We have a fun week of betting this week with lots of high-profile matchups (and some low-profile bad matchups). Let’s see if we can find some winners!
We went over 50% last week and would have gone 4/4 on teasers if not for the Chiefs losing to the Broncos for the first time in over five years. Over/unders also seem to be getting back on track.
Hopefully, we will be able to get the good times rolling and pick some more winners this week; let’s get to it.
6-point Teaser of the Week
Saints (-2.5) vs Bears – The Bears got to play on national TV last Sunday night, and boy, did they show why they had the 1st overall pick in last year’s draft. Tyson Bagent turned back into a pumpkin which is no surprise now that defensive coordinators have film on him. While the offensive woes were pretty predictable with a backup rookie QB under center, the defensive struggles from the Bears last week are more concerning as it seemed that side might have been making positive strides (they gave up 20 points or less in the previous three games) but against the Charges showed big regression.
While Derek Carr is no Justin Herbert, he is good enough to carve up this Bears’ defense, especially with all the weapons he has. While I think the addition of Montez Sweat will help the Bears’ defense, it will probably take him longer than one week to get acclimated to his new team. While the Saints’ defense hasn’t dominated this year, they have enough talent to stop a weak Bears attack. While it’s hard to trust Carr to cover a big spread straight up, I like getting the 2.5 in a teaser—Saints by a field goal.
Ravens (ML) vs Seahawks – The Ravens very well may be the best overall team at this point of the season and I love their matchup against Seattle. Just like the Sweat deal for Chicago, I think Leonard Williams will improve the Seattle defense, but it may take more than five days to get used to his new team and system. While Seattle’s defense has looked good the last four weeks, they have played Daniel Jones, a still-hurt Joe Burrow who could barely move, Joshua Dobbs, and PJ Walker at QB (who basically gave them the game last week).
Lamar Jackson is obviously in another level of QB than all of those guys (other than when Burrow is healthy), and I expect him to tear up this Seahawks defense, especially in the run game. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawk’s questionable O-line is going against a Ravens defense that leads the league in sacks, it sounds like a recipe for some Geno Smith turnovers. While the line at 6 is tough to buy into, I love the Ravens in a teaser that gets them to just win baby.
7-point Teaser of the Week
Bills (+9.5) at Bengals – This is a rematch of last year’s AFC playoff matchup, where the Bengals took down the Bills in Buffalo to end their season, along with a rematch of the 2022 regular season game that was suspended and canceled after Demar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the field after making a tackle. Needless to say, there will be a lot of emotions for both teams, both on and off the field.
For a narrative-based argument, it’s hard not to side with the Bills here, who want to avenge their playoff loss last year, along with winning the game for Demar. Joe Burrow and the Bengals finally looked healthy last week, making them the favorites in this game, something we welcome with open arms as it means more points for us and the underdogs. I think this will be a tight game throughout, and I think getting either team at over a touchdown is a deal. Let’s take the Bills to get an emotional cover.
Browns (-2.5) vs Cardinals – It appears for now that Kyler Murray won’t be back this week, which means the Cardinals will be led by rookie Clayton Tune, which should be music to the ears of Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defense. The Browns gave a game away last week against Seattle, so I expect them to come out very ready to go for this one in a nice get-right game. It also appears that Watson will be back for the Browns at QB, and while he hasn’t been amazing, he is still an upgrade over PJ Walker. Get in now, as this line will keep rising.
Bonus Teaser of the Week: The wake-up early teaser (6 points)
Dolphins at Chiefs (+4.5)/Dolphins at Chiefs over 45 – Germany may get one of the games of the year with a battle of two top AFC teams playing in Frankfurt (where hot dogs were invented). If you’re getting up for this early start time (6:30 a.m. start time on the West Coast, yikes!), then you’re taking the over as we hope this is a back-and-forth entertaining battle. I’ll also take the Chiefs, who not only have the QB advantage but also the better defense, even though getting the Dolphins at over a field goal looks pretty tasty too. Additionally, a bonus prop bet that I have to bet on this week is Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown against his old team; the Cheetah will be out for blood Sunday morning.
Overs of the week
Cowboys at Eagles (Over 47) – It makes me a little nervous taking an over in a division matchup, but these two teams love meeting up for high-scoring, entertaining matchups. 4 of the last 5 Dallas/Philly matchups have gone over this number, with the only one not getting over being a very close 43 points. With Diggs out for the year for Dallas, they just don’t have the corners to contain AJ Brown and Devonte Smith. On the opposite side, Dak and the Cowboys have looked as good as they have all year, and Ceedee Lamb should be able to take advantage of a weak Eagles secondary. Grab the over and watch these two go back and forth in a great afternoon battle.
Bills at Bengals (Over 50.5) – The Buffalo Bills defense has been up and down lately after suffering lots of injuries to key players. Unfortunately for them, they get a Bengals offense this week that finally looks healthy and back to their old selves. If Joe Burrow can continue his great play from last week, then that will force Josh Allen and the Bills to match in what could be a high-scoring affair. After having to suffer through a brutal game last Sunday night, sit back with your popcorn for this one, as it should be as good as it gets.
Unders of the week
Cardinals at Browns (Under 38.5) – The Cardinals are going with Clayton Tune, it seems (even if Kyler plays, I’m not too worried about him as it’s his first game off serious knee surgery), and that seems like a disaster against Myles Garrett and this very solid defense. It could be a blood bath for a team in the Cardinals that seems to be fully invested in tanking this season.
The Browns will be getting Watson back at QB, but coming off an injury, I expect the Browns to look to run early and often, running out the clock and getting out of this week with an easy win. Even before his injury, Watson didn’t look like his old self and looked average at best, so I don’t see the Browns piling on enough points here to get the over themselves. Take the under and look away; this game will be ugly from the coin toss.
Rams at Packers (Under 38) – In my opinion, Jordan Love is not the guy, and it seems like Matt LaFleur needed Aaron Rodgers a lot more than the opposite was around. The Packers offense has not mustered more than 20 points in their last five games, and somehow, they look worse and worse every week. To match the Packers’ offensive woes, the Rams will be countering with either Brett Rypien or an injured Matthew Stafford. This looks like it could be a very ugly game between two backup-level QBs; we’ll be watching the clock and hoping for no points.
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