IN THE WEEKLY FANTASY UNIT, THERE ARE CRIMES COMMITTED THAT WOULD SHOCK AND APPALL YOU: NEGATIVE POINTS, UNDERWHELMING SUPERSTARS AND OUTRIGHT BUSTS. THESE ARE THE FINDINGS OF ONE MAN ON A MISSION TO EXPOSE THE NFL’S BIGGEST PERPETRATORS BEFORE THEY STRIKE AGAIN. THESE ARE … THE FANTASY FILES
Welcome everyone to Week 14 of the 2019 NFL Season! The annual day of giving thanks has come and gone, and a select group of lucky owners has found themselves in the fantasy football playoffs.
This upcoming stretch (Weeks 14-16) is the point where the men/women are separated from the boys/girls, and each roster move takes on an elevated level of importance. There is no room for error in the playoffs, so we’re here to make sure you’re prepared with the information you’ll need to bring home a W. Let’s get to it:
WHERE WE HIT IN WEEK 13:
- PHILIP RIVERS (17 Points)
- A rough year for the Chargers veteran QB continued on Sunday afternoon at Mile High Stadium. With their season all but over and facing a divisional opponent, LA was unable to pick themselves off the mat and muster a victory against lesser competition. Rivers’ 17 point fantasy finish was his highest point total since way back in Week 7 (21 points), and he has only thrown more than 2 TD’s in a single game this season. He gets a potential rebound spot in Week 14 against a disappointing Jaguars defense, but he’s almost impossible to trust, especially in a playoff game.
- DAWSON KNOX (3 Points)
- The Bills exciting rookie was unable to get anything going on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys. As a whole, Buffalo had a field day against the Dallas defense, but Knox was sadly left out in the cold in favor of the Cole Beasley and Devin Singletary show. Knox has been an above-average addition to Buffalo’s offense in his first season, but he’ll continue to be nothing more than a TD dependent waiver option for the fantasy playoffs.
- MINNESOTA D/ST (8 points)
- The Vikings defense played hard and worked themselves into a position to upset the Seahawks on Monday Night Football this past week. They pressured Russell Wilson effectively, sacking him multiple times, picking off one of his passes and coming up with a fumble return/TD. Yet, despite all of this, they allowed 34 points, and in the biggest moment of the game, their special teams failed them by fumbling the ball away. This unit has the individual star power to blow up games, with players like Danielle Hunter, Anthony Barr, and Harrison Smith, but their secondary (particularly Xavier Rhodes) has been their undoing. They get an exploitable match-up in Week 14 against the Detroit Lions and their 3rd string quarterback.
- MARQUISE BROWN (1 point)
- The Baltimore Ravens “run first, ask questions later” approach continued to hinder the fantasy value of Brown in Sunday’s marquee match-up. The rookie speedster has had his share of blow-up performances in 2019, but those have proven to be outliers as the season has gone on. Brown’s four double-digit fantasy finishes in thirteen weeks simply don’t represent a floor stable enough for owners to trust him as anything more than a match-up based FLEX option in the playoffs. The fact that his four double-digit performances were each against bottom-half defenses (MIA/ARZ/LAR/CIN) only makes Brown easier to shy away from in a tough Week 14 match-up with the Buffalo Bills.
WHERE WE MISSED:
- JOE MIXON (15 Points)
- Mixon avoided the bust label in Week 13 by the thinnest of margins. His trip to the end-zone in Cincinnati’s win over the Jets masked an otherwise pedestrian performance. On the day, Mixon handled 23 touches for a combined 70 yards. Having long-time QB Andy Dalton back under center looked to revitalize the Bengals offense, their 22 points in this contest were the most the team had scored since Week 5. Yet, despite all of these positives, Mixon had his worst rushing performance of the month. Coming into this game Mixon had rushed for (114, 86, 79 yards) over his past three contests, scoring just once in those three games. His TD this past week saved his owners from further frustration, but he’ll be a dicey start in Week 14 when Cincinnati visits the Browns in Cleveland. Mixon should be viewed as a mid-tier RB2 for round one of the fantasy playoffs.
- DEEBO SAMUEL (13 Points)
- The rookie year breakout of Deebo Samuel in San Francisco continued in the biggest game of Week 13. The young wide-out has now produced double-digit fantasy finishes in four of his last five contests. Samuel hasn’t seen a ton of volume in the passing game lately (just 6 targets in the past two games), but he’s made the most of his opportunities, catching 4 of 6 for a combined 91 yards and 2 TDs. His deep touchdown grab was San Francisco’s lone passing score on a day where points came in short supply for both teams. It’s a testament to his growth as a player that he was called upon to win a tough match-up downfield by his Quarterback. He came up with the grab, and looked every bit like a star of the future for the Niners, even in defeat. We anticipate San Francisco getting Samuel even more involved this Sunday in another match-up of NFC Titans as the Niners face the New Orleans Saints. He should be viewed as a low-end WR2 with strong FLEX consideration for Week 14.
Now, with that taken care of, let’s see who made the list this week:
QUARTERBACK: MATT RYAN (Atlanta Falcons)
The tale of the 2019 Atlanta Falcons is one of the more confusing ones to tell. Few people were singing their praises as Super Bowl favorites, but almost no one expected the steep fall from grace we’ve seen from them this year. Following a short burst of energy coming out of their bye week, the Falcons have settled back into their 2019 role as a disappointment.
With a (3-9) record to their name and back to back divisional losses in the past two weeks, Atlanta has the look of a defeated team, and their quarterback has been a major reason for those defeats. Despite starting the year strong, Matt Ryan has become a 50/50 starter for fantasy purposes. Ryan holds a middling TD/INT ratio of (5/4) over his last four starts and has eclipsed 300 passing yards in only two of those games.
This week he faces a third straight division rival in the Carolina Panthers, a team that Ryan struggled to produce against back in Week 11. Despite defeating Carolina in that contest (29-3), Ryan only threw a single touchdown pass and posted a fantasy finish of just 16 points. Getting Julio Jones and Austin Hooper back from injury will undoubtedly boost the floor for his production, but we don’t believe Ryan will rise to the challenge in what is essentially a meaningless Week 14 contest.
RUNNING BACK: DARWIN THOMPSON (Kansas City Chiefs)
Coming into the 2019 draft season Darwin Thompson was a sneaky late-round selection of savvy owners all across the country. Thompson had impressed both the Chiefs coaching staff and fantasy players with his performances in Kansas City’s preseason games and had built a bit of a reputation for himself as a dark horse to take over the team’s backfield.
Through over three-quarters of the fantasy season, that didn’t come to fruition. Thompson was buried under the committee of Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams for over three months, until this past week. Thompson got his opportunity in Week 13’s drubbing of the Oakland Raiders, and he seized it, touching the ball 11 times for 44 yards & scoring his first NFL touchdown in the process.
Thompson makes this week’s report because we know that there are owners out there that have waited for this day to come. They’re chomping at the bit to believe that “preseason Thompson” has arrived on the big stage, and that may just come to fruition soon. However, it will not happen at the expense of the New England Patriots in Week 14.
New England will be looking to re-establish itself as a dominant defense after losing in convincing fashion to the Texans last week. Kansas City simply has too many other weapons to turn to for us to believe Thompson will get enough work to justify a start in Round one of the fantasy playoffs. Sit him and see how he performs before making him a roster regular.
WIDE RECEIVER: EMMANUEL SANDERS (San Francisco 49ers)
Those who have been reading our reports since the beginning of the season know exactly why Emmanuel Sanders in on the write up this week. Two words, one name: Marshon Lattimore.
The Saints cornerback has been one of the very best defensive backs in the NFL this season, and Sanders is still on the mend from his rib injury he sustained back in Week 10. Sanders’ 22 point blow up performance in his first game in crimson and gold feels like it happened an eternity ago. The veteran WR has accrued a total of 10 fantasy points over the last month, and that includes a repeat match-up with the team he put up 22 points against (Arizona Cardinals).
Sanders simply has not been the same player since the rib injury against Seattle, and we find it impossible to recommend playing him against one of the leagues best in Week 14. If you want to start a 49ers receiver we recommend looking to Deebo Samuel instead.
TIGHT END: JARED COOK (New Orleans Saints)
Sticking with the San Francisco/New Orleans matchup, we have Jared Cook as our tight end to watch out for in Week 14. As a whole, Jared Cook has been an up and down weekly start in 2019. His four touchdowns and 459 yards receiving are nearly half of the production he had in 2018 with the Oakland Raiders, but his weekly target floor over the past month (averaging 6 targets per contest) has made him a valuable starting option down the stretch.
This week should be one to forget for him, as the Saints are set to face off against a 49ers defense that has given up the fewest yards (321 yards) and fantasy points per contest (4 points) to the tight end position this year. Drew Brees has been known to work wonders in the Superdome throughout his career, but the Saints’ entire offense should be viewed with skepticism against this San Francisco unit, especially Cook.
DEFENSE: SEATTLE D/ST
For most of the 2019 season folks around the precinct have been referring to the Seahawks defense as “the Chiefs, if they got turnovers”. That admittedly long-winded, snarky moniker is also an apt one to describe how Seattle has been winning games this year. The MVP caliber play of Russell Wilson has acted as the tide that’s raised all boats in the Rain City this season.
Wilson’s stellar play has allowed Seattle to make mistakes and still win games up until this point through their ability to constantly score almost 30 points per game. That is where the comparison to the Chiefs’ situation with Patrick Mahomes comes in. Both teams rely almost entirely on their offense’s ability to bury opposing defenses early so that their struggling defenses can get creative and come up with big plays.
We believe the Seahawks will have trouble sealing the deal in Week 14. Seattle has won all five of its last games despite giving up 24 or more points in three of them. On the year, their defense has allowed 24 or more points in eight of thirteen contests, including 29 points to their Week 14 opponent, the Los Angeles Rams.
Goff and company seemed to right the ship of their struggling offense this past week, and LA is still fighting for the second wild-card spot in the NFC. The opportunity to secure that spot while knocking Seattle from its perch atop the division is one the Rams will revel in. This one has the look of a shoot-out, and we recommend steering clear of both defenses.
PRIMARY SUSPECT: TERRY MCLAURIN (Washington Redskins)
One of the more understated breakout performers of the year finds himself as our primary suspect this week. Terry McLaurin or “Scary Terry” as he’s quickly become known, has been a revelation for a struggling Redskins roster this season.
The rookie has established himself as the team’s top WR and has placed himself in the conversation of the most exciting young talents at the position. The tandem of McLaurin and running back Derrius Guice has given Washington fans something to be excited about for the future, but they’ll have to hold their applause in Week 14. You see, for all of the accolades that McLaurin has rightfully been showered with, he hasn’t exactly been consistent for fantasy purposes.
His five touchdowns this season were all scored within the first six weeks of the year, and they came against primarily low-end secondaries (PHI/DAL/MIA), with the Bears being a lone exception. Since Week 6, McLaurin has fallen off the fantasy map. He hasn’t had a double-digit fantasy finish since that Week 6 game against the Dolphins, and he hasn’t even sniffed 100 receiving yards since that game either.
His Week 14 matchup with Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander will be a tough one, and with a fellow rookie in Dwayne Haskins under center, we find it impossible to trust Terry in this one. Steer clear of the stand-out, and come back to him in Weeks 15/16 against Philly and the NY Giants.
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