A big key to fantasy football success is picking guys who are part of good offenses, which in my opinion is largely dependent on the offensive line. It sounds obvious to pick guys on good offenses, but people oftentimes will use a first-round draft pick on guys in bad offenses, and this is very risky.
First-round picks in 2021 such as Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, and Antonio Gibson were all hurt to some degree by being a part of bad offenses. When offenses don’t consistently move the ball, yardage numbers will be down, as well as — even more importantly — touchdown opportunities (I know, thanks “Captain Obvious”).
However, fantasy owners spend high draft picks on guys in crappy offenses every year, so a big key to winning your fantasy league is locating those offenses that are going to make a big jump before it actually happens.
Before we get to 2022, let’s look back at a few examples of offensive players that made big jumps in fantasy value when their offensive lines were significantly upgraded.
Take a look at Todd Gurley in his rookie year of 2015 when he ran for 1106 yards, and 10 touchdowns at 5.2 YPC — he looked like a future star. His second season rolled around when the offensive line took big steps backward, and he ran for 885 yards, and 6 touchdowns at 3.8 YPC. I remember seeing 2016 game footage of him just being blasted as he took handoffs behind the line of scrimmage. He looked terrible, but the fact is, he was not terrible. He was the same explosive, shifty, powerful runner he was the previous year. He just looked so bad because his offensive line was atrocious (Case Keenum and Jared Goff didn’t help, either).
Now, here’s the key. After the 2017 season, the Rams went out and added Hall of Fame left tackle Andrew Whitworth and a solid center in John Sullivan. These additions, along with new head coach Sean McVay, led to Gurley dominating the NFL in 2017 and 2018, rushing for a combined 2600 yards and 30 touchdowns — not to mention a massive receiving workload. Many people who drafted Gurley in the 2nd round in 2017 ended up winning their leagues by getting the fantasy MVP in the second round. If you spend a little time finding those offenses that have made significant additions to the line, you have a chance to find those crucial break-out players that’ll end up winning leagues.
Let’s also consider Dalvin Cook in 2019. Cook had suffered through two injury-plagued seasons in 2017-18 to start his career when he rushed for a combined 900 yards and 4 touchdowns. After the 2018 season, the Vikings went out and signed a solid guard in Jake Kline and drafted Garrett Bradbury in the first round. These transactions, along with Cook’s improved health, and Gary Kubiak’s running strategy led to a breakout in 2019 where he rushed for 1100 yards and 13 touchdowns. Not bad for a fantasy 2nd-round draft pick.
Again, getting a performance like this in the second round is a league-winner. Gurley and Cook also highlight the importance of betting on talents. Both of these guys are big, fast, elusive beasts who are physically a notch above almost all NFL running backs. All things being equal, talent typically wins out in the NFL.
Now, who are the breakouts going to be in 2022 based largely on offensive line and, therefore, overall offensive improvement?
Top 5 breakout NFL offenses in 2022
1) New York Giants
I especially like Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones to perform better than their current preseason rankings and ADPs. The Giants drafted Evan Neal with the 7th pick in the 2022 draft. This is huge, not only because Neal is 6’7” and 350 pounds, but also because he is a freak athlete (Google “Evan Neal box jump” if you don’t believe me). People that large are not supposed to be able to do that. He was very productive playing at the highest level in college at Alabama and some scouts had him ranked as the #1 overall prospect in the draft. Suffice it to say, there is a very good chance Evan Neal will improve the Giants offensive line.
Now, add in the fact that they went out and added guard Mark Glowinski, a good run blocker, as well as additional depth in center Jon Feliciano and guard Jamil Douglas. Feliciano and Douglas both came from Buffalo, by the way, so they are familiar with new head coach Brian Daboll’s system.
In addition, the Giants drafted Joshua Ezeudu high in the 3rd round of the draft. That is likely three new offensive line starters, maybe four, in one off-season, including at least two likely high-quality starters in Neal and Glowinski. And these guys are being added to a high-quality left tackle in returner Andrew Thomas.
The Giants offensive line was terrible in 2021 (#30 overall ranking according to PFF), but this many quality additions scream major offensive improvement. Consider also that new head coach Brian Daboll has no doubt played a huge role in Josh Allen’s development over the last couple of years in Buffalo, including quarterback rushing production being a big part of the offense. I could see plus athlete Daniel Jones making a big jump in 2022 because of more designed quarterback runs along with greatly improved blocking. Jones has not been horrible in his previous three years (he hasn’t been great, I know) considering the poor line play in front of him.
Speaking of the previous three years, Jones has a fair amount of experience under his belt already. He’s not a rookie, which is invaluable. He also has plenty of weapons in Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepherd, Darius Slayton, and Kadarious Toney to support a big uptick in passing yardage. I actually don’t love his receivers fantasy-wise because it just seems to be too many mouths to feed, but this doesn’t hurt Jones’ value. If I had to pick one of the receivers late it would probably be Toney because of his freakish athletic ability, and you might be able to get him later than the others because of his limited track record.
As mentioned earlier, I also like physical freaks to dominate, all things being equal, and Saquon Barkley fits that bill similarly to Dalvin Cook. It is not a stretch at all to forecast Barkley having another breakout year as he did in 2018 in his rookie year with 1300 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns. He’s already shown he can do it if healthy and in a competent offense. Barkley’s injury problems the last couple of years make him too risky of a pick for me in the 1st or most of the 2nd round, but I would jump all over him if he’s available in the 3rd.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers focused on improving their offensive line this offseason, going out and adding guard James Daniels in free agency. Daniels is not a superstar lineman, but he is a good, solid player, posting a PFF grade of 71 in 2021. Similarly, the Steelers signed another solid blocker in center Mason Cole, a free agent from the Vikings who graded at 70 according to PFF. These are two good additions to an ineffective line that ranked #26 overall according to PFF for the 2021 season. Additionally, left tackle Dan Moore will be in his second season in 2022 so he should be on the upswing in terms of his career projection. Returnees Kevin Dotson and Chukwuma Okorafor are not stars, but they are solid, young pros who both graded out at 64 per PFF and should also be on the upswing.
This unit strikes me as showing pretty drastic improvement in 2022. Who does this benefit? Najee Harris already had an excellent rookie season in 2021 rushing for 1200 yards and 7 touchdowns behind a poor line on 307 carries. Very few guys in the NFL get this kind of carry share, and Harris is another one of those freakish size/speed athletes. At 6’2” 230 pounds and running a 4.45 40 and possessing plenty of power and elusiveness, Harris is primed for a monster year. And this is without considering the fact that he caught 74 passes for 467 yards in 2021. That’s nearly 400 touches! Look out, Najee Harris might the king of fantasy football at the end of 2022.
The wide receiver room also improved with the drafting of super talented George Pickens out of Georgia. Add him to receivers Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and TE Pat Freiermuth, and the Steelers should have plenty of weapons to keep the offense consistently moving the ball. The Steelers unsettled quarterback situation is a legitimate reason to tap the breaks on selecting Harris 2nd overall, but I believe Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett can provide enough decent play when combined with a much improved offensive line to make the Steelers offense competent, unlike last year.
The big takeaway on the Steelers: look for a big, possibly very big year out of Najee Harris. I might even have him ranked #2 overall behind only Jonathan Taylor. Again, offensive line improvement is a huge reason why I see this happening.
3) Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are going to have a great, if not dominant offensive in 2022. The Bengals already had a very good offense last year with Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd all being good to very good fantasy options. And all of these viable fantasy options happened with a poor offensive line in 2021, ranking 20th in the NFL according to PFF.
Off-season additions include three good linemen in center Ted Karas (72 PFF grade), guard Alex Kappa (73 PFF grade), and right tackle La’ell Collins (82 PFF). Add these three guys to above-average left tackle returnee Jonah Williams and you have the formula for fantasy greatness.
Joe Mixon should be in line for another big fantasy season considering he had just under 300 carries and 42 receptions in 2021…that is a heavy workload. Mixon is not the freak show that Saquon and Najee are, but he is good enough with all of the help around him.
I especially like Joe Burrow in this offense with all of these weapons and likely greatly improved offensive line to have a huge year. I’d be surprised if he isn’t a top 3 quarterback. The only concern with this offense, barring injuries, is having to spread the touches out among so many receivers (Hayden Hurst is also a tight end sleeper in my opinion), which of course is a good problem for Burrow.
4) Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins added two big-time offensive linemen in free agency, left tackle Terron Armstead and guard Connor Williams. These guys had PFF grades of 76 and 71 in 2021, respectively, both very good. Additionally, they have returners Robert Hunt and Michael Dieter, two young, improving players who both graded solid in the 60s per PFF. The weak link last year was Liam Eichenberg who struggled at right tackle in his rookie year, but again, his youth and draft pedigree point to improvement this year.
When you look at the Dolphins other free-agent additions of Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, and Cedrick Wilson to go along with Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki, it’s not a stretch to think this team could make a major jump to the top 10-15 in the league offensively. All of these weapons and improved protection make Tua Tagovailoa likely to outperform his current preseason quarterback ranking of 18.
I’m not saying Tagovailoa will be Patrick Mahomes of 2018 or Lamar Jackson of 2019, but if he approaches their jump in those years, he could be a league winner.
5) Carolina Panthers
The Panthers made several quality additions to the offensive line in the offseason. If Sam Darnold continues seeing ghosts, the improved offensive line might not matter, but if (who am I kidding, when) he falters, the Panthers did draft a talented, athletic quarterback in Matt Corral who put up big numbers in the NFL’s Triple A league: the SEC.
The Panthers offensive line was a train wreck in 2021, but they went to work in the offseason with the additions of center Bradley Bozeman (73 PFF grade) and guard Austin Corbett (69 PFF grade) in free agency. Additionally, they picked 6’4” 320-pound Ikem Ekwonu with the #6 overall draft pick, and by all accounts, he is a devastating run blocker. Add these three guys to already elite tackle Taylor Moton, and that is a recipe for big-time improvement.
Christian McCaffrey of course jumps out as the primary beneficiary of all of this movement, barring injury. This is kind of like saying it’s going to be a dry spring in Seattle, barring rain. Maybe McCaffrey can stay in one piece this year and not pull a hamstring every other time he thinks about accelerating, but taking him early is a massive risk in my opinion. If he does stay healthy, look for McCaffrey to have a monster year and be the king of fantasy football again because his running and catching talent is unquestionable…especially when you consider how good he’s been when healthy in spite of his offensive line playing like hot garbage (#31 PFF ranking in 2021).
In the meantime, McCaffrey’s backups Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman better be on your radar late in drafts…if you figure out which one of those guys to take, please let me know.
