20 fantasy points this weekend.
Dalvin Cook (MIN) – With the OC changes coming in to this game it was obvious that the Vikings wanted to run the ball more. They have a stud running back and the only question was when will the O-line open lanes for him? Cook carried 19 times for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns and had a reception for 27 yards. He had a monster game and notched up a tidy 29.30 Fantasy points. Latavius Murray also had 15 carries so it’s clear that this is the approach moving forward.
Zach Zenner and Theo Riddick (DET) – Zenner appears to have wrestled the short-yardage work away from the underperforming Blount. Riddick looked explosive last week despite not ending up having much of an impact on the stat sheets. With Kerryon Johnson placed on I.R., I feel that Zenner and Riddick are both flex options with Zenner having touchdown upside.
Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs (MIN) – In the past 6 games the target share has swung from Thielen to Diggs, who was targeted 7 times — he caught 4 passes for 49 yards and a touchdown while Thielen only had 2 targets and accumulated just 3.9 fantasy points. The Vikings will run the ball as many times as they can. I know you won’t, but it could be argued that Thielen is a sit this week. Diggs is an WR1.
Kenny Golladay (DET) – Golladay had a day last Sunday, catching 7 of his 8 targets for 146 yards, which was roughly ¾ of Stafford’s total passing yards. The receptions were not gimmies either, he had to go up and make plays. He looked fantastic but will face a stern Vikings defense that is only giving up 124 yards in total to wide receivers per game and just 9 touchdowns on the year. He is a mid-range WR 2 this week with big play upside.
BUCCANEERS (5-9) @ COWBOYS (8-6)
Dallas will dominate time of possession, passing and rushing yards. They also have 60% chance of winning against the Bucs this week.
The line: Cowboys by 7
Jameis Winston (TB) – Winston has been a stream dream all year. I know because I have streamed between him and Fitzpatrick all season. I let him go in Week 15 due to his brutal matchup against the Ravens. He completed 13 of his 25 attempts for 157 yards, no TDs and an INT and managed just 4.28 fantasy points. Winston will be outside of the top 15 QBs this week but if you have been streaming him all year then he may be one of your only options.
Dak Prescott (DAL) – Prescott is not one to throw it down the field. Time and time again he has men open and yet fails to find the target. He completed 63% of his passes against the Colts but for 5.3 yards per attempt. Still, you can trust him in Week 16 as a streaming option because of the matchup.
Payton Barber (TB) – Barber’s stock is rising for next year. He is currently the RB28. Last week he had 19 carries, 85 yards and a touchdown for 16.90 fantasy points. The Cowboys D-line and linebacker core should prove to be too strong for him to be an RB1, but he should be a low-end flex. Over the past 5 games he has scored 4 touchdowns.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – Elliott rushed 18 times against the Colts for 87 yards and pulled in 7 of Prescott’s passes for 41 yards, ending the day with 17.80 fantasy points. His matchup looks very juicy in Week 16, as the Bucs are allowing 46 receiving yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush to opposing running backs.
Mike Evans and Adam Humphries (TB) – Evans led the team in targets last week with 9, pulling in 4 for 121 yards. He will see a lot of Byron Jones, who has locked down most receivers this season. I expect Evans to have a slightly less productive week than his average … Humphries has been the go-to guy out of this receiver core recently, but the Ravens had his number last week. I still like him as a high-end flex with touchdown upside.
Amari Cooper (DAL) – The Cowboys were completely shut out by the Colts in Week 15, and I like Cooper to bounce back in a big way this week. Tampa’s top cornerback is Brent Grimes, and he is only targeted on 17%. But when targeted he is allowing 12.8 yards per reception and allows a catch rate of 73.5%, so Cooper should be given the space he needs to catch and then gain yards after the catch. Put Cooper in your top 10 this week.
Cameron Brate (TB) – Winston loves to target the tight end position, but the Ravens shut Brate down last week. The Cowboys are ranked as the 7th worst against the position and give up 15 points per game but in their last two games against Ertz and Ebron they have given up just 46 yards in total. Brate should be a low-end TE1 this week.
FALCONS (5-9) @ PANTHERS (6-8)
The Falcons will see more of the possession and control the air game while the Panthers will have more rushing yards. The Panthers have a 55.9% chance of winning.
The line: 2.5
Matt Ryan (ATL) – Ryan had 25 fantasy points in Week 15 but he could have had more had his receivers done their jobs. He faces the Panthers D who despite looking slightly rejuvenated against the Saints are still among the 10 worst defenses against the QB position. Ryan should get around 20 points this week but will finish outside the top 12 in QB rankings, I believe.
Tevin Coleman (ATL) – Coleman looked very good against the Cardinals. He showed great burst on two of his long runs and a very impressive jump cut to bounce outside for his 43-yard touchdown run. With Ito Smith being injured he should see a larger work load but faces a strong run D in Carolina, who on the ground give up 109 yards a game but have held passing catching backs to 30 yards a game and only 4 touchdowns on the year. Coleman is projected to be a low to mid-range RB2.
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – McCaffrey had 53 yards rushing and 67 receiving, which has become the standard for him this season. He also thought it would be fun to throw in a 50-yard touchdown pass to spice things up. He ended the day on 26 fantasy points.
Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (ATL) – Jones caught 6 of his 8 targets against the Cardinals for 82 yards and a touchdown, he is averaging 20.31 fantasy points per game this year and he gave you that in Week 15. He will be in the top 5 this week. Calvin Ridley saw one less target than Jones but he is only averaging 9.9 yards per reception. Against the Panthers I feel he will be a low end WR 2 / high end WR 3 this week.
D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel (CAR) – Moore caught 2 of his 3 targets for 12 yards and rushed for 22 yards but lost a fumble at the end of that run. Samuel has given you consistent low-end WR2 numbers recently but only caught one pass and rushed twice giving him just 3.5 fantasy points last week against a weak Saints secondary. I have these two as high-end WR3s this Week — 7 targets between the two of them isn’t enough.
Austin Hooper (ATL) – Hooper had a quiet game against the Cards but I feel he can be a top 12 tight end against the Panthers who are giving up 11 yards per reception, 15 fantasy points per game and 9 total touchdowns to the tight end position.
JAGUARS (4-10) @ DOLPHINS (7-7)
The Dolphins will share time of possession but dominate the passing and rushing yards, they also have a 51.6% of winning.
The line: Dolphins by 4
Leonard Fournette (JAC) – Fournette has posted two games in a row now with less than 10 fantasy points. He has a foot injury and the rookie Dave Williams is getting more looks. Fournette is hard to trust in your fantasy championship game.
Kenyon Drake and Kalen Ballage (MIA) – You would think that Drake would take over a heavier work load as Frank Gore is out for the rest of the season. But it’s that time of year to see what you have in draft picks that haven’t featured much. Ballage took over and had 12 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown. I have them both as unpredictable RB3s this week, both risky but with upside.
GIANTS (5-9) @ COLTS (8-6)
The time of possession should be equally shared while the Giants will air it out and the Colts will focus more on their rushing game. The Colts have a 58.8% chance of winning.
The line: Colts by 9
Andrew Luck (IND) – Luck is averaging 20.23 fantasy points per game and has 35 touchdowns on the season. But there’s a chance Luck will not need to do much against the Giants. Against the Cowboys Luck had 192 passing yards, no touchdowns and only 9.68 fantasy points all because the run game and the defense played out of their minds. If you have him, you have to start him but be ready to be let down.
Marlon Mack (IND) – Having Kelly back at Center gave this O-line a big boost and lanes where wide open for Mack. The Giants can’t defend the run and Mack will take full advantage. I have Mack as an RB1 this week, which is higher than most, but I really liked what I saw in Week 15.
Saquon Barkley (NYG) – He had his first poor game of the year last week, and Zeke found is hard going against the Colts D last week, so it won’t be easy for Barkley. But he is always a high-end RB1.
T.Y. Hilton (IND) – Hilton led the team in targets with 8 and caught 5 for 85 yards. The Giants are in the upper tier for defending WRs this year but when needed Hilton will get open and Luck will find him. Start him and expect low-end WR1 figures from him.
Eric Ebron (IND) – Ebron will be looking to forget last week’s matchup with the Cowboys. The Giants are giving up 11 yards per attempt, 56 yards and 12 fantasy points to the tight end position, so start him with confidence.
Evan Engram (NYG) – As I said last week, when Odell Beckham is not fit you can fire up Engram and he had 12 targets and 8 catches for 75 yards (15.50 fantasy points). The Colts have only given up 3 touchdowns to the tight end spot but have allowed an average of 72 yards per game at a rate of 11.55 yards per attempt and 14.4 fantasy points a game. Fire up Engram with confidence.
Sunday Late Afternoon
BEARS (10-4) @ 49ERS (4-10)
The Bears will control the clock and rushing yards with the 49ers being forced to throw. The Bears have a 69% chance of winning.
The line: Bears by 4
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) – Trubisky completed 20 of his 28 attempts last week for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushed for 16 yards to give him a healthy 19.00 points, good for QB5. He faces a 49ers side who are currently allowing 249 passing yards and 2 touchdowns a game. The Chicago D will help the offense dominate time of possession giving, Trubisky even more opportunity. I see him as a low-end QB1 this week.
Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard (CHI) – The 49ers are allowing 4 yards per carry on the ground but 7.2 to pass catching backs. Cohen is the ideal weapon to penetrate this 49ers defense and the Bears love to use him out of the back field and in the slot. Cohen is an RB 1 this week… Howard will get his opportunities too and you can start him as a low-end RB2.
Allen Robinson (CHI) – Teams are throwing less than 20 times against the 49ers, who give up nearly 14 yards per reception and have allowed 22 touchdowns to the position. Someone has to be an outlet for Trubisky. Miller has not had a catch in two games and Gabriel caught all 3 of his targets but the production will not help win in Week 16. Robinson is the lead receiver and will give the Bears the best opportunity to move the chains in the passing game. Robinson will be a WR2 this week.
Donte Pettis (SF) – Pettis has won the lead role as a rookie, something you do not often see in the NFL. He pulled in all 5 of his targets in Week 15, he had 83 yards for 13.30 fantasy points. If there is one way to beat the Bears it will be through the air, they are giving up 38 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Pettis will be a WR3 this week — a good flex option with genuine touchdown upside.
Trey Burton (CHI) – Burton is an athletic miss match and I am a little disappointed he hasn’t been used more. Last week Burton was targeted 7 times and had 4 receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown. Burton is a top 10 tight end this week.
George Kittle (SF) – Kittle had the target volume for a big game but he only had 3 receptions for 51 yards last week. The Bears have only allowed 5 touchdowns and 54 receptions all year to the tight end position, but I feel that the volume in targets Kittle will receive will take him over and above what anyone else has done to the Bears this year.
RAMS (11-3) @ CARDINALS (3-11)
The Chargers will see more possessions and have more passing yards while the Ravens will control the rushing yards. The Charges have a 56.3% chance of winning.
The line: 4.5
Jared Goff (LAR) – Goff completed 35 of his 54 pass attempts for 359 yards, no touchdowns and 2 INTs. Since Goff returned from his BYE week he has played 3 games and has scored a total of 18.44 fantasy points. The Cardinals are only giving up 15 fantasy points to the QB position. Can you trust Goff this week? Streaming options like Josh Allen will likely get you more points in Week 16 but if Goff is your guy then expect low-end production.
Josh Rosen (ARI) – This is not fantasy analysis for Week 16 but just a quick note. Rosen is developing every week. When he has time, he can make NFL passes. If the Cardinals sort their O-line in 2019 draft expect good things from Rosen and David Johnson next season.
Todd Gurley (LAR) – Gurley rushed for 48 yards and 2 touchdowns and added 76 yards from 10 receptions to give him 34.40 fantasy points. The Cardinals are a team you can run on. They are the 4th worst against the RB position, they are giving up 169 yards per game, 19 touchdowns on the year and allow 30 fantasy points a game to running backs. Be mindful that Gurley has a knee issue, so far they are playing it down and he did return to the game in Week 15, but there was a noticeable limp.
David Johnson (ARI) – Johnson rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown while adding 68 yards in receptions. While the O-line is busted Johnson should be used more outside and as a receiver. The Rams have only given up 14 touchdowns on the year but are allowing 134 yards from scrimmage and 24 fantasy points per game to the RB position. Johnson will be a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2 this week.
Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds (LAR) – With Goff not throwing down field a great deal this has affected Cooks’ and Woods’ fantasy production to some degree, but Goff had 53 passing attempts last week, so opportunity is there for sure. The Cardinals and Patrick Peterson have only allowed 14 touchdowns on the year and 151 yards to opposing receiver groups.
STEELERS (8-5-1) @ SAINTS (12-2)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – Big Ben attempted 34 and completed 22 passes to 8 different receivers against the Patriots last week. He had 325 yards and 2 touchdowns for 13.10 fantasy points. He either needed 50 more yards or another touchdown for you to have been happy with him last week. Good news: In Week 16 he will make you a happy fantasy owner. The Saints are allowing 280 passing yards per game and 30 touchdowns on the year to the QB position.
Drew Brees (NO) – This season, Brees has either won you your week or put you in a lot of trouble. In 6 of his matchups he has scored less than 18 fantasy points, and in 4 of those games he has scored less than 10 fantasy points. Last week was the worst of the bunch: 203 yards, no touchdowns for 5.92 fantasy points. He will need a big performance against the Steelers to keep up. Experts have him as a top 5 QB1 for Week 16. But I’ve watched his past 3 games and I’m not convinced. If you have him you will start him, but you’ve been warned.
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram (NO) – Kamara is situation proof, if you have him play him. Mark Ingram, however, has not done very well for the past 4 weeks. He had 12 carries last week for 63 yards and added 11 yards in receiving for 9.40 fantasy points. The Steelers are strong against the run, giving up only 20 fantasy points to running backs per game. I feel that Ingram will be a low-end RB 2 this week.
James Conner and Jaylen Samuels (PIT) – Conner’s status for Sunday’s matchup is still undecided, but it’s not looking promising. Samuels rushed 19 times last week for 142 yards, 2 targets, 2 receptions for an additional 30 yards. He had a fine game but in Week 16 he faces a Saints defense that is 4th best against the position. They are allowing less than 100 yards from scrimmage and only 10 touchdowns on the year to running backs. This is partly because teams can throw on them all day long, I feel that Samuels will be game-scripted out slightly and will be a flex option this week.
Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) – There is not a lot that needs to be said here, if you have them play them. Not only are these two excellent receivers but the Saints are dead last against the position. They are giving up a massive 203 yards per game, nearly 14 yards per reception and 17 touchdowns on this year.
Michael Thomas (NO) – Thomas has stuttered like Brees has as of late. In the past 4 weeks he has accumulated just 49.5 fantasy points with no touchdowns. The Steelers give up a touchdown a game and 36 fantasy points to the WR position, so the chance for Thomas to be a WR1 is there. Can he and Brees hook up to make it happen? I think so.
Vance McDonald (PIT) – It is clear to see that McDonald and Roethlisberger have a connection, McDonald has an average of 3.8 receptions per game from Big Ben and is averaging 9.25 fantasy points on the year. The Saints are 5th best against the position, only allowing 9.2 fantasy points per game but that’s what McDonald has been giving you and he is the TE10 on the year, so I’d be happy with that. Set him and feel confident.
CHIEFS (11-3) @ SEAHAWKS (8-6)
The time of possession will be equal, the Chiefs will dominate the passing game while the Seahawks will focus on controlling the game from the ground. The Chiefs have a 59.3% chance of winning.
The line: The Chiefs by 2.5
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Mahomes has faced 2 very tough tests over the past 2 weeks and has come through with flying colours. He faces another test in the way of Seattle Seahawks this week. The Seahawks have a allowed an average of 269 yards per game but have only given up 1.5 touchdowns a game, which has meant they only give up 15.8 fantasy points. This is all irrelevant. If you have Mahomes you will start him.
Russell Wilson (SEA) – Wilson completed 23 of 31 pass attempts last week for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns for 18 fantasy points. Teams are throwing on the Chiefs mainly to keep up with Mahomes’ scoring drives and only the Browns have been thrown on more times this year. Opposing QBs are getting an average of 304 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game. Wilson is a fine start this week, a high-end QB1.
Damien Williams (KC) – It just goes to show that opportunity is greater than ability sometimes. Williams managed 30.30 fantasy points last week, he had 49 yards rushing, 74 yards receiving and 2 TDs. He will face a Seattle D that is allowing an average of 144 rushing yards and 1 touchdown a game. As Williams is the primary back he will benefit from this and could easily finish as an RB 1.
Chris Carson (SEA) – In the last two games Carson has rushed 22 times in each game. Last week he wasn’t tackled for a single loss of yards and managed a touchdown to give him 26.80 fantasy points. The Seahawks want to run the ball often and against the Chiefs this is a match made in heaven for Carson. From scrimmage the Chiefs give up 172 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game to the running back position, which is equating to 31.2 fantasy points. Carson will be a great start this week.
Tyreek Hill (KC) – Hill has had 2 poor games in 3 weeks but more often than not he has come through for you in a big way. He faces the Seahawks secondary that most thought would be shot to bits this year but it’s been patched up and working well. If you have Hill you will start him but expect low end WR 1 figures rather than his 30 plus point games.
Doug Baldwin (SEA) – He looked like the old Baldwin against SF, catching four passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns.The Seahawks do have a run-first mentality, but I still see Baldwin as a high-end WR2 this week with touchdown upside.
Travis Kelce (KC) – Kelce is the TE1 on the year. Regardless of how the Seahawks have fared against tight ends this year, Kelce will get his.
BRONCOS (6-8) @ RAIDERS (3-11)
The Broncos will dominate the clock and rushing yards and they have a 79% chance of winning.
The line: Broncos by 2.5
Phillip Lindsay (DEN) – Lindsay has set the NFL a light as an undrafted rookie. Over the past 2 weeks his production as slowed slightly but then it is hard to maintain 93 yards from scrimmage per game. He has been sensational overall, and I do expect him to get back on track this week. He faces the Raiders, who are allowing 159 yards from scrimmage and just over one touchdown a game to the running back position, so have no doubts that Lindsay is an RB1 again this week.
Doug Martin (OAK) – Martin had 3 games where he played better than expected but last week he simmered back down to his typical low-end flex production. The Broncos D is allowing 25 points to the running back position but I only have Martin as a flex option this week, so if he is the best option for your flex then go ahead and start him.
DaeSean Hamilton (DEN) – Wow, out of 6 receivers across this game I am not excited about any of them but Hamilton does pose the most upside. The rookie has had 2 starts in the past 2 weeks and has been targeted 21 times for 14 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD and 29.3 fantasy points. So, he could a flex option, but the Raiders are surprisingly good against the WR position. They are only allowing 137 yards per game to wide receivers and I believe that they have not allowed a single receiver to have a 100 yards game this year. If you want upside then start Hamilton.
Jared Cook (OAK) – Cook has been solid for you all year. The Broncos are not among the best at defending the tight end position, they have given up an average of 71 yards, 0.5 touchdowns, 14 yards per reception and 14.7 fantasy points per game. Start Cook!