It’s kind of like the two guys who go camping and are awakened in the middle of the night by a large bear sniffing around their tent. Ricky says, “let’s get the heck out of here and make a run for it!” Bobby casually starts putting on his tennis shoes. Ricky excitedly asks him what in the world he’s doing: “We gotta run away from the bear!” Bobby replies: “I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just gotta outrun you”. 

Similarly, in fantasy football, you don’t always have to make the perfect pick, but you must avoid the worst-case scenarios. Fortunately, in fantasy football that worst-case might only be a first-round pick that underperforms as opposed to camping amongst bears. Having said that, we don’t want underperforming first-round picks. 

Take a look at all of the 2021 first-round picks that did not produce accordingly — Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb. Injuries and being a part of underwhelming offenses would cause fantasy players to draft someone else if given another chance. This is not a zero-running back article (it might not be that far from one), but notice what position all of these guys play. 

Now go back further to 2020 and look at the underwhelming first-round picks — Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders, and Joe Mixon. Again, injuries and ineffective offenses made all of these guys poor first-round picks in 2020 (almost all running backs). This happens every year with a large number of bad picks at the top of drafts. The question is who are these bad picks to avoid in 2022? 

4 players to avoid in the first round

1. Derrick Henry (RB, TEN) 

I have been very high on Derrick Henry every year of his career up until now. I was either ahead of the curve, or maybe just very wrong early in his career because I drafted him three of his first four years in the league. 

Unfortunately, his first two years in the league were not very good, and I didn’t get the dominant player I was hoping for. Eventually, the talent of a 6’4” 250-pound solid steel sprinter took over and he has dominated the NFL for the last four years when healthy. 

This year will be different, as I will not be drafting Henry near his current ADP. Henry has now carried the ball 1401 times in his career, in addition to the foot injury that caused him to miss the second half of 2021. Yes, Henry was awesome in 2021 when healthy (early), and he could very well do the same in 2022 — I just think he is too risky of a pick now with this history along with his age of 28. 

Even more concerning than his heavy usage is the looks of the Titans’ offense this year. They lost quality offensive linemen Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry in free agency and their apparent replacements Aaron Brewer (508 snaps and PFF grade of 56) and Dillon Radunz (124 snaps and PFF grade of 50) appear to be both inexperienced and ineffective. 

Additionally, their best offensive lineman, Taylor Lewan, appears to be descending in performance as he is a year older, has missed 19 games combined over the last 3 years, and was not as good last year (PFF grade of 71) as he was earlier in his career. If Lewan gets hurt again this year (totally possible) his backup appears to be someone named Nicholas Petit-Frere. At 6’5” 315 pounds, Nicholas is not petite, but he has exactly zero NFL snaps on his resume as he was a 2022 3rd rounder out of Ohio State. This does not inspire confidence.

To make matters worse, the Titans traded their best receiver in A.J. Brown this offseason and drafted Treylon Burks with the acquired pick. While Burks might become a great player in the NFL, in spite of concerning reports of him being overweight in OTAs, this is very likely a major downgrade for the Titans’ offense because Brown was already a great NFL player. 

Without Brown to keep many drives alive, this will likely mean fewer goal line opportunities for Henry, which could severely limit his fantasy production. Henry’s age and heavy usage, along with the declining talent around him, make him a very risky first-round draft choice, and one that I will not be making. 

2. Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR) 

I don’t dislike Christian McCaffrey as much as Henry in 2022, because Carolina has significantly upgraded its offensive line. McCaffrey also has about half the career usage as Henry, totaling 781 carries. 

It’s not a lack of talent either, because McCaffrey has proven he is a great NFL back when healthy. He could still be a league winner if healthy, especially in a PPR league, because of his superior pass-catching ability. 

The issue I have is, of course, injuries. He has only played in 10 games in the last two years combined, missing time with hamstring (non-contact), ankle, and shoulder injuries. I would rather take a running back with less injury history (Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler) or a high-level receiver (Cooper Kupp, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson) who is less likely to get hurt and is, therefore, a safer pick. 

I hope McCaffrey stays healthy this year — these players work so incredibly hard year-round that it seems very unfair not to be able to showcase their talents. If he does, he will likely be the king of fantasy football because he has the highest ceiling in all of fantasy football, but his injury history simply makes him too big of a risk for me in the first round. 

3. Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN) 

Dalvin Cook also has a significant injury history along with heavy usage (1018 career carries). He missed 4 games in 2021, and 2 each in 2019 and 2020. While these years didn’t completely kill his value, he also missed 5 games in 2018 and 12 in 2017. This is what we call a pattern. 

Another concerning fact about Cook was his 2021 production. While Cook was great in 2019 and 2020 averaging, 1346 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns, he only rushed for 1159 and 6 touchdowns in 2021. He played one less game in 2021 (13) than in 2019 and 2020, but that is still a major drop, especially in the touchdown department. 

The Vikings’ scoring per game was only down a little (2 pts/game) in 2021. So why did Cook’s touchdown production drop so much in 2021? Probably because the Vikings receivers (Jefferson 10 TDs, Thielen 10 TDs, and Osborn 7 TDs) were so darned good and have become the focus of this offense. 

The Vikings also have a very capable backup for Cook in Alexander Mattison, who will continue cutting into Cook’s production some. Bottom line: a pattern of injuries and only 6 touchdowns in 2021 does not scream first-round draft pick. 

4) Davante Adams (WR, LVR)

I told you this wasn’t a zero running back article (I think), and Davante Adams proves it. I don’t like the fact that Adams is no longer playing with Aaron Rodgers, his longtime quarterback with whom he has great chemistry developed over eight years playing together. 

I know Adams and Derek Carr were college teammates at Fresno State for two years, but Carr is no Rodgers:  a sure-fire first-ballot hall of fame player who has averaged 32 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions per year since becoming Green Bay’sfull-time starter, and this included a couple of years where he missed most of the year with injuries. Meanwhile, Carr threw 23 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2021 — not exactly hall of fame numbers. 

Yes, Adams may improve those numbers for Carr, but I’m not so sure when considering the Raiders’ offensive line. According to PFF, the Raiders will have the 29th best offensive line in 2022. Left tackle Kolton Miller has proven to be effective, but the other four spots average a PFF grade of 55, with the highest being 64 for center Andre James. 

This is all a major red flag for the Raiders’ offense. It won’t matter if Adams is wide open 30 yards down the field if Carr is getting whacked before he can get the ball out. And Carr isn’t exactly Lamar Jackson escaping pressure, and, let’s be honest, he’s not exactly 38-year-old Aaron Rodgers escaping pressure either.

I see major problems for the Raiders being able to consistently move the ball with this offensive line. I actually like Hunter Renfrow at his ADP better than Adams at his because he will be running more short routes that require less protection time. New Raiders coach Josh McDaniels should like getting Renfrow the ball considering his history with the likes of slot receivers Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola.

As far as Adams is concerned, I’m afraid he’s going to greatly miss Rodgers and a competent offensive line, and you may be running from the bear barefoot if you draft him.