This article first appeared on RotoBaller.com
Editor’s Note: Our syndication partnership with Rotoballer.com for long-form content is coming to an end and this will be the last article we publish by them. But we will continue to bring you start/sit, DFS and other kinds of advice articles each week in different forms from Week 13-on. Rotoballer.com will continue to provide our player updates.
Welcome to our Week 12 matchups analysis and starts/sits column for fantasy football. We’ll be covering every matchup from every Sunday game to help you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups.
This is crunch time for most leagues so making the right start/sit decision is crucial. Lots of teams in must win mode that can’t afford to leave points on the bench. Let’s help you make the right choices and get the guys with the best matchups in your lineups.
I’ll be on Reddit each Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning to answer all your start/sit questions as well. You can also reach me directly on Twitter @ChrisMangano if you can’t wait.
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Week 12 NFL Matchups – 1:00 PM ET Games
Important note and credits about data used in this article:
- All snap counts taken from Football Outsiders. Adjusted line yards also taken from Football outsiders. You can read more here.
- Success rate is taken from Sharp Football Stats (Warren Sharp). You can read more about it here.
- Wide receiver snap percentages and corner grades/stats are taken from Pro Football Focus.
Teams on bye: None
Bills at Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF)
After the debacle that was the Nathan Peterman experiment, head coach Sean McDermott mercifully has announced Taylor will start for the Bills. This is a great spot for Taylor as the Chiefs rank 28th in yards per game, 18th in touchdown percentage and just 25th in sack rate. Taylor is a high floor, fringe QB1.
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
Despite negative game script and only getting 13 carries, McCoy gashed an awful Chargers rush defense for 114 yards and a touchdown. He’s in another great spot this week against a Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in adjusted line yards and 26th in yards per attempt, and has given up five straight top-12 scoring weeks. With Tyrod Taylor back under center the Bills should keep it more competitive which should increase McCoy’s usage. He is a locked-in must start.
Zay Jones (WR, BUF), Deonte Thompson (WR, BUF)
With Kelvin Benjamin out, Jones and Thompson will primarily play on the outside and draw a great matchup against corners Phillip Gaines and Marcus Peters. On the season the Chiefs outside corners are allowing 1.85 PPR points per target and have given up 10 touchdowns. Still, Jones and Thompson are in a low-volume passing attack and can’t be considered more than flex starts.
Kareem Hunt (RB, KC)
Hunt disappointed in a prime matchup against the Giants, but has a chance to redeem himself in an even better spot. Over the last four games, since the team traded Marcell Dareus, the Bills are allowing 5.1 YPC and have given up 12 rushing touchdowns. Hunt did have 20 touches against the Giants and should see at least 20 once again. Despite his struggles of late he is still a must start.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce has nine or more targets in three straight and gets a Bills defense that ranks 29th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 25th in yards per attempt. Kelce is a weekly must start and is a no-brainer play this week.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Charles Clay (TE, BUF) has just seven targets since returning from injury two games ago and gets a Chiefs defense that ranks eighth in success rate on throws to tight ends and 29th in yards per attempt. They have held Jason Witten and Evan Engram to finishes of 25th and 24th over the last two weeks. Clay can’t be considered more than a TE2 play given the matchup and volume.
Alex Smith (QB, KC) and the rest of the Chiefs offense have fallen back to earth in recent weeks. They failed to take advantage of a dysfunctional Giants defense on Sunday and get another chance against a Bills defense that can’t stop anyone. The Bills rank 24th in yards per game and 29th in sack rate, but haven’t given up many touchdowns through the air ranking second in touchdown percentage. Despite the good matchup, Smith no longer appears to be a must start and should be considered a fringe QB1.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill has at least six targets in four of the last five games, but doesn’t have more than eight in any. He’ll continue to be a boom/bust option against a Bills secondary that has given up just six touchdowns and allows 1.54 PPR points per target.
Titans at Colts
Matchups We Love:
Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN)
Despite throwing four interceptions against the Steelers on Thursday night, Mariota still managed 18 fantasy points. He now has 16 or more in three straight and gets a plus matchup against a Colts defense that ranks 30th in yards per game, 16th in touchdown percentage and 23rd in sack rate. They have allowed eight top-14 scoring weeks and six top-12 scoring weeks. Mariota should be a solid QB1 play.
Jacoby Brissett (QB, IND)
Brissett has posted three straight solid fantasy outings and should make it a fourth against a Titans defense that ranks 21st in yards per game, 26th in touchdown percentage and 31st in sack rate. Brissett is a great streaming option and is on the fringe QB1 radar.
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
Hilton has been boom/bust without Andrew Luck, but this could be a boom week as the Titans corners he’ll be facing 80% of the time have given up nine touchdowns and 1.68 PPR points per target. We saw what Antonio Brown just did to this defense, and while Hilton isn’t in his class he is still a top-level talent and is a solid WR2 play with upside for more.
Matchups We Hate:
Frank Gore (RB, IND)
Gore has 16, 17 and 17 carries over his last three games and has re-asserted himself as the lead back over Marlon Mack. While he should see 15 plus carries once again, he’ll do so against a Titans defense that ranks fifth in yards per attempt and has only allowed two top-12 scoring week to running backs. Gore is a low-end RB2 play.
Jack Doyle (TE, IND)
Doyle once again led the Colts in targets though he only had five in Week 10. Coming out of the bye he gets a tough matchup against a Titans defense that ranks third in success rate on throws to tight ends and first in yards per attempt. You can’t bench Doyle but owners should temper expectations.
Other Matchups:
DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) and Derrick Henry (RB, TEN) continue to split carries as Murray had eight against the Steelers on Thursday night while Henry had seven. Murray did have six targets to Henry’s zero, however, as the Titans were getting blown out and played catch-up. The Colts are a good matchup as they rank 20th in adjusted line yards and 17th in yards per attempt. Still, with the 50/50 timeshare in the Titans backfield neither can be considered more than a flex, though Murray is still the preferred play.
With Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN) looking unlikely to play, rookie Corey Davis (WR, TEN) will move into the number one role for the Titans. Playing 80% of his snaps on the outside he’ll have a good matchup against the Colts corners who have given up seven touchdowns and allow 1.52 PPR points per target. Davis has 17 targets over the last two games and could see double-digit targets with Matthews out. He is a solid WR2 play.
Delanie Walker (TE, TEN) has nine targets in each of the last two games and gets a Colts defense that ranks 20th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 24th in yards per attempt. This is a good spot for Walker and he is a solid TE1 start.
Browns at Bengals
Matchups We Love:
Tyler Kroft (TE, CIN)
Kroft made the most of his three targets against the Broncos scoring a touchdown, and could do so once again against a Browns defense that ranks 30th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 19th in yards per attempt. They have allowed seven top-12 scoring weeks and only Jack Doyle failed to post a scoring week better than 14th. Kroft is a fringe TE1 start.
Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE)
Crowell only had 11 carries in Week 10, but the Browns only ran the ball 13 times against an improved Jaguars rush defense. He now has 11 or more carries in five straight and gets a great matchup against a Bengals defense that has allowed five straight top-nine running back scoring weeks. Volume is always a question mark for Crowell which makes him a risky start, but in this matchup he should be a solid RB2.
Matchups We Hate:
DeShone Kizer (QB, CLE)
There is rarely a matchup you can feel good about starting Kizer, and this one is no different. The Bengals rank sixth in yards per game, fifth in touchdown percentage and seventh in sack rate. Kizer is coming off a game where he was responsible for five sacks, two interceptions, and one fumble; he shouldn’t be started in any format.
Duke Johnson (RB, CLE)
Johnson only had two of the Browns 13 rushes in Week 11 and continues to operate mostly as the passing-down back. He does have at least five targets in five straight games, however, but gets a Bengals defense that ranks 13th in success rate on throws to running backs and sixth in yards per attempt. Johnson can’t be considered more than a flex in PPR formats based on the tough spot.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon is coming off a 20-carry game against the Broncos which saw him rush for just 49 yards. He continues to be the primary ball carrier, but has done little with his opportunities. He is likely headed for another tough outing against a Browns defense that ranks second in both adjusted line yards and yards per attempt. Mixon is little more than a low-end flex play in a tough spot.
Other Matchups:
Corey Coleman (WR, CLE) returned from injury and promptly saw 11 targets and caught six passes for 83 yards against the best secondary in the league. He draws another tough test against a Bengals unit that has given up seven touchdowns but allows just 1.39 PPR points per target. The targets should be there for Coleman but in this matchup he can’t be considered more than a low-end WR3.
Just when you think you have the Browns tight end situation figured out, you get a week where Seth DeValve (TE, CLE) out-targets David Njoku (TE, CLE). This is a great spot as the Bengals quietly struggle against tight ends ranking 31st in success rate and 30th in yards per attempt. Unfortunately, neither DeValve or Njoku can be trusted and both are risky TE2 starts.
Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) has 16 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games and draws a good matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 15th in yards per game and 30th in touchdown percentage. Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles are the only quarterbacks to have worse than a QB16 finish against them. Dalton is a high-end QB2 start in this matchup.
Buccaneers at Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan continues to be a solid, but underwhelming fantasy start. He has only one game over 20 points but could make it a second against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 31st in yards per game, 19th in touchdown percentage and 30th in sack rate. They have allowed six top-10 scoring weeks. Ryan is a solid QB1 start.
Mohamed Sanu (WR, ATL)
Sanu draws another great matchup out of the slot against the Buccaneers slot corners who allow 2.13 PPR points per target. Sanu only has 11 targets over the last three games, but had 17 over the previous two. He should make the most of whatever targets he gets in this one and can be considered a PPR flex start with upside.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, TAM) is coming off a 275-yard, two-touchdown outing, though it was against the hapless Dolphins secondary. The Falcons are a step up, ranking seventh in yards per game and 13th in touchdown percentage. Still, with the exception of Dak Prescott in Week 10 (sans Tyron Smith), every quarterback they have faced has finished at least QB18 on the week. Fitzpatrick is a solid QB2 play.
Doug Martin (RB, TAM) has 18 or more carries in four of the last five but has been extremely ineffective averaging just 3.1 yards per attempt. The Falcons are an OK matchup ranking 17th in adjusted line yards and 15th in yards per attempt. The volume should be there once again for Martin but his ineffectiveness renders him little more than a flex play.
Even with Fitzpatrick under center, Mike Evans (WR, TAM) was a target monster seeing 10 for the third time in five games. He should once again be Fitzpatrick’s favorite target and gets an OK matchup against the Falcons outside corners who have only given up six touchdowns but allow 1.62 PPR points per target. Evans is a weekly must start and this matchup doesn’t change that. After seeing six or more targets in four out of five games, DeSean Jackson (WR, TAM) saw just three in Week 11. Lining up mostly on the outside, he will also have decent matchups. He is a boom/bust WR3 play.
It seems as if O.J. Howard (TE, TAM) has finally overtaken Cameron Brate (TE, TAM) as the team’s number one pass-catching tight end. Maybe things will change if Jameis Winston comes back, but for now we have to treat Howard as the preferred play. The matchup against the Falcons is just OK, as they rank 15th in success rate on throws to tight ends and seventh in yards per attempt. They have allowed back-to-back top-12 scoring weeks to Jason Witten and Jimmy Graham, so opportunity is there. Still, Howard can’t be considered more than a TE2.
With Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL) out in Week 11, Tevin Coleman (RB, ATL) got 20 carries and two targets. He now has back-to-back 20 carry games and should once again see a heavy dose of volume with Freeman set to miss another game. The Buccaneers are an OK matchup ranking 13th in adjusted line yards and 14th in yards per attempt. The offense will put Coleman in position to score, and the volume makes him a solid RB2.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL) continues to offer a high floor but a low ceiling as his touchdown production has been non-existent. The Buccaneers outside corners have allowed seven touchdowns and give up 1.79 PPR points per target, so Jones should once again offer a solid floor. He’s still a weekly must-start and this matchup should not scare his owners.
Austin Hooper (TE, ATL) had six targets in three straight games before getting just two against the Seahawks. The Buccaneers are just an OK matchup ranking 10th in success rate on throws to tight ends but 21st in yards per attempt. Hooper will need to see more targets to have any kind of value and is a low-end TE2 start.
Dolphins at Patriots
Matchups We Love:
Damien Williams (RB, MIA), Kenyan Drake (RB, MIA)
Williams and Drake continue to operate as a split backfield. The Patriots present a great spot as they rank dead last in adjusted line yards and yards per attempt. If either of these players had control of this backfield they’d be a must start in such a good matchup. Instead they should both be viewed as flex plays with upside.
Tom Brady (QB, NE)
Brady has quietly been incredible this year and should post top-five numbers against a Dolphins defense that ranks 17th in yards per game, 27th in touchdown percentage and 26th in sack rate. In the last two weeks they gave up a QB1 finish to Cam Newton and a QB9 finish to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brady is in a class above both of those and is a locked-in must start.
Brandin Cooks (WR, NE)
In the two games Chris Hogan has missed Cooks has 11 and nine targets. He should once again push for double-digit targets and is in a great spot against the Dolphins outside corners that have given up eight touchdowns and allow 1.77 PPR points per target. Cooks is an easy WR1 start.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)
Gronkowski surprisingly only had three targets in Week 11 after having at least seven in the previous four. He should see more this week against a Dolphins defense that ranks 24th in success rate on throws to tight ends and have allowed five straight top-12 scoring weeks. Gronkowski is a locked-in must start.
Matchups We Hate:
Matt Moore (QB, MIA)
The Patriots defense has looked like their old selves over the past four weeks, as corners Malcom Butler and Stephon Gilmore have elevated their game back to 2016 levels. While they haven’t played a murderer’s row of quarterbacks, they have held Drew Stanton to a QB14 finish, Phillip Rivers to a QB21 finish, Brock Osweiler to a QB25 finish and Derek Carr to a QB20 finish. Matt Moore is far from elite and can’t be considered more than a low-end QB2 play.
Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)
The Patriots secondary that was once a fantasy gold mine has reasserted itself as one of the best. Over the last three weeks, the Patriots slot corners have yet to allow a touchdown and are giving up just 1.01 PPR points per target. Landry has double-digit targets in four of the last five and should once again be heavily targeted, but in this matchup he can’t be considered more than a WR2.
Rex Burkhead (RB, NE)
Burkhead fumbled but luckily was not kept in Bill Belichick’s doghouse as he still saw five carries and six targets. The Dolphins do a great job against pass catching backs ranking fifth in both success rate and yards per attempt. Burkhead is nothing more than a low-end flex play.
Other Matchups:
The Patriots use shadow coverage with their corners so DeVante Parker (WR, MIA) will be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore. After a slow start to the year Gilmore is playing better and has given up only one touchdown and 1.52 PPR points per target over the last three games. Having Matt Moore back under center doesn’t help Parker’s cause either and he can’t be considered more than a WR2 start. Kenny Stills (WR, MIA) gets the biggest boost with Moore under center and will draw shadow coverage from Malcolm Butler. Butler has been better over the last three weeks only allowing one touchdown but is still giving up 1.97 PPR points per target. Stills is a sneaky start this week and can be considered a WR3 play with upside.
Julius Thomas (TE, MIA) has at least four targets in five of the last six and gets an OK matchup against a Patriots defense that ranks 22nd in success rate on throws to tight ends but 10th in yards per attempt. They haven’t allowed a finish better than 17th over the last four games either. Thomas is little more than a low-end TE2.
Dion Lewis (RB, NE) continues to operate as the lead back and now has 10 or more carries in five straight. He added four targets on Sunday, and if he becomes more involved in the passing game he will offer tremendous fantasy value. The Dolphins rank 16th in adjusted line yards and 20th in yards per attempt, so Lewis is in a good spot and can be considered a high-end flex start.
Danny Amendola (WR, NE) has 13 targets in the two games Chris Hogan has missed and gets a good matchup against the Dolphins slot corners who are allowing 1.62 PPR points per target. Amendola is rarely a guy you want to start in standard scoring leagues but is a solid PPR flex play.
Bears at Eagles
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Jordan Howard (RB, CHI)
After getting 20 or more carries in three straight, Howard now has just 15 in each of the last two games. The Eagles are an elite run-stopping unit ranking first in both adjusted line yards and yards per attempt, and have allowed only one top-12 scoring week all season. You can’t bench Howard but owners should temper expectations.
Tarik Cohen (RB, CHI)
Cohen had nine carries on Sunday after having just five total over the last three games. He added six targets as well. The Eagles do an excellent job against pass catching backs ranking seventh in success rate and yards per attempt. Cohen is little more than a low-end flex in PPR formats.
Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Wentz is having an MVP type season but finds himself in a difficult spot against a Bears defense that ranks 12th in yards per game, ninth in touchdown percentage and third in sack rate. They have only allowed three top-12 scoring weeks and no quarterback has a finish higher than QB8. Still, Wentz is a weekly must start though owners should temper expectations.
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
Ertz had by far his worst game of the season in Week 11 and may struggle once again against a Bears defense that ranks fifth in success rate on throws to tight ends and 14th in yards per attempt. They haven’t allowed a top-15 scoring week over the last four and only two top-12 scoring weeks all year. You can’t bench Ertz, but don’t expect TE1 production.
Other Matchups:
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI) has had at least 14 fantasy points in two straight starts, and could post similar numbers against an Eagles defense that ranks 19th in yards per game but 10th in touchdown percentage. The Bears should be in negative game script in this one which should force more attempts for Trubisky. Still, he can’t be considered more than a low-end QB2 start.
Dontrelle Inman (WR, CHI) has 13 targets in his two games with the team and gets a good matchup against the Eagles outside corners that have allowed eight touchdowns and give up 1.5 PPR points per target. Inman can’t be considered more than a flex start, however, with his low volume.
Adam Shaheen (TE, CHI) has asserted himself as the main pass-catching tight end but has only six targets over the last two games. The matchup this week is just OK as the Eagles rank 16th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 11th in yards per attempt. Shaheen doesn’t have the volume to make him more than a TE2 start.
In the two games since trading for Jay Ajayi (RB, PHI), LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI) leads the team with 22 carries while Corey Clement (RB, PHI) has added 18 and Ajayi 15. This is a full-blown RBBC making it hard to trust any of them. The matchup is OK as the Bears rank 25th in adjusted line yards and 15th in yards per attempt. Still, with the three-way split we’d prefer not to start any.
Alshon Jeffrey (WR, PHI) has at least seven targets in four of the last five and draws a good matchup against the Bears outside corners that have given up eight touchdowns and allow 1.66 PPR points per target. Jeffrey has been playing better of late and should continue that trend, and can be considered a high-end WR2 play.
Panthers at Jets
Matchups We Love:
Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
The last time we saw Newton he was carving up the Dolphins for four touchdowns and 95 rushing yards. He should have little problem against a Jets defense that ranks 16th in yards per game, 29th in touchdown percentage and 24th in sack rate. Seven quarterbacks have posted top-12 scoring weeks and there is no reason to think Newton won’t make it a 10th. He is an easy QB1 play.
Russell Shepard (WR, CAR)
Shepard saw seven targets before the teams bye and could see that many or more with Curtis Samuel out. Shepard draws a great matchup against the Jets slot corners who allow 1.95 PPR points per target. Shepard is a sneaky flex start in a plus matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR)
Stewart has 11 or more carries in five of the last six games but draws a tough matchup against a Jets defense that ranks eighth in adjusted line yards and 11th in yards per attempt. Stewart is tough to trust in good matchups and can’t be considered more than a desperation flex in this tough matchup.
Devin Funchess (WR, CAR)
Funchess has at least six targets in the last six games and is likely to draw shadow coverage from Morris Claiborne. Claiborne has been one of the best corners this year having yet to allow a touchdown and giving up just 1.24 PPR points per target. While Funchess has paid off for his owners, this may be a spot they want to bench him.
Josh McCown (QB, NYJ)
McCown has been a safe start this year, scoring less than double-digit fantasy points just once. He’s in a tough spot this week, however, as the Panthers rank fourth in yards per game and sack rate. While he should offer a safe floor, his upside is limited in this matchup and he can’t be considered more than a low-end QB2.
Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ), Elijah McGuire (RB, NYJ)
Powell handled just 10 carries and two targets in Forte’s absence, while McGuire got eight carries but seven targets. The Panthers are a tough team to run on ranking 10th in adjusted line yards and 12th in yards per attempt. If Forte is back Powell is a low-end flex and McGuire should not be started.
Other Matchups:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR) only has more than seven carries in one game over his last six, but has at least six targets in all of them. The Jets do an OK job against pass catching backs, ranking 10th in success rate but 26th in yards per attempt. McCaffrey should once again be involved in the passing game and can be viewed as a RB2 in PPR formats.
Greg Olsen (TE, CAR) is set to return from his foot injury and gets an OK first test against a Jets defense that ranks 17th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 16th in yards per attempt. Olsen is a risky start coming back from injury and can’t be viewed as more than a fringe TE1.
Matt Forte (RB, NYJ) is back at practice and looks set to return. Before missing one game with injury he had four or more targets in four straight games and was posting PPR flex value. The Panthers are a good matchup ranking 20th in success rate on throws to running backs and 11th in yards per attempt.
Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ) has at least five targets in six straight games and gets a good matchup against the Panthers secondary that has given up five touchdowns and allows 1.63 PPR points per target. Anderson is a solid flex start.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, NYJ) has at least five targets in five of the last six games but gets a semi-tough matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 21st in success rate on throws to tight ends and 15th in yards per attempt. Jenkins should remain one of McCown’s top targets, and despite a not ideal matchup is a low-end TE1.
NFL Week 12 Matchups – 4:00 PM ET Games
Seahawks at 49ers
Matchups We Love:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Wilson has been fantastic this season and is pretty much the entire Seahawks offense. Going into Monday nights game, Wilson had accounted for 82.1% of the Seahawks yardage and led the team in rushing. All he did was throw for 258 yards and rush for another 86. He should continue his incredible play against a 49ers defense that ranks 23rd in yards per game and 24th in touchdown percentage. Wilson is a locked-in must start.
J.D. McKissic (RB, SEA)
McKissic led the backfield in Week 11 with seven carries, but he did add six targets. The 49ers are bad any way you slice it, ranking 23rd in adjusted line yards and 18th in yards per attempt. They also rank 26th in success rate on throws to running backs and 31st in yards per attempt. McKissic carries plenty of risk but makes for a flex start in PPR leagues.
Paul Richardson (WR, SEA)
While there is always risk in Richardson’s volume, he has two, seven, three, two and eight targets over the last five, he is in a great spot this week against the 49ers outside corners who have given up nine touchdowns and allow 1.74 PPR points per target. Richardson’s inconsistent volume make him nothing more than a flex play though he has upside in this game.
Matchups We Hate:
Carlos Hyde (RB, SF)
Hyde has double-digit carries in five straight and six or more targets in four of the last six. He’ll need all the volume he can get against a Seahawks defense that ranks ninth in adjusted line yards and 10th in yards per attempt. They have only allowed one top-12 scoring week and have held six of the last seven to finishes of 18th or worse. You can’t bench Hyde but owners should temper expectations.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle is set to return but draws a tough matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks first in success rate on throws to tight ends and ninth in yards per attempt. Even without Kam Chancellor this defense is still tough against tight ends and Kittle should be left on benches if possible.
Other Matchups:
Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA) now has just six targets in back-to-back games after having 10 or more in three straight. He could once again push for double-digit targets against the 49ers slot corners who allow 1.62 PPR points per target. Baldwin is a solid start this week.
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA) has been on fire the last three weeks and has eight or more targets in each game over that span. While the 49ers generally struggle everywhere on defense, they are actually OK against tight ends ranking 18th in success rate and sixth in yards per attempt. Regardless, Graham is in must start territory and is an easy TE1 play.
C.J. Beathard (QB, SF) has been quietly good especially with the terrible protection the 49ers line has afforded him. The Seahawks matchup is no longer as daunting as it once was with the loss of Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. Still, Beathard can’t be considered more than a QB2 start.
Marquise Goodwin (WR, SF) makes for a decent boom/bust option against a Seahawks secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Shaquill Griffin and Kam Chancellor. Still, the other Seahawks outside corners are adequate and have allowed just 1.54 PPR points per target. Goodwin is a boom/bust flex play.
Saints at Rams
Matchups We Love:
Mark Ingram (RB, NO)
Ingram now has double-digit carries in every game since the Adrian Peterson trade, and gets a Rams defense that ranks 28th in yards per attempt and has allowed five top-six scoring weeks. Ingram has been posting top-five scoring weeks and is a locked-in must start.
Jared Goff (QB, LAR) struggled against a tough Vikings secondary which has been the norm for him this season. He lights up bottom half defenses and struggles against top half defenses. Normally the Saints would be a top half defense, but without one of their best pass rushers in Alex Okafor, and without their two best corners Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, the defense takes a major hit. Goff is now in a prime spot for a bounce-back game and can be considered a solid QB1.
Todd Gurley (RB, LAR)
Gurley has 15 or more carries in four of the last five and should once again be heavily involved against a Saints defense that ranks 24th in yards per attempt and will be without one of their best defensive lineman, Alex Okafor. The Saints have allowed seven top-12 scoring weeks and there is no reason to think Gurley won’t make it an eighth. He is a locked-in must start.
Sammy Watkins (WR, LAR)
With Robert Woods out, Watkins will slide into the clear number one role and gets a Saints defense missing Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley. Without those two on the outside this defense is allowing 1.69 PPR points per target. Watkins is in a great spot and can be considered a low-end WR2 play with upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Kupp will still have a tough draw out of the slot against the Saints slot corners who have yet to allow a touchdown and give up just 1.38 PPR points per target. Kupp can’t be worse than he was in Week 11 with a drop and a fumble, but owners should still temper expectations.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Higbee has three or more targets in five of the last six, but doesn’t have more than five over that stretch. The Saints do an excellent job against tight ends ranking sixth in success rate and eighth in yards per attempt. They did just give up a TE4 scoring week to Vernon Davis, but Higbee is much less involved and can’t be trusted as more than a low-end TE2 at best.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO), Ted Ginn (WR, NO)
Thomas has seen 11 targets in three of the last six and at least eight in five of the last six, and has been as consistent as they come. He draws a tough matchup this week as he’ll see shadow coverage from Trumaine Johnson. On the season Johnson has yet to give up a touchdown and allows just 1.43 PPR points per target. Thomas offers a safe floor but a limited ceiling in this one. Ginn gets it slightly easier against the other Rams outside corners but is still in a tough spot as they are allowing just 1.47 PPR points per target. Ginn is a risky flex start.
Other Matchups:
Drew Brees (QB, NO) was finally in a game script that required the Saints to air it out and his owners were rewarded to the tune of 22 fantasy points. The Rams offense could keep up with the Saints who will be down one of their best pass rushers and their best cover corner. The Rams will be missing two corners as well which elevates a normally tough matchup. Brees is a solid QB1 start once again.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) continues to make the most of his touches and now has seven or more targets in four of the last six games. The Rams do a good job against pass catching backs ranking sixth in success rate and eighth in yards per attempt. Despite the tough matchup Kamara is still a must start, especially in PPR formats.
Jaguars at Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Leonard Fournette (RB, JAC)
So much for Fournette’s ankle limiting him. He rushed 28 times and saw three targets against the Browns on Sunday after concerns he might not even play. He is in another tough spot this week, however, against a Cardinals defense that ranks sixth in adjusted line yards and seventh in yards per attempt. Still, Fournette became the first runner to go over 100 yards against the Browns and is a must start regardless of matchup.
Marqise Lee (WR, JAC)
Lee draws the dreaded shadow coverage of Patrick Peterson in Week 12. Peterson has only given up two touchdowns and allows just 1.37 PPR points per target. Lee has seen nine or more targets in four of the last five, but even that likely isn’t enough to save his day. He is a flex play at best and owners should look for better options if possible.
Blaine Gabbert (QB, ARI)
Gabbert looked good against a hapless Texans defense, but will find things much tougher against a Jaguars secondary that ranks first in yards per game, touchdown percentage and sack rate. Only two quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota and Phillip Rivers, have posted a finish higher than QB22 and no quarterback has finished higher than QB16. Gabbert is not in the class of those guys and should be benched this week.
Adrian Peterson (RB, ARI)
Peterson has 20 or more carries in three of the five games he has played with the Cardinals and should once again be heavily involved. The Jaguars were once a soft running back matchup, but since trading for Marcell Dareus they are holding opponents to just 2.82 yards per attempt. Peterson will get the volume, but the efficiency likely won’t be there. He can’t be considered more than a low-end RB2.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)
Fitzgerald has nine or more targets in four of the last five and saw 10 with Blaine Gabbert under center on Sunday. He gets the “easier” corner matchup against the Jaguars slot corners, but it is by no means an easy spot as they have yet to give up a touchdown and allow just 1.27 PPR points per target. Fitzgerald can’t be considered more than a WR2 in this tough spot.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, ARI)
Seals-Jones broke out in a big way with five targets and two touchdowns in Week 11. Owners should not expect a repeat, however, as the Jaguars rank 10th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 12th in yards per attempt. They have held six units to finishes of TE21 or worse. Seals-Jones is a desperation TE2 play.
Other Matchups:
Blake Bortles (QB, JAC) wasn’t asked to do much against the Browns and threw for just 154 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are by no means a tough matchup ranking 22nd in yards per game, 21st in touchdown percentage and 20th in sack rate. Still, the Jaguars defense should hold them in check which will allow the team to lean heavily on the run game once again. Bortles likely won’t be asked to do much and is nothing more than a desperation QB2 play.
In his NFL debut, Dede Westbrook (WR, JAC) saw six targets. He could see even more targets as his snaps increase and with Allen Hurns looking unlikely to play again. Westbrook will have a good matchup against the Cardinals corners not named Patrick Peterson who are allowing 1.82 PPR points per target and have given up seven touchdowns. Westbrook is a risky start but has upside as a flex play.
Marcedes Lewis (TE, JAC) came through with a score in a plus matchup with the Browns but did so with only two targets. He gets a tougher test this week against a Cardinals defense that ranks 27th in success rate on throws to tight ends but fourth in yards per attempt. Only four tight ends have posted a top-20 finish against this group and it’s doubtful Lewis will add to that. He can be benched everywhere.
Broncos at Raiders
Matchups We Love:
Paxton Lynch (QB, DEN)
With the Broncos firing offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and promoting quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave, the team decided to get another look at Lynch. Lynch played in three games in 2016 and completed just 59% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception. He gets a great matchup this week, however, as the Raiders rank 27th in yards per game, 23rd in touchdown percentage and 28th in sack rate. They have allowed four straight top-12 scoring weeks. Still, Lynch can’t be considered more than a risky QB2.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN), Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN)
With Lynch under center Sanders would seem to be the preferred play. In the three games Lynch played in 2016 Sanders averaged 10.33 targets and never had less than nine while Thomas averaged eight targets. Thomas did score more touchdowns however, so both should be great starts against a Raiders secondary that has given up nine touchdowns and allows 2.1 PPR points per target. Both Sanders and Thomas should be considered high-end WR2 starts with the slight edge to Sanders.
Virgil Green (TE, DEN)
With A.J. Derby out, Green saw four targets and gets a great matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 27th in yards per attempt. They’ve allowed seven top-12 scoring weeks as well. Despite the plus matchup, Green can’t be considered more than a high-end TE2 due to his low volume.
Jared Cook (TE, OAK)
Cook has at least five targets in four straight games and should be heavily involved against a Broncos defense that ranks 28th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 30th in yards per attempt. They’ve allowed six top-five scoring weeks and Cooks has the ability to make it a seventh. He is a solid TE1 start.
Matchups We Hate:
Marshawn Lynch (RB, OAK)
Lynch has double-digit carries in three of his last four but doesn’t have more than 14 in any of them. The Broncos are a tough matchup ranking third in both adjusted line yards and yards per attempt. With such low volume and in a tough spot, Lynch should be benched if possible.
Other Matchups:
Devontae Booker (RB, DEN) led the team with 14 carries on Sunday and also added six targets. If he continues to see that kind of volume he could post RB2 numbers against a Raiders team that ranks 24th in adjusted line yards and 23rd in yards per attempt. Still, it’s hard to trust he’ll get those kind of touches again which makes him more of a flex start this week. C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN) had 13 carries and three targets and has fallen to nothing more than a flex start even in a good matchup against the Raiders.
Derek Carr (QB, OAK) has at least 14 points in four straight games, but hasn’t scored over 16 in three straight. He could once again have a pedestrian fantasy day against a Broncos defense that ranks fifth in yards per game but has given up the most passing touchdowns. Carr offers a safe floor as a high-end QB2 but his upside is limited in this matchup.
Amari Cooper (WR, OAK) has at least seven targets in the last four games and nine or more in three of four. Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK) has three games with double-digit targets in the last five, but just 11 combined in the other two. The Broncos are no longer the shut-down secondary of years past having given up nine touchdowns and allowing 1.68 PPR points per target. Cooper can be viewed as a high-end WR3 while Crabtree is a solid WR2 play.
NFL Week 12 Matchups – Sunday Night Football
Packers at Steelers
Matchups We Love:
Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)
It’s going to be hard for Brown to match what he did on Thursday night against the Titans, but in another prime time spot against the Packers secondary he could come close. This Packers unit has given up eight touchdowns and allows 1.89 PPR points per target. Brown has only two games with less than 10 targets, and no game with less than seven. With JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out, he is a lock for double-digit targets and is a must start.
Martavis Bryant (WR, PIT)
With JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out, Bryant will have another opportunity to run as the number two along side Brown. Bryant has big upside in this matchup but also considerable risk. He makes for a great boom/bust flex start however for owners looking for that home run play.
Matchups We Hate:
Brett Hundley (QB, GB)
Hundley has looked better of late, but still has ways to go to be a consistent NFL quarterback. Things won’t be easy for him this week as the Steelers rank third in yards per game and touchdown percentage, and second in sack rate. The Packers will likely be in negative game script which means Hundley will have plenty of attempts to rack up points but still can’t be considered anything but a low-end QB2.
Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT)
Bell continues to see 20 plus touches and should do so once again in a game that figures to be positive game script. The Packers are a good unit against the run, however, ranking seventh in adjusted line yards and eighth in yards per attempt. They do an OK job against pass catching backs as well ranking 19th in success rate and 18th in yards per attempt. Despite that, Bell is a locked-in must start every week, though owners should temper expectations.
Jesse James (TE, PIT)
James is coming off an eight-target game and could see more looks with JuJu Smith-Schuster out. Unfortunately, the matchup is not great for tight ends, as the Packers rank 10th in success rate on throws to the TE position and 13th in yards per attempt. No tight end has a finish better than TE17 against them. James is a risky start and should be left on benches if possible.
Other Matchups:
Jamaal Williams (RB, GB) had 18 carries and six targets with both Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery out of the lineup. With Montgomery likely to sit another week he could see similar volume against a Steelers defense that ranks 22nd in yards per attempt but has held six straight running back units to scoring weeks of 20th or worse. Williams is a low-end RB2 if he gets the start.
In the five games Brett Hundley has started, Davante Adams (WR, GB) has 10 or more targets in three of them and eight or more in four of them. He is clearly Hundley’s preferred target but gets just an average matchup this week against a Steelers secondary that has given up only four touchdowns and allows just 1.56 PPR points per target. Adams is a WR3 play. Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) has at least four targets in all of Hundley’s starts but can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups at this point.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT) has looked more like Ben Roethlisberger of late and has at least 17 fantasy points in three straight. He should offer another high floor performance against a Packers defense that ranks 18th in yards per game, 14th in touchdown percentage and 19th in sack rate. Roethlisberger is a low-end QB1 play.
