Fantasy matchups Week 12: Wide receivers to start and fade

Happy Thanksgiving to all! I am thankful for all of you who have given this column a read this year; the support is much appreciated. All of us as football fans must be thankful for the new NFL schedule this year: a triple header Thursday, a new Black Friday game, and a full slate come Sunday & Monday. Let’s kick off the holidays and week 12 off right! 

The elites outside – Week 12 wide receiver matchups

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (TNF) 

The Thanksgiving nightcap is an NFC West showdown as the 49ers travel to Seattle to play the Seahawks. The 49ers are the top-graded receiving unit in the NFL in 2023, with the Seahawks coming in at 5th overall  (PFF).

Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers in targets at 60 on the season (PFF), and will continue his career season splitting time against Tariq Woolen and Tre Brown of the Seahawks. Buy Brandon Aiyuk this week. Woolen and Brown allow receptions on just over 61% (PFF) of routes on which they are targeted, and Aiyuk has an elite aDoT of 14.9 (PFF), which is good for third deepest in the NFL. Woolen and Brown will be asked to defend Aiyuk on routes of 10-plus yards all evening. On routes over 10 yards this season, Aiyuk has tallied 704 receiving yards (PFF) and all four of his touchdowns (PFF).

Deebo Samuel should see snaps on the exterior and in the slot, and his aDoT of 7.3 (PFF) is shallower than that of the two exterior corners of the Seahawks. This should continue to limit Samuel’s big play ability in the passing game, and Devon Witherspoon will be manning him out of the slot. Witherspoon is not allowing completions when targeted; he ranks fourth (PFF) in the NFL among corners in reception percentage allowed, which should limit Samuel’s opportunities for YAC in the middle of the field. Fade Deebo Samuel this week, his best opportunity to find the end zone may be on a handoff near the goal line.

George Kittle continues to work mainly on inline snaps, which will draw a collection of Seahawks defenders, including Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Julian Love, and Jamal Adams. Kittle outgrades all of these players in receiving vs. coverage, with the top receiving grade among tight ends in the league at 88.0 (PFF). Kittle continues to be a favorite target for Brock Purdy, whose passer rating jumps off the page while targeting his tight end at 146.1 (PFF). The lowest rate of receptions allowed on targets from this Seahawks group is Bobby Wagner at 77.3% (PFF); the catches should come for the 49ers tight end and targets in the red zone; buy Kittle this week. 

DK Metcalf is likely to be matched up with Deommodore Lenoir this week to Geno Smith’s left. Buy Metcalf in this one; Lenoir is inside the top 15 in YAC allowed with 200 yards conceded and allows receptions 72.3 % of targets (PFF). While Lenoir has not allowed a touchdown this season, his aDoT is only 9.7 (PFF) in comparison to 14.9 (PFF) for Metcalf. The physical Seahawks receiver should have multiple opportunities on routes between 10 and 20 yards, a depth where he has scored two touchdowns, and Smith carries a passer rating of 105.5 (PFF).

Tyler Lockett will see Charvarius Ward on the opposite side in what could be a long night for the veteran Seahawks receiver. Lockett and Ward share identical aDoTs at 12.0 (PFF), and with Ward allowing receptions on just 58.3 % (PFF) of targets, Lockett will be forced to come down with contested catches in a matchup where he is overmatched physically. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Isaiah Oliver will be the duo in the slot. These two grade out very similar, but Oliver is allowing the highest rate of receptions while targeted of any corner in the NFL at 87.5% (PFF). Oliver has also conceded three touchdowns on the year; this matchup is one of few advantages the Seattle offense will have, so buy Smith-Nigba. 

Matchup Winners: Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith- Njigba

Matchup Losers: Deebo Samuel, Tyler Lockett

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

The Jaguars look to extend their lead in the AFC South against the Texans on Sunday in Houston. Christian Kirk leads Jacksonville in both targets and yardage; he will be matched up with Texans’ corner Tavierre Thomas out of the slot. Buy Christian Kirk in this one. While Thomas has not allowed a touchdown in 2023, he allows receptions on 81.3% (PFF) of targets and has an aDoT of just 5.0 (PFF). Kirk will not only have an opportunity to rack up catches but also to beat Thomas down the field with an aDoT of 10.3 (PFF); Kirk is a solid WR2 in Week 12.

Calvin Ridley will be splitting snaps out wide against Steven Nelson and Shaquil Griffin of the Texans. Fade Ridley this week. Nelson and Griffin have been effective thus far for Houston in 2023. They have allowed just two touchdowns and competitive passer ratings of 76.6 (PFF) and 81.4 (PFF) for Nelson and Griffin, respectively. Ridley will need to beat Griffin for a deep catch to salvage his day; a deeper aDoT than Griffin is his only advantage this week (PFF).

Evan Engram comes in taking 53.3% (PFF) of his snaps out of the slot, his highest split of any alignment. This will bring multiple Texans defenders to him, including Tavierre Thomas and safety Jimmie Ward. Fade Engram here; his aDoT will not stretch the coverage of either Thomas or Ward. Ward will likely cover Engram in the red zone and has yet to allow a touchdown (PFF). Engram has been productive yardage-wise but has not found the end zone (PFF).

Tank Dell and Nico Collins of the Texans will take turns dealing with Darious Williams of the Jaguars on Sunday. Williams has been one of the best corners in the NFL this season, with an elite coverage grade of 87.6 (PFF). This would be a double fade, but the Texans’ receivers will have opportunities to beat Tyson Campbell on the other side of the field, who has allowed four touchdowns (PFF) and a passer rating of 107.8 (PFF).

Buy Tank Dell; he has a deeper aDoT than Campbell at 14.3 (PFF) and has done significant damage down the field with 253 yards and four touchdowns on routes over 20 yards (PFF). Nico Collins plays at the same depth as Campbell and also cracks the top 10 among receivers in contested catch rate at 55.6 % (PFF). Regardless, fade Collins. The Jaguars are graded 4th best in the NFL in coverage (PFF); there should be a limit of fantasy production coming from the Texans’ receivers this week.

Dalton Schultz will likely share snaps with Jaguars’ linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Loyd. Lloyd is the more vulnerable of the two, allowing three touchdowns in 2023 (PFF). It’s hard to see Oluokun not finding Schultz in the red zone. Fade Schultz, both of these linebackers grade out well in coverage, and the Jaguars should be mixing looks against the Houston tight end.

Matchup Winners: Christian Kirk, Tank Dell 

Matchup Losers: Evan Engram, Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders 

To the AFC West, where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs head to Sin City to take on the Raiders. Travis Kelce is likely to see three different Raiders defenders on Sunday: cornerback Nate Hobbs and linebackers Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo.

Buy Kelce this week; he has a mix of advantages on these three, depending on who he draws. Kelce’s aDoT is deeper than all three at 6.9 (PFF). He should be able to expose Hobbs and Spillane in the middle of the field, who lead the raiders in YAC allowed (PFF). A touchdown opportunity could come for Kelce come against Deablo, who has conceded three on the season (PFF). Hobbs, Spillane, and Deablo all allow receptions on over 70% of targets (PFF); Kelce should compile solid totals in receptions and yardage and, of course, remains the top red zone target for Patrick Mahomes.

Rashee Rice will be matched up with a rotation of Raiders corners, including Marcus Peters, Amik Robertson, and the aforementioned Nate Hobbs. Fade Rashee Rice in this game; his aDoT remains very shallow at 5.7 (PFF). Rice may catch the ball in front of the Raiders’ secondary and be stopped shortly after. 

Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers will be covered by both L’Jarius Snead and Jaylen Watson of the Chiefs. Adams outgrades both corners by a significant margin, but this Chiefs coverage group limits fantasy production. Watson is the only Chiefs’ corner having allowed multiple touchdowns this season (PFF).

It’s unlikely the Chiefs will allow Adams to take Watson apart in the red zone, and with Aidan O’Connell still phasing in as the starting QB for the Raiders, it is hard to see Adams having an overly productive fantasy outing. Jakobi Meyers will be the better bet to score; he may be able to draw Jaylen Watson inside the 20. On routes under 10 yards this season, Meyers has scored four touchdowns (PFF) along with 209 receiving yards (PFF). Fade Adams, Buy Meyers. 

Matchup Winners: Travis Kelce, Jakobi Meyers

Matchup Losers: Rashee Rice, Davante Adams

Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are coming off an impressive win on the road on Monday night in Kansas City to take on the Bills. Stefon Diggs takes snaps all over formations; he will see Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and lastly Bradley Roby in the slot.

Buy Diggs. His versatility will allow him to expose Darius Slay for YAC, a category where Diggs ranks 11th overall in the NFL with 289 yards (PFF) this season. Bradberry continues to have his issues allowing touchdowns and is giving up a competitive passer rating of 111.8 (PFF). Bradley Roby has not been tested much, receiving just 11 targets (PFF) on the season; if the Bills are able to draw him on Diggs in the slot, they may look that way. Josh Allen has turned the ball over this season but remains an elite talent throwing the ball. Allen will continue to target Diggs consistently, who has already eclipsed 100 targets this season with a total of 108 (PFF).

Gabe Davis still carries a deep aDoT of 14.1 (PFF) despite his recent struggles. This will take Slay and Bradberry deeper than their own aDoTs, and the Bills may need to stretch the field to pace with the Eagles in this game. Buy Gabe Davis on a correction week for his fantasy production.

Dalton Kincaid comes in taking 55.2% of his snaps out of the slot, leading him to the two elite coverage linebackers of the Eagles, Zach Murrow and Nick Cunnigham. Fade Dalton Kincaid, Murrow, and Cunningham have kept passer ratings under 90 collectively and are yet to allow a touchdown in 2023 (PFF). 

AJ Brown and Devonta Smith continue to lead the Eagles in targets with 92 and 67, respectively (PFF). Out wide this week, they will meet Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas of the Bills. This duo of Bills corners has been sturdy in coverage this season, but both Brown and Smith will force them out of their comfort zone with the deeper aDoTs.

Buy AJ Brown on a bounce back from the poor performance last week; he should be able to expose Douglas, in particular, who has allowed the highest yardage total on the Bills at 336 yards (PFF) and three touchdowns (PFF). Fade Devonta Smith, the Eagles continue to be a balanced attack offensively, and the Bills are graded 22nd in the NFL in run defense (PFF). Devonta Smith has been on a roll, but the targets should shift back to Brown this week, not leaving much opportunity after the Eagles establish the run. 

Matchup Winners: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, AJ Brown

Matchup Losers: Dalton Kincaid, Devonta Smith 

ATTENTION! 5th Down is moving to Substack

After April 1, 2024, 5th Down Fantasy will be operating via Substack. Please subscribe now for free to receive future articles, which will be accessible on Substack and emailed to you directly. If you can spare a few dollars, you can also enjoy the benefits that our existing paid Substack subscribers receive, including our award-winning fantasy football player rankings, weekend playbook email, additional advice and analysis articles, and more. LEARN MORE