“Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection, we can catch excellence.” – Vince Lombardi.
Loss is inevitable in the world of sports. In my main league, I am 0-2 with the highest-scoring team, yet I have the most points scored against. When these types of events happen, do not capitulate quickly, friends. One of the most important things that is preached when on the path of building yourself is to start by making your bed first thing in the morning.
Developing routines is crucial for success in virtually everything. Every week, I write down the matchup of the teams and put their projected point total and the over/under beside them. I then write down every player I think could be successful and leave their salaries out. Here is an example:
KC -9.5 (30.5) vs. CHI (18) +9.5 O/U 48.5
QB Mahomes KC
RB Pacheco KC
RB McKinnon KC
WR Moore KC
TE Kelce KC
QB Fields CHI
RB Herbert CHI
WR Moore CHI
TE Kmet CHI
This is what I like to call ‘making the bed’ during my routine of first look at the games. Just pull anything your gut says and write it down. When you go back to review it with salaries, your mind will correct your initial decision. You will notice the ownership projections will trend with the initial players you wrote down and thought you had a lock in play.
Using the example above, Mahomes is projected to be the 3rd highest-owned QB at 11%. Fields is rocking a shallow ownership projection of 2%! Could Fields rush for 100 yards, run one in, and throw one in? We know his floor and his ceiling make this possible. Chicago is still projected to get 18 points, and in fantasy, contrarian is how you win.
Now for the comeback player if Mahomes is gun-slinging it all game. Kelce is at 13% currently, and that’s chalk you may want to avoid. Skyy Moore sticks out if I look at the names of other targets I wrote down. Now at a 1% ownership, he showed he can take three catches on four targets and churn them into 70 yards and a TD.
Once you have a routine down, you will start to see things clearly and how you can get different results by looking at the same information as everyone else. More importantly, you can examine your process and where to improve.
Now, let’s get to the picks!
Week 3 ‘Pick-Six’ Picks
1) Lamar Jackson QB, BAL $7,700 – The third-highest projected QB for points this week is at 6% ownership. Few QBs step on the field every Sunday with a ceiling like Jackson’s. The backfield is banged up, and Lamar is primed for a big game here with an o-line currently ranked 8th overall. Lamar is an excellent cash game play this week and has tournament-breaking potential. A QB/WR/TE stack is viable here, and I will get some exposure.
2) Derrick Henry RB, TEN $7,400 – 40 rushing attempts and seven targets in two games. Yes, he is facing a stout Browns DST, but we are talking death by a thousand paper cuts here. Henry only has 4% ownership, and there are some cheap options this week at RB. The workload is what I find attractive this week. Henry can take a screen pass to the crib, no matter the game script. Most of the offense goes through Henry, and this is a safe floor with great potential.
3) Stefon Diggs WR, BUF $8,100 – I am surprised by this week’s selection. I try to avoid apparent plays, but Diggs doesn’t fit that mold this week. With QB Allen and Diggs drawing high salaries, their ownership is low. With 20 targets in two games and a 26.7% target share, this is too much to pass over. With so many people on Jefferson, Allen, and Williams in a projected shootout, this pivot can pay out just as easily.
4) Taysom Hill TE, NO $3,300 – Did you ever go over to a friend’s house and they had a game genie, and you thought to yourself, “That’s not fair!” With RB Kamara still one week from his suspension being served and Jamaal Williams being placed on IR, this smells like a Hill week. The Swiss Army knife could throw one in, run one in, catch one; the possibilities are endless. I am willing to gamble in a week where I want to save and spend up at QB, RB, and WR.
5) K.J. Osborn WR, MIN $4,000 – In the highest projected scoring game of the week, I am drawn heavily to Osborn. What a superb flex play; he is cheap and ranks third for targets on a pass-first offense. If this game goes nuclear, Osborn could be the cog in the machine to keep this game churning if the Chargers game plan for Jefferson. What a great way to get exposure at a 5% ownership player who can pop for 100 yards and a TD.
6) Saints DST, NO $2,900 – “We are all equal in the fact that we are all different.” – C. Joybell C. The Bills will draw the highest ownership this week, currently at a 16% projection. Saving at the DST is a bonus if you hit pay dirt. New Orleans gives us leverage for the same price as Buffalo. With many chalk plays, you will run into similar lineup construction, and with DSTs matching prices and a 1% ownership, I am intrigued. Coincidently, the Saints and the Bills are tied for 4th fewest points scored against with 32. There is only a five-yard difference between them for total yards allowed. They both have four takeaways; the Saints have seven sacks, while the Bills only have three.
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